Arun Advani!
12.08.2025 09:44
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Arun Advani!
I'm feeling rattled by today's announcements as a lucky person within the immigration system, and can't stop thinking how unsettling must it be to have such othering language used and pathways changed before you, when you don't have another country you can return to or resources to draw on.
Acknowledging that I am very lucky and economically privileged - I love the work I get to do here, that I can't do in NZ. 6 years ago, I chose to come to the UK.
But having your pathway to settlement & citizenship changed like this with an unclear bar to meet is v unsettling & v v v expensive.
Screengrab of the following text from the white paper, with "ten years" and "reduce the qualifying period" and "contributions to the UK economy and society highlighted in yellow. "It has been a long-standing principle that settlement in the UK is a privilege and not a right. Under the current system settlement is primarily qualified for on the basis of length of time spent in the UK alongside a knowledge of life test which is used to verify knowledge of British customs, history, traditions, laws and political system. 263. These criteria alone do not reflect our strongly held belief that people should contribute to the economy and society before gaining settled status in our country and they fail to promote integration, which limits the wider benefit from long term migration into the UK and increases pressure on public services. We will therefore reform the current rules around settlement through an expansion of the principle behind the Points-Based System, that individuals should earn their right to privileged immigration status in the UK through the longterm contribution they bring to our country. 264. This expansion of the Point-Based System will increase the standard qualifying period for settlement to ten years. 265. We will continue to offer a shorter pathway to settlement for non-UK dependants of British citizens to five years, provided they have remained compliant with their requirements, and we will retain existing safeguards to protect the vulnerable, including settlement rights for victims of domestic violence and abuse. 266. Through the expansion of the Point-Based System, individuals will also have the opportunity to reduce the qualifying period based on Points-Based contributions to the UK economy and society. We will consult on these changes later this year."
Plus, the plan has also left me unsure of my own status. Have I met the undisclosed threshold for "contributing to the UK economy and society" to fast track the new 10 year requirement?
Today's immigration white paper has been gutting to hear about. "An island of strangers" is such not the kind of language we should be hearing from the PM. It doesn't treat anyone with dignity, and some of the proposals raise big qs for sectors like care.
Screenshot of text from the i paper saying "“The theory that higher migration numbers necessarily lead to higher growth has been tested in the last four years,” he said. “We’ve had the highest net migration when the last government lost control, to nearly one million, and stagnant growth. And so that link doesn’t hold on that evidence.”
I can't think of anything else in the last 4 years that could have possibly meant weak economic growth.
Bar graph showing number low income households going without the essentials: May 2022 6.9 million Oct 2022 7.2 million May 2023 7.3 million Oct 2023 7.3 million May 2024 7 million Oct 2024 7 million
Today bills go up.
@jrf-uk.bsky.social October cost of living tracker found 60% of low income families had gone without essentials in the previous 6 months - a figure barely changed in 2.5 years.
This increased to 88% where a family receives disability benefits.
And that’s before the cuts
Extraordinary story just published in @thetimes.com
And one that rather gives the lie to the idea that the Government’s cuts to disability benefits is driven by a moral mission about work. It’s about fiscal rules…
www.thetimes.com/article/f80d...
Yesterday's welfare announcements have very concentrated impacts for individuals who lose eligibility (and some gains for others). Case studies just published - only the government knows how many people will suffer £9k losses. Shouldn't they tell us?
The government’s proposal in the health and disability green paper that people should have to be awarded 4 points for one of the daily living activities in order to receive PIP is absolutely mad. Thousands of disabled people will be thrown off PIP and pushed even further into poverty.
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall's speech today laid out plans to cut disability and sickness benefits by billions.
❌ No truly moral choice would leave disabled people without support designed to allow them to lead a dignified life, or facing hardship. 1/4
Cutting support for disabled people completely undermines some of the positive employment support changes proposed by Liz Kendall today.
The govt could have made these positive changes using their tax lever, putting the cost on those with the broadest shoulders, not some of the most vulnerable.
Thanks to @theguardian.com for covering @jrf-uk.bsky.social work (see www.theguardian.com/society/2025...). “A government that came to office pledging to end the moral scar of food bank use clearly should not be taking steps that could leave disabled people at greater risk of needing to use one.”
If these numbers in the Times are correct, these cuts would take a huge amount of money away from severely disabled people, and it’s completely morally indefensible.
