Praxis Thoughts Haver

That's an objectively bad novel tho

A special election in the senate. Brave choice mr president!

Seems like cutting essential sales programs when you've already cut the div to avoid having to do this.

Flat crude is bid, VIX elevated, stonks rotating and sad, yet energy equities are not bid and curve in steep backwardation. Gonna need that curve to invert to get a supply response from the Permian.

Enjoyed the book, excited for the film. It must have been hard to get distro, so a lot of respect!

I know folks who own WI in frack well, the wells are marginally profitable at 60, very profitable at 80, and at 60 you still get MLP like tax shields on the cashflow, which makes them VERY attractive.

If the curve is priced above 80 for 6 months-12 months out, you put on some hedges and pump because costs are low and well efficiencies keep improving. As Landman so succinctly put it, 80 dollars is the sweet spot for the permian. As for speed, you can get rigs running pretty fast there's capacity

We're seeing this not just in capital markets, but many others. Gas stations re-priced overnight whereas it used to take weeks. Moneyball thinking has so permeated the world that second derivative moves are blindingly fast.

Think we need to factor Shale here. Short cycle gonna short cycle if curve prices above 80. Main risk is Trump says "EMERGENCY WAR POWERS" and no exports.

Did you go to high school with one of his kids? I went with Shane and he had a PT cruiser with flames on it. He was...kinda annoying

Public Banks give you a small cushion for actual deficit financing at the sub-sovereign level, which is key to Sewer Socialism imo. Knock on effects are lower muni yields because less muni paper and muni lender of last resort.

Avoid panicking too much as the US doesn't import much Nitrogen. There is plenty of local supply, price tho may be unfun.

American farmers buy Nitrogen that's made in the cornbelt. This is really a bigger concern for RoW

This is why I prefer BJs. That and you can use manufacturer's coupons to stack!

Given what happened in Rojava, they shouldn't.

The big ifs here are: What quality of kurds are we getting? YPG or Massoud Barzani's dogcatchers? What level of popular unrest amongst civilian Iranians will occur? Lots or a little?

The SDF/YPG was well armed by trump and were textbook perfect troops for close in air support. They'd get absurdly close to targets and paint them for US munitions. If you wanted to tie down 100k Iranian ground troops 50k well trained kurds with some A-10s could do it.

People saying "Wow arming the kurds to topple Iran sounds crazy" forget that arming Kurds to topple ISIS was Trump 1's most effective intervention. If a Kurdish militia can hold down IRGC with US air support, then the regime could be toppled by popular protests. That's a HUGE IF, but its not crazy.

Obviously one or any recs are appreciated! But like, no rush

Yeah, think the risks to refined products like nitrogen is higher as well as LNG. Not sure a lot else is too fucked given that Iran doesnt have unlimited drones or missiles

Development of Yahweh from random import god to monolatrous focus of worship. The persistence of Canaanite polytheism within the Hebrew Bible. Early christian creedal thought especially texts on early christology arguments (from crucifixion to writing of John gospel), stuff on the Sayings Gospel/Q

Developed a side interest in textual criticism and boy howdy, it is a *very* potent rabbit hole when your main focus is labor organizing and philosophy. Been listening to my NRSV (Apocrypha included ofc) on walks and been falling asleep to lectures about M source/Sayings gospel/"John the Dipper"

This is why you own $MUSA, RBOB vol=earnings power for the scaled low price c-store boys.

Skydance trades at BB+(6%-7%depending on maturity) and Oracle trades at BBB(4-7 depending on maturity), but this new entity likely rates lower than BB+, which likely puts it around 8%. I just don't see who is buying this debt below that.

Oh man, if the coupon is anywhere near I think it is (7-9%) they are turbofucked.

Cats, the only domesticated animal that we allow to treat us like shit because the people who like Cats secretly think they themselves are pieces of shit, but won't admit it. This is why I prefer dogs. I got self respect.

I have often described Dubai as "What if a Duty Free Shop had an army?" and boy howdy do the same idiots love it for the same reasons.

I have always described Dubai as "What if a Duty Free Shop had an army?"

Classic Patton bit

Think its basically this: Silver buyers are mostly degen retail and pod shops. Oil, Natty, Gasoline, and Nitrogen Ferts are all bid here and should moon if there's a proper shutdown of LNG/Oil export facilities and shipping capacity in the Straits. Sell silver, roll into fossil carbon.