My latest: why there can be no "peace through business" approach to Putin's Russia.
The history is clear.
Commerce doesn't tame hostile autocracies: it transfers power, technology, and $ into the hands of dictators who use it to destroy.
thehill.com/opinion/inte...
Panel 2: Ecocide & Environmental Crime was v good, esp Milena Serio explaining the legal implications of the international draft definition of ecocide, w/ @annackermann.bsky.social, Jonathon Turnbull, @daryatsymbalyuk.bsky.social. Moderator @kristinahook.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTiA...
Great initiative by @ponarseurasia.bsky.social. Journalists, please note the easy links to experts available for commentary.
If you know your Ukrainian history, pattern echoes Holodomor declarations:
-UA: naming the famine genocide, 4+ million killed & impunity of Stalin & Moscow; VS.
-RU: a vague & "shared" Soviet "tragedy."
Lack of accountability has always emboldened Moscow to kill again.
www.ft.com/content/6d78...
Find the Facts on Ukraine: Get answers from academics and experts available for commentary here:
t.co/HVMlk6au6k
As Trump continues efforts to pressure Ukraine into signing deal for control of their unmined rare earth minerals, reupping this piece by @kristinahook.bsky.social on how war in Donbas worsened environmental degradation after decades of industrialization & mining
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Even Ukraine's street art tells what its people are fighting for.
[my photo, Lviv, Sept 2024]
These strikes w/ "systematic expulsion of Ukrainians from their homes & ensuing demographic consequences...have been noted as a marker of genocide in other cases, including the UN Independent Inquiry on the targeting of the Yazidi protected group by ISIS"
newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/u...
Less than 1 year into Russia's escalation: 25% of Ukrainians reported "they did not have access to adequate heating, compounded by war-caused homelessness & shelter damage (w/60% of Ukrainians reporting their homes required war-related repairs)"
newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/u...
"On one day in mid-November (2022), 7 million Ukrainians were left without electricity, affecting food storage, heat, medical care, and sewage (complicating other public health concerns)."
newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/u...
"Russia’s mass attacks left millions without reliable daily power, reduced medical services, deepened poverty & its health consequences...& worsened the health of the acutely vulnerable (the elderly, newborns, and those with preexisting health concerns)"
newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/u...
"As Russia’s nationwide missile strikes increased in Sept 2022, World Health Organization named this 'escalation'...warning physical effects of civilian infrastructure targeting would increase strokes & heart attacks, pneumonia, hypothermia, & frostbite"
newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/u...
The International Rescue Committee’s Ukraine director "at the start of Ukraine’s heavy winter season, stat[ed]: “With no power source, and with damage to their shelter, surviving the winter will be incredibly difficult for a large number of people.”
newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/u...
Russian reactions show "knowledge & intent to impose conditions calculated to bring about the physical destruction of the Ukrainian people"
Here, Russian officials brag about missiles against Ukrainian civilians making it "impossible to survive" & call for more of them
x.com/JuliaDavisNe...
U.S. must note how easily Lavrov lies & how confident Russia is to lie about very easily disproven facts.
Russia's power attacks led to "17.7 million Ukrainians assessed to require humanitarian aid to survive winter" of 2022-23. Russia bragged about it 🧵⬇️
newlinesinstitute.org/wp-content/u...
"Putin announced he launched a "special military operation to deNazify Ukraine...the world learn[ed] horrifying details about the Russian military's rape, torture, and murder of civilians...DeNazification morphed into chilling call for 'de-Ukrainization.'"
thehill.com/opinion/inte...
Russian Foreign Ministry has never backed off open calls for genocide. Six months ago, press statement:
"Special military operation pursues timely objectives dealing w deNazifying & demilitarising Ukraine...Make no mistake, we will deliver on all these objectives"
mid.ru/en/foreign_p...
A reminder true last year & true today.
"Russia’s genocide in Ukraine is occurring in the context of the most documented war in history w/ characteristics of all 5 prohibited acts, while key figures including Russian President Putin routinely self-incriminate themselves."
The unanimous conclusion of @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social authors is that the only outcome in Ukraine that can safeguard the security of Europe is a convincing Ukrainian victory.
Western military support to Kyiv should be redoubled before it is too late.
Too much evidence exists in public record to deny realities of Russian crimes or🚨warning signs now.
Shaky ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war largely held for President Trump's 1st term.
But empowering Russia now will jeopardize US security & Pres. Trump's own historical legacy.
Meanwhile, Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression news should remind U.S. leaders that Russia's invasion & 11-year war against Ukraine is the world's most documented war.
Years of litigation ahead + countless reports, books, articles, video, etc.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
Emboldened Putin & Russian perpetrators will greatly escalate violence against Ukrainians.
In 2024, the House (incl Speaker Mike Johnson) overwhelmingly named Russia as committing "genocide" by 390-9 margin.
No one can claim they didn't see this coming.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
This⬆️ is the terrible logic of Putin kidnapping & militarizing thousands of Ukrainian (& Russian) kids.
Centuries-long pattern of Moscow doing this to raise expansionist armies. Russia does not intend to stay within its borders-or contained in Ukraine's.
edition.cnn.com/2023/05/03/o...
Like the Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia, Ukraine is a massive prize for expansionist Russia, even more so than 2022.
Moscow wants Ukraine's vast land, people, natural resources & ever-more powerful military industry + technology.
Hitler & Stalin knew this playbook. We must recognize it again.
The US will win or lose this war by centimeters.
If the US allows Russia to claim victory or hold ANY of Ukraine's recognized territory, Putin has won, demonstrating the new winning formula: Aggression + Atrocities.
New copycats will emerge. A global arms race will likely follow.
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not a faraway 'border issue,' but rather a direct assault on the US-led system of international rules.
It is therefore a direct referendum of US credibility on the world stage."
North Korea, Belarus, & Iran already testing & escalating...
Putin uses his war as a dark infomercial to the world, inviting other nations to question US strength & resolve.
Russia will argue it successfully deterred-even cowed-the US.
If an "economic mouse" is still seen as besting US tiger, many other vying powers will test boundaries.
My latest for the Atlantic Council reflects on the cost of appeasing Russian leaders for the crime of aggression: invasion, occupation, annexation.
What will be some of the costs if this policy is pursued? ⬇️🧵
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...
