Steve Pye

Flyer for the Decarbonising the UK: 20 Years Later online public seminar with small portrait photos of Dr Gaurav Gharde and discussants Prof. Steve Pye and Yuxuan Chua

In 2005, the Tyndall Centre published a pioneering low-carbon scenario report for the UK. Two decades on, we're revisiting those scenarios with Dr Gaurav Gharde🌍️📊

Join us on Wed 11 March by registering at: buff.ly/ooRMsD3

#EnergyTransition #NetZeroUK #ClimateResearch

Addressing context-specific energy modelling risks and dynamics in low- and middle-income countries Nature Energy - Low- and middle-income countries face unique challenges when it comes to balancing growing energy needs with broader, long-term development needs. This Perspective argues for...

I've been privileged over the years to write a sequence energy modelling methodology papers with (now Professor 🥳) Steve Pye of UCL, along with a rotating cast of amazing people. The latest dropped today in Nature Energy ➡️ rdcu.be/e2tt6

Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures - Nature Energy New research finds that policymakers coleading energy scenario design has the potential both to better align scenarios with policymakers’ priorities and to question current policy, by substantially reducing energy use at half of the cost of technology-focused approaches.

New research highlights the importance of engaging policymakers in net-zero scenario approaches, finding that their close involvement could lead to scenarios with energy demand reductions of up to 45% in the case of the UK.

Rosebank oilfield: why more UK oil means more global emissions It’s a myth that producing oil with lower upstream emissions benefits the climate.

Alongside this report, co-author @fergusgreen.bsky.social has published a piece in the @uk.theconversation.com on why the Rosebank oil field development means more global emissions theconversation.com/rosebank-oil...

Interesting point - and one that speaks to ideas of managed transition, policy coordination etc. Structural demand change is locked in; it will be a question of how fast this moves and how a peak-decline in FF demand (this decade) changes investment sentiment towards clean tech and away from FF

Ever-rising height of car bonnets a ‘clear threat’ to children, report says High-fronted vehicles are more likely to kill and are on the rise in Europe with the UK an extreme example

Ever-rising height of car bonnets a ‘clear threat’ to children, report by @transenv.bsky.social says

- High-fronted SUVs are more likely to kill and are on the rise in Europe, with the UK an extreme example

Story by me
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

Finally!

Nearly a quarter of new UK homes now have heat pumps—big progress since we highlighted the fossil fuel problem with Ben Webster at openDemocracy in 2022.

Next step: fully implement the Future Homes Standard and end fossil fuels in new builds.

Rosebank oilfield: why more UK oil means more global emissions It’s a myth that producing oil with lower upstream emissions benefits the climate.

It’s a myth that producing oil with lower upstream emissions benefits the climate. @fergusgreen.bsky.social explains why arguments for the Rosebank oilfield are a bunch of baloney.

New oil and gas fields incompatible with Paris climate goals Opening any new North Sea oil and gas fields is incompatible with achieving the Paris Climate Agreement goals of limiting warming to 1.5°C or holding warming to “well below 2°C” relative to preindustr...

New UCL report: The Climate Implications of New Oil and Gas Fields in the UK – An overview of the evidence

Report finds that aligning with the Paris goals requires granting no further licenses or development consents for new oil and gas.

www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2025/ju...

@uclpolicylab.bsky.social

The government’s data release (based on provisional figures) is here: www.gov.uk/government/s...

The progress made in cutting UK emissions by cleaning up our energy supply should be celebrated - it shows what’s possible.

The progress made on reducing transport emissions (so far), is less inspiring

Future of Russian gas looking bleak as Ukraine turns off taps and Europe eyes ending all imports This article raises two crucial questions about the future role of Russian gas on global markets. First, will the EU...

In late 2024 shares in Russian state gas company Gazprom fell to a 16-year low.

In this article, Michael Bradshaw and @spye.bsky.social discuss the future of Russian gas supply, and how this could impact the future of Europe and Asia.

Via The Conversation.
ukerc.ac.uk/news/future-...

Great summary of a new paper in Joule reviewing the system impacts of wind power. I had the pleasure to contribute a tiny bit.

Future of Russian gas looking bleak as Ukraine turns off taps and Europe eyes ending all imports Despite a continuing market for LNG, the war in Ukraine has led to Europe turning away from Russian gas exports.

