I also look at Ahmad al-Sharaa’s trajectory, and what it tells us about Islamism once it merges with state power. Full piece: open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
04.02.2026 08:42
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I also look at Ahmad al-Sharaa’s trajectory, and what it tells us about Islamism once it merges with state power. Full piece: open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
What struck me most was how quickly familiar languages returned. Betrayal, nationalism, old grievances. Among Kurds, Arabs and Turks alike, these tropes resurfaced almost instinctively.
The deal with Damascus did not come out of nowhere, but it still marks a sharp contraction of Kurdish political horizons in Syria.
Over the past weeks, a series of miscalculations, fraying alliances and external recalibrations have led to the rapid unravelling of the Kurdish autonomy project in northern Syria.
I’d be interested to hear how others are thinking about protest, survival, and solidarity right now. open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
Abdalla’s work, the memory of dear Hrant Dink, and literature on contentious politics and authoritarian resilience to think about how change accumulates quietly, unevenly, and over time.
Moving between Tahrir, Palestine, and Iran, I want to reflect on revolutions without revolutionaries, on everyday resistance under repression, and on why framing protests in terms of success or failure often misses the point.
Recently I watched actor @khalidabdalla.bsky.social ’s play Nowhere which opens onto a wider conversation about protest, endurance, and what political mobilisation leaves behind when it does not topple power.
Cornering the Kurds in Rojava while Kurds inside Turkey watch closely carries long-term risks. The most destabilising outcome is not resistance alone, but the deepening conviction among Kurdish youth that no one can be trusted. My piece: open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
he agreement now on the table delivers almost everything TR wanted: SDF forces absorbed individually, autonomy dismantled, borders and energy resources handed over. Pro-govt papers in Turkey are celebrating. But does this produces stability or simply postpones a far more dangerous reckoning.
Trump’s meeting with Ahmad al-Sharaa marked the decisive shift. Saudi Arabia and Turkey had already invested heavily in him. Washington joined that investment. Israel accepted it. The Kurds did not want to believe this was the new balance of power.
Many feared this moment was coming. It is now unfolding. Syrian govt forces are pushing deeper into Kurdish-held areas in northeastern Syria, forcing the SDF out, while Kurdish fighters prepare to defend what remains. A ceasefire is in place until Hasekeh is delivered to the govt or else...
However, do not assume that the Khamenei regime will necessarily fall here and now. It may, but it may also take time. Months, or longer. And even then, the immediate aftermath is unlikely to be a bed of roses. open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
And there is something chilling in seeing how the Shah’s brutal crackdown on protests led by Khomeini’s followers in 1978–79 mirrors the clerical regime’s violence against protesters today.
You may be struck, as I was, by how familiar the process looks. The authoritarianism, corruption, and accumulating unrest of the years leading up to 1979 echo uncomfortably in the present.
How does a slogan turn into a shared belief, and belief into mass action? And when a dictatorship collapses, what determines whether what follows is liberation, or simply another form of constraint?
In 1979, almost no one believed the Shah would fall until he did. Intelligence agencies, opposition leaders, and foreign governments all misread the moment. Why? When does repression stop containing dissent and start feeding it?
These concepts have acquired a renewed, urgent relevance as Trump signals a fresh outing for his territorial ambitions—this time eyeing the mineral-rich Greenland. ALSO in this piece : Other perilous developments in Iran and Syria: open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
To understand the current moment, one must unpack the mechanics of "Dutch disease," the "honeypot trap," and the hollow stability of ‘rentierism.’
The Middle East remains the quintessential laboratory for these pathologies. What is this curse, truly, and how does it play out across both domestic social contracts and international power plays?
The capture of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas has compelled a necessary return to the study of the "oil curse"—or resource curse—a paradox where geological abundance serves as a grim catalyst for institutional ruin, endemic conflict, and predatory foreign intervention.
My book is recommended by @ezgibasaran.bsky.social on her interesting blog on political devolopments in Turkey and Middle East: www.angleanchorvoice.co.uk/p/books-to-g...
Shall we think this through together, carefully, without false optimism and without surrender? I’d genuinely like to know how others are sitting with this moment. open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
And then the harder question: what does hope mean when progress no longer feels guaranteed? If historical progress is a myth, how do we hold on to the possibility of better politics, and a more livable climate, for our children?
As the year ends, I find myself wondering how politics feels to you right now. Not in terms of positions or camps, but as a lived condition. Does it feel degraded, repetitive, increasingly shameless? Enshittified?
A media scandal in Turkey is not really about scandal.
It is about protection collapsing, intelligence rivalries, and elite factionalism as succession looms.
This is War of Succession in Turkey, Vol. 2. Sex, Drugs and Politics of Power - open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
A year after Assad, Syria stands between relief and dread. Minorities remain cautious, sectarianisation still shapes politics and the new order under Sharaa feels both durable but also unpredictable. Here I look at at how sectarianism was made and why it persists open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
One element often overlooked is TR’s structural strength over Israel when it comes to the Kurds: a 1000 years of shared life between Turks and Kurds, and a Kurdish movement politically distant from Israel and historically closer to the Palestinian cause. More here: open.substack.com/pub/ezgibasa...
Talks between the SDF and the Sharaa govt in are also stuck. Turkey pressures Damascus to integrate the SDF into the Syrian army. Sharaa already wants a unitary Syria. The two positions meet but do not resolve.
The Kurdish movement reads this pace as a warning.
They have taken their decisive step by announcing the disbandment of the PKK. They have withdrawn from the sites near TR-Iraqi border - Zap and Metina. But the response on the Turkish side remains partial and hesitant.