Fire on manhattan bridge fucked up a number of them that wasn’t great
06.03.2026 21:36
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Fire on manhattan bridge fucked up a number of them that wasn’t great
Obviously it would be horrible for spurs but the Lehman analogy is bad. Spurs are like the least leveraged big club in the world.
i.e. I agree insofar as it weakens that will be because we're in recession not a cause of
If you look at recessions with payrolls ex-private education and health care and private education and healthcare as separate predictions, private education and healthcare is more or less a worthless indicator.
I don’t like this comparison!
But Spurs going down isn't going to be a one off for poorly run wealthy teams. Compression in points is here, just doesn't take that much in terms of poor squad building, injuries, and bad luck to make it happen when 18th is better than all but 20 continental teams. bsky.app/profile/mixe...
The expected points table in the premier league is very funny. Spurs absolutely deserve to be in a relegation battle but so do 7 other teams including Aston Villa.
one in three
Go get Dyche please
I don't know the answer to this but just to speculate, there's been a big surge in the estimate of the share of native born employment until very recently and I wonder if that changes the covered employment denominator
"Due to selection effects, they're sort of a gullible bunch" is a really wonderful nerd own
Feel extremely cross pressured here. Very happy Bernie takes the actual technology seriously but then lol Yudkowsky.
One day people will believe the vast literature that in any reasonably high profile race there are very few interventions that work like television ads.
Still Cornyn looks on track to way overperform the polls that had show Paxton with a lead in H2H
Markets also take the results to mean the runoff itself is much closer rather than the heavy favorite Paxton was coming into the night. Maybe suggests polls were wrong also about the H2H. kalshi.com/markets/kxse...
Oh I think Crockett voters will be like 99% Talarico. The online K-Hive style supporters do not represent the incredibly loyal backbone of the Democratic Party in Texas.
Really good night for John Cornyn. Don't love that for Dem odds.
I do think this was the key in handicapping this race. Polls have persistent biases that are knowable and web panels failing to capture Hispanic voters well is one of them. bsky.app/profile/wert...
I'm genuinely sad about this, in part because trading inefficient live markets is fun and I have degen tendencies, but there's still inefficiency before votes start coming in so that's fun.
At this point once votes start rolling in not even the election teens can keep up with Kalshi moves. Very rare they're seeing something market participants aren't
Talarico at 97% on Kalshi. Thin markets comparatively but margin around 9 is early median
I think post POTUS election years is when Nate goes into deep research mode.
Maine obviously a big issue, and people don't like Stevens for fair reasons but she'd be perfectly electable and McMorrow is going to win anyway a. Over the course of the past year Dems have gone from a 19% chance to a 43% chance of taking senate on Kalshi. House went from 74% to 81%
On the whole I think Democrats are going to come out way ahead on candidate quality than the GOP in the Senate (and Schumer did a pretty good job recruiting). Cooper, Peltola, Sherrod, Turek, Sharice Davids all seem to be good to great recruits.
We're getting a needle from @votehub.com tonight votehub.com/2026/03/03/i...
To some extent there’s just having access to internals I think. And then some not unreasonable unskewing.
I’m not really joking! The experience of human consciousness is something not far from putting a language model on top of a horny monkey and telling the computer to figure that shit out and the computer deciding it needed to tell itself stories about itself to make sense of what was happening.
New York and Massachusetts liberals moved there is the basic answer.
Anyway, I’ll believe LLMs conscious when they not only need to go to therapy but can’t make themselves go even though they need to. If there’s not an internal fight and akrasia to battle, then they don’t need consciousness to solve their problems.
I found the argument against p-zombies the most illuminating one for how I think about things. Those guys are just conscious and any argument against it is just an argument for dualism, which, well, see your early post.