Great Conversation piece by Mike Bradshaw and @spye.bsky.social based on our recent Nature Communications article:
Future of Russian gas looking bleak as Ukraine turns off taps and Europe eyes ending all imports theconversation.com/future-of-ru...

New paper alert!🚨

This new research explores the far-reaching consequences of Russia’s loss of its largest market, Europe, and possible next steps for gas supply in Europe and Asia. Read the article in full on our website.

The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia Nature Communications - The war on Ukraine has reduced Russia’s ability to export its natural gas, notably to the European market. Under any future strategy, Russia struggles to regain...

The open access paper can be found here - rdcu.be/d5p5b

Among a number of aspects, it is this interdisciplinary approach, a dynamic process of creating and modelling scenarios (using the TIAM-UCL Integrated Assessment Model) that endeavour to capture key features of today’s energy geopolitics, that brings a distinctive approach to this research.

A key aspect of this work was the collaboration between i) social scientists interested in energy geopolitics and global gas security and ii) energy systems modellers focused on quantifying the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition.

A higher gas demand from China does not significantly improve prospects for Russia. Crucially, any future pivot to Asia is contingent on Chinese energy security and climate mitigation strategy and objectives.

The research finds that Russia struggles to regain pre-crisis gas export levels across a range of futures. Compared to 2020, Russia’s gas exports are down by 31–47% in 2040 where new markets are limited and by 13–38% under a pivot to Asia strategy.

2 scenarios are considered; i) Limited Markets - Russia struggles to gain new markets via LNG routes and new pipeline capacity; ii) Pivot to Asia - Russia sees more success in expanding pipeline capacity to China, & a more rapid scaling of LNG. Both considered different global gas demand levels.

In the paper, titled ‘The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia’ a scenario modelling approach is adopted to explore these implications. The research, funded by @ukerc.bsky.social, was undertaken by UCL Energy Institute, Warwick University and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

In the week when Russian gas ceased to flow into Europe via Ukrainian transit routes, a new paper in @naturecomms.bsky.social explores future prospects for Russian gas exports given a complete shutdown of the European market, which in 2021, accounted for 66% of its pipeline exports.

The first Bee Network service pulls out of a snowy Altrincham Interchange early this morning.

Despite all of the challenges - legal and meteorological - we did it!

After 40 years of damaging deregulation, Greater Manchester has this morning successfully retaken control of the whole its bus network. 🙌🏻

Why it’s in rich nations’ interests to fund climate finance Wealthy countries face a stark choice — pay poorer ones to help them decarbonize now or face escalating climate damages at home.

www.nature.com/articles/d41...

A December-thread, on heat pumps and grid congestion.
Like in most countries with a large share of gas-heated homes, the Dutch electricity distribution grids (low-voltage) aren't very strong. They can often handle a peak of around 1.5 kW (simultaneous) per home.
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Hanwell map 1930s

Plastics become growth driver for oil groups during energy transition Focusing more on petrochemicals offers a hedge against falling demand for vehicle fuel

As global talks start in Korea to contain the environmental scourge of plastics, this dynamic is worth being aware of

"at some point this decade, petrochemicals [mostly plastic] will become the main driver of oil demand growth"

Fossil fuel lobbyists already out in force

www.ft.com/content/a15f...

Milieudefensie vs. Shell - Summary of the ruling on appeal Read the summary of the ruling on appeal Climate Case Shell

Following the case brought by Millieudefensie against Shell, the Dutch Court of Appeal ruled that it cannot determine the % Shell must reduce its emissions (scope 1-3). Whilst disappointing, the ruling outlines key points providing basis for future action en.milieudefensie.nl/news/summary...

No, they said based on a conversation with me (knowing age of property, building retrofit measures put in to date, size of property etc.) that it would not be worth going through with £200 on site consultation.

a chart showing operational ccs being very low persisently, while scenarios show high expectations

a chart showing operational ccs being very low persisently, while scenarios show high expectations

a chart showing operational ccs being very low persisently, while scenarios show high expectations

Renewables are exceeding expectations - but so are emissions. Why?

Part of the fossil economy's staying power comes from false promises of techno-neutralisation. CCS is the OG machine saviour. A new blog for you, on why its second coming hasn't come.

ketanjoshi.co/2024/11/24/2...

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