Very happy to see my joint paper with Lisa Scheckenhofer and @feodorateti.bsky.social on sanction evasion for military goods published in this year's AEA P&P: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Scenarios:
๐ Symmetric โ U.S. raises and lowers tariffs to match partner levels
๐ Upward-only โ U.S. raises tariffs only where its own are lower
๐ฅ Flat 25% โ Uniform 25% tariff on all imports
What if the U.S. adjusted its tariffs on Germany and Switzerland to match what those countries charge?
This NZZ chart by @florianseliger.bsky.social &
@jonasoesch.ch shows how U.S. tariffs would rise under 3 "reciprocity" scenarios using my data from the Global Tariff Database
๐
@cesifo.org @tradediversion.bsky.social @chadbown.bsky.social
๐ด CAVEAT: The Global Tariff Database only includes applied MFN and preferential tariffs.
This means that recent trade war tariffs (since the first Trump administration), safeguards, anti-dumping tariffs, and any other types of tariffs are NOT included.
Even more importantly: This matters! I show that existing estimates of the trade elasticity are highly sensitive to tariff mismeasurement.
Big difference, right? Want to know how it's done? The details are in my paper: Teti (2024). ๐https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2024/working-paper/missing-tariffs
Now compare that to this cleaned version from the Global Tariff Database:
Finding clean data on tariffs is hard. Take Mexican import tariffs on U.S. products as an exampleโhereโs what you get from WITS:
๐จNew data alert!
A beta version of the Global Tariff Database is now available! ๐https://feodorateti.github.io
๐If you're looking for cross-country data on bilateral tariffs, this might help you.
๐ฃ We are delighted to announce that we'll be hosting the ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐ผ๐น ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ by the ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ๐!
The Summer School will take place in #Munich from ๐ญ๐ฒ โ ๐ญ๐ด ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ.
PhD and Postdocs can apply until 21 January ๐
www.cesifo.org/en/event/202...
