“…by ignoring the spirit if not the letter of the Geneva Conventions, the U.S.* is endangering the lives of service members in this and subsequent conflicts.”
*and Australia
I was wondering this today, and Faine puts it in a much more sophisticated way, but what’s the term for the basic ability to imagine the consequences of actions? Like object permanence, but for blocks falling over.
Strategy is fundamentally all about developing a sophisticated theory of the mind of one’s opponent.
With MAGA’s Iran Adventure, guess we’re going to see what a modern war almost totally devoid of anything we’d call “strategy” looks like.
“MAGA’s fundamental shared quality is a total lack of theory of mind for other people” is a theory that keeps getting validated by reality - look at almost every decision they’ve made in the war with Iran, and how they seem constantly surprised by the unanticipated actions of other parties.
Here’s me in the Guardian today.
The Aukus submarine pact has dragged Australia into the Trump administration’s illegal war on Iran in all but name. This was all entirely forseeable.
You’re absolutely right, Jon, and that’s what I meant, too. The Australian PM said the Australian crew “did not participate” - that would not have been an option for them, and they were put in that position by a government that failed to understand the risks of Aukus under Trump.
There is no “not participating”.
So they didn’t “participate”, they just…watched? They watched as their co-crew members left people to drown at sea? That’s in accordance with Australian law and Australian policy? I cannot even
And what was so secret yesterday that is not secret enough today for the prime minister to keep it hidden?
He actually said Australians being on the sub is "one of the big pluses behind the Aukus arrangements". What the fuck are we doing
Penny Wong refuses to say if any Australian crew onboard US submarine that sank Iranian warship
Is Australia at war with Iran? Or do we not disclose that for operational and security reasons?
Appalling. Are we now legitimate military targets? What does the government say to the Iranian Australians living here and abroad. Shameful
What does the “international rules-based order” the Australian government is so keen on say about leaving people to drown?
So
Put more simply: were there any Australians on the US submarine that just attacked and sunk an Iranian ship in international waters? Does the Australian government know the answer?
live.thepoint.com.au/2026/03/the-...
So – was the submarine that sunk the Iranian warship a Virginia class? Did it visit the Australian Navy base HMAS Stirling in WA on its way to its Indian Ocean deployment? If so, did any Australian crew join the submarine?
Was Australia involved in the operation off Sri Lanka?
In Senate Estimates in October, the Chief of the Australian Navy said:
“At present there are more than 50 Australians serving on US fast-attack submarines based out of Pearl Harbor. We won’t go into precise numbers, but, suffice to say, that number is growing.”
As part of the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal, Australian crew are now embedded on US-flagged Virginia-class submarines. One defence report from November 2025 noted that “one in 10 crew members” on US nuclear-powered attack submarines “is Australian”.
www.defence.gov.au/news-events/...
Is Australia already involved in the US and Israel's illegal war on Iran?
This morning, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that a US submarine sunk an Iranian ship in international waters off the coast of Sri Lanka.
Best fact checker ever! Thanks Lauren. Really deeply wishing things were not as they are.
4 & 5. @emmashortis.bsky.social 's Our Exceptional Friend* and After America, on policy as contingency (things do *not* have to be the way they are.)
publishing.hardiegrant.com/en-au/books/...
www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/after-...
*Full disclosure, I fact-checked this book; it was immense fun.
When we talk about the end of the 'rules based order' we also need to consider that Hegseth, more than anyone, embodies a repudiation of a key norm of that era: killing is inherently bad and you must do as little of it as you can. That's a bigger worry than whether the UN or WTO still matters etc.
Next weekend - don’t miss @emmashortis.bsky.social talking all things AUKUS with @davidshoebridge.bsky.social and Dr Jamie Reilly.
🗓️ Saturday 14 March
⏱️6-8pm
📍Main Hall, Pennant Hills Community Centre, Pennant Hills NSW
Register here: https://events.humanitix.com/aukus-public-meeting
Just unbelievable how stupid everything is
It happened at a time of his choosing
NEWS: Americans were told to evacuate the Middle East — but the State Dept is not helping them do it.
We called the State hotline. First thing you hear is an automated message: "Do not rely on the U.S. government for assisted departure or evacuation."
Screenshot from live blog: with Trump quote: "Spain actually said that we can't use their bases... we could use that base if we want. "We could just fly in and use it. Nobody's going to tell us not to use it."
I’m sure those Aukus submarines will be all ours though. Under Australian sovereign control and all that.