Rachel Reeves needs to look to tax to address the fiscal situation, not our disability support.
Some news! After 5+ years of my dream job @jrf-uk.bsky.social, next week is my last. I think it's rare to really love your job. But having the best colleagues, and getting to work on such important issues everyday has meant I have.
Time to learn new things at the BBC which will be VERY different!
About to enter the wild world of trying to buy the world’s tiniest flat in London - does anyone have any recommendations for housing solicitors? Everyone I’ve talked to so far has only said PLEASE DO NOT USE THE ONE I DID which feels fun and alarming
1 in 7 workers experience ‘major earnings instability’.
Not having security and stability in earnings can seriously impact your ability to pay your bills and cover expenses. Especially if you don't have savings.
We've funded @resfoundation.bsky.social's report on unstable pay in the UK 🔽 1/3
Really brilliant to have worked with the team on unstable pay as @jrf-uk.bsky.social funded this work.
It helps to fill a huge data gap on month to month volatility of earnings from work - and shows low paid, young, and temporary workers are most likely to experience volatility. Do have a read!
Not to make my workplace sound unserious, but we have a meeting room called “Collabadabadoo”
April is looking v scary with the energy price cap increasing by 6.4%, and a huge suite of other bills about to increase too: water council tax, social rents.
Private rents are also still soaring (up ~9% on last year).
All the while benefits are only increasing by 1.7% and LHA stays frozen
Dire
The promise of growth, amid a backdrop of rising inflation, soaring rents, utility bills growing and a weak labour market won't boost living standards on it's own
Urgent action is needed from the government to unfreeze housing benefits and ensure our benefits system reflects the cost of essentials
Line graph showing disposable income after housing costs for the bottom 40% of households, from 2019 to 2029. Before housing costs income is broadly flat from 2024, with a dip in 2028. However housing costs continue to increase, means after housing costs income falls from 2024 to 2028.
Line graph showing disposable incomes after housing costs for quintiles, from 2019 to 2029. Households in the lowest 20% of incomes see the biggest proportionate fall in their incomes, while no income quintile sees improvement over the forecast period.
Our @jrf-uk.bsky.social projections show that living standards are set to fall over this parliament without further action from the government to support families' incomes and address costs.
While slightly lower increases than last month, these we are still seeing huge rises in rents that many are struggling to pay.
And with water, council tax, and energy bills set to rise again in April, alongside housing benefits remaining frozen and UC only increasing by 1.7%, it's a dire picture.
Inflation is up by 3%, but private rents are up by 8.7% across the UK and 11%(!!!) in London.
Across GB, it means paying ~£100 more per month on average since Jan 24, or ~£200 more per month since Jan 23.
In London, £220 more per month since Jan 24, or ~£400(!) more per month since Jan 23.
The @bankofengland.bsky.social forecasts expect consumer price inflation to increase to 3.7% over 2025
Families who are already struggling to pay their bills face rising energy and water bills 📈
They're in desperate need of more pounds in their pockets, as the Chancellor has promised 1/2
screenshot of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee report saying "The November Report projection was for CPI inflation to increase further in the near term, to around 2¾% by the second half of 2025. Headline inflation is now expected to rise more sharply, to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, in large part reflecting recent developments in global energy costs and regulated prices." with "3.7% in 2025 Q3" highlighted in yellow
All eyes on the BoE's (welcome) cut to the bank rate today, but really concerning that energy and water bills are set to push inflation up to 3.7% in Q3 this year.
With over 7 million low-income households already going without essentials, this is v bad news for putting pounds in peoples pockets.
Our new @jrf-uk.bsky.social report today shows we can't wait for growth to tackle poverty, and growth alone isn't going to do the job.
If we want living standards to improve for EVERYONE, and not just those with the most in their pockets, we need to invest in people, not just runways and roads.
We must also investment in our public services, which are crucial for rising living standards too. That investment is more than just runways and roads - it's also investment in ensuring that children don't grow up in cold homes, going to school hungry.
There's a lot that makes up what we need to do to boost growth in the UK. We absolutely must improve our woeful productivity levels, get people into good jobs that actually pay enough to live good lives, and make business, investment and development attractive.
But that's not all.
The Chancellor's speech today barely mentioned the people that make up the economy.
She started her speech saying that it's about pounds in people's pockets. But with 14.3 million people in poverty, including 4.3 million children, too many don't have the £'s that will help grow the economy.