Claudia Sahm 's Avatar

Claudia Sahm

@claudia-sahm

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

38,312
Followers
405
Following
636
Posts
12.11.2024
Joined
Posts Following

Latest posts by Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm

Chair Powell’s Birthday Message for Chairman Greenspan, March 6, 2026
Chair Powell’s Birthday Message for Chairman Greenspan, March 6, 2026 YouTube video by Federal Reserve

Here at the Fed, we are rationally exuberant to celebrate your 100th birthday with you. Happy birthday, Alan Greenspan!
youtu.be/lp1sJDa5MsI

06.03.2026 13:03 👍 93 🔁 12 💬 3 📌 8
Preview
AI + work: Understanding AI’s impact on the labor market - The Hamilton Project On March 10, the Budget Lab at Yale, The Hamilton Project, and Peterson Institute for International Economics will host an event on AI’s impact on the labor market.

What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market? On March 10, Peter Orszag, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and
@bencasselman.bsky.social an.bsky.social
will dive into the data and what we know: www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders...

04.03.2026 20:20 👍 17 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 1

@minneapolisfed.bsky.social’s recent Beige Book reports on some of the economic shock experienced in Minnesota during the recent immigration operation. Read more and watch this short recap from our regional econ team members @erickgarcialuna.bsky.social and Haley Chinander. #beigebook #econsky

05.03.2026 00:41 👍 20 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
Jack Dorsey Is Wrong: Pro-Worker AI Is Possible The fear that artificial intelligence will lead to mass layoffs is spreading. Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of the financial technology firm Block, laid off nearly half of its workforce last week. Citin...

The great @claudia-sahm.bsky.social in @opinion.bloomberg.com:

"In conversations about AI, it’s important to focus less on dystopian scenarios and more on ways to bring about an AI future that fosters shared prosperity."

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

04.03.2026 13:23 👍 19 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
Post image

“the federal government is an insurance company with an army" … on the nose today.

03.03.2026 21:48 👍 103 🔁 18 💬 9 📌 2
Post image Post image

Nice to be back at Denison this week. Giving a few talks and meeting with lots of students.

03.03.2026 19:21 👍 38 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
AI will leverage human capital, not displace it: MetLife’s Drew Matus Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metlife Investment Management, and Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, join 'Money Movers' to discuss AI's impact on the workforce.

More in the interview here: www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

27.02.2026 20:45 👍 14 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
Are Jack Dorsey's aggressive job cuts the start of an AI jobs apocalypse? Economists weigh in Economists question whether such moves signal a broader shift in the labor market or simply reflect company-specific adjustments.

"I would not extrapolate from Block to the whole U.S. economy,” Sahm said. “It’s important to understand that these AI tools — the direction you go with them really depends on the leadership. Automation, mass layoffs is not necessarily the only path forward.” www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/a...

27.02.2026 20:43 👍 34 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 1

Somewhat unrelated … your saying this week “You can’t spell tariffs without ffs“ made me laugh.

27.02.2026 17:49 👍 33 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

Aka the beginning of the end of Trump tariffs.

22.02.2026 21:52 👍 47 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 1

Narrator: This is not normal.

22.02.2026 21:51 👍 99 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 0

Note well, I fully agree with @steveliesman.bsky.social that section 122 is ridiculous. Illegal, too.

22.02.2026 21:04 👍 41 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

We are waaaaaay past "best look for the US" policy.

22.02.2026 21:02 👍 335 🔁 40 💬 6 📌 1

FAFO got found out this week!

22.02.2026 17:56 👍 37 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Lagarde on Jay Powell: I think Jay has this sort of inner strength and principled view of what his duty is, what his mandate is, and who he is accountable to: the American people and through the representatives and the senators.

21.02.2026 23:04 👍 22 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

No, that’s a lie.

21.02.2026 03:13 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The Supreme Court showed up today, and the power of the President has limits. That is huge, regardless of what the tariff rate is tomorrow.

21.02.2026 01:18 👍 473 🔁 57 💬 15 📌 2

There is so much research on the trend. Response rates have been falling for all kinds of surveys. Govt ones tend to have the highest response rate, so it's not just about distrust in govt but that's in the mix.

20.02.2026 21:32 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Preview
Trust in Numbers U.S. economic statistics are not being manipulated, but underinvestment has intensified.

We have had a flood of economic data recently, including employment, inflation, and GDP. I usually focus on analyzing the numbers, but I also found myself addressing questions about the agencies that produce them and whether the data can be trusted. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/trust-in-n...

20.02.2026 19:59 👍 63 🔁 12 💬 2 📌 0
Post image

WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “.. If your tariff policy is so unpopular that you have to bully the central bank into not talking about it, maybe it’s time for a new policy.”

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/kevi...

20.02.2026 11:15 👍 3591 🔁 1097 💬 79 📌 25
Post image

“.. she said senators should question .. Kevin Warsh about the matter ..”

@thehill.com #TruthPolice
thehill.com/business/574...

18.02.2026 23:03 👍 328 🔁 80 💬 11 📌 1

He got the nomination and should be subject to close scrutiny.

18.02.2026 17:09 👍 7 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

What would you suggest? Silence?

18.02.2026 16:42 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

What would you suggest?

18.02.2026 16:41 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

I want it on the record.

18.02.2026 16:36 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Kevin Warsh must be asked about this in his confirmation hearing. The Fed Chair has the ability to suppress research from the Fed. Will he if it disagrees with White House?

18.02.2026 16:29 👍 89 🔁 18 💬 4 📌 2
Post image

“We-can-do-this-the-easy-way-or-the-hard-way” but for economic studies. 🤡

@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

18.02.2026 15:16 👍 845 🔁 226 💬 57 📌 15

The American Statistical Association has an organizational sign-on letter urging Congress to exempt federal statistical agencies & units from Schedule Policy/Career.

Are you a member in any orgs that value accurate, timely info about the U.S.? Please consider signing
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

17.02.2026 20:57 👍 55 🔁 27 💬 2 📌 3

December was even lower.

17.02.2026 01:08 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

It’s really hard to self filter.

16.02.2026 23:36 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0