Lars Peder Haga

Su-35S Flanker-M of the "Russkie Vitiazi", "Blue 53" photographed from the side and slightly from the front. It has the Sukhoi factory logo under the cockpit in front and "Russkie Vitiazi" written in cyrillic under the rear of the cockpit. Two white air-to-air missiles are clearly visible under the wing.

6/6 That is, until last Friday, when the "Russkie Vitiazi" returned. It could be due to combat rotation of aircraft from Kola to the Ukrainian AO, or some kind of maintenance or training status issue.

Unless otherwise noted in the ALT text, all images are from bsky.app/profile/fors... X account

Screenshot from RuMOD video, with a Su-35S Flanker-M in the livery of the "Russkie Vityazi" filmed from a Tu-95MS Bear H. Posted on my X account at the time

5/6 And again April 3 2024, escorting the third consecutive strategic patrol. Since then, the "native" fighter regiments on the Kola peninsula returned to provide escort duty, with carrier capable (LOL) Su-33 Flanker-Ds from Severomorsk-3/Malyavr and MiG-31BM Foxhounds from Monchegorsk.

Two Su-35S Flanker-M fighter planes in front of the propellers of a Tu-95MS Bear-H cruise missile carrier. They are painted in the red, white and blue livery of the "Russkie Vityazi" aerobatic demonstration team. Screenshot from a RuMoD video published in February , posted to my X account

4/6 Then again on February 12 2024.

Su-30SM Flanker-H in the livery of the "Russie Vityazi" seen through the propellers of a Tu-95MS Bear-H. Screenshot from Rumod video via Krasnaya Zvezda. Originally posted by me on my X account

3/6 The Flankers of the "Russian Knights" are capable of carrying missiles and the pilots are supposed to be fully combat qualified. Neither is it the first time they have flown escorts for strategic bombers over the Barents. I first noted them accompanying two Bear-Hs September 14, 2023

The same Bear-H cruise missile carrier photographed from the side. Slightly in front of it and between it and the photographer is a Su-35S Flanker-M fighter plane. The Flanker is banking towards the photographer, presenting the topside to the camera. It is a large, twin-engined fighter, with a distinctive "stinger" jutting out to the rear between the engines and dual tail fins. The empennage and wings are painted blue, with narrow white and red bands along the forward edges. The fuselage in front of the wing root is painted white. It is possible to make out the silhouettes of two missiles under each wing.

2/6 This is probably related to their annual training program, and not unusual at all. Their escorts however have received some attention. The Bears were followed by two armed Su-35S/Flanker-M multirole fighters in the livery of the "Russkie Vitiazi" ("Russian Knights") display team.

A Russian Tu-95 Bear-H strategic cruise missile carrier photographed slightly from aft and below. A large aircraft with a relatively long and slender fuselage, high-set wings and four turboprop engines with contra-rotating propellers. The missile pylons under the wings appear empty.

1/6 On February 27 the Norwegian Air Force's QRA intercepted two Tu-95/Bear-H strategic cruise missile carriers in international airspace over the Barents Sea. Russian Bear and Blackjack cruise missile carriers have flown patrols into the Barents and Norwegian Seas every February since at least 2020

Great thread. The Swiss are figuring out what we did 80 years ago:
- Protection by geography can be made irrelevant by technological change
- It is too late to plan for assistance when you are under attack
(- Pretending to be non-aligned/neutral is probably the worst of all solutions)

Screenshot from vide published by the Black Sea Fleet. A Kilo-class submarine by a pier. On the pier is a heap of grey blocks and lumps similar to broken bits of concrete.

What is this? Sort of looks like debris from the explosion? if so it looks like it is gathered into a single heap.

Vil du forske på russisk krigføring i Ukraina? - arbeidsplassen.no Doktorgradsstipendiat - russisk krigføring i Ukraina, Luftkrigsskolen, Forsvarets høgskole, Trondheim. Søknadsfrist: Søk senest lørdag 10. januar.

Vi har en ledig PhD stipendiat-stilling ved Luftkrigsskolen - søknadsfrist 10. januar: arbeidsplassen.nav.no/stillinger/s...

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Good thread on Poseidon's lineage.

Gerasimov claims a successfull flight of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile after more than two months of tests.
www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/no-...

This is also a feature of SAAB/Gripen that has made it a good match for Ukraine: Swedish flexibility and ingenuity around financing models. And of course risk acceptance.

9/9 In conclusion, I believe this is good news even if operational capability is years away, and may well happen after the fighting has ended. In most realistic scenarios, Ukraine will require a strong air force to deter Russia for the foreseeable future.

F-16 with Ukrainian Air Force roundels, armed with Sidewinder missiles. Photo by Ukrainian Air Force on X

8/9 As these will be new builds, they will have an expected service life probably beyond the 2060s. Ukraine's legacy Soviet aircraft are more or less beyond any reasonable life expectation - especially during wartime. Donated F-16s and Mirages are not much better off.

A SAAB Gripen armed with MBDA Meteor Beyond visual range air to air missiles. The unclassified range of ~200kms is comparable to the Russian AA-13 Axehead

7/9 But the Gripen E is also an excellent combat aircraft, with modern sensors, electronic warfare capabilities and weapons that will make it a very dangerous opponent for the Flankers that will remain the backbone of the Russian Air Force for the next decades.

A Gripen being rearmed in the field on a dispersal airbase. Image from the front page of @justin-br0nk.bsky.social 's RUSI Whitehall report "Regenerating Warfighting Credibility for European NATO Air Forces".The report has an outline of the Swedish dispersal concept on p 11-12: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/whitehall-reports/regenerating-warfighting-credibility-european-nato-air-forces

6/9 It is developed from the bottom up for the concept of operations Sweden developed as a front line state during the Cold War. It is made for dispersed operations from austere airfields, for fast turnaround and servicing in the field by reservists.

5/9 The Gripen E is explicitly mentioned as an example of the desired type of combat aircraft, together with F-16 Block 70/72. The Gripen is a very good choice for Ukraine for several reasons.

Table from Air Force Vision 2035, illustrating a three-phase replacement of legacy Soviet aircraft. The main phase of rearming is supposed to happen in the 2025-2030 period.

4/9 In this document, the Ukrainian Air Force suggested replacing all legacy Soviet combat aircraft with a single western Gen4+ type by 2035, with an initial low-rate purchase for training, testing and development purposes finished by 2025.

Front page of the Ukrainian Air Force's 2020 road map. The text on top of the page says "Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The title "Air Force Vision 2035" is superimposed over a picture of four combat aircraft, from bottom to top: a Su-25 Frogfoot, a Su-27 Flanker, a MiG-29 Fulcrum and an F-16 Fighting Falcon. Under the aircraft are a SAM system and two air surveillance radars. In the background is an outline of Ukraine.

3/9 In that respect, it is a belated realization of the Ukrainian Air Force's road map from 2020, "Air Force Vision 2035".

2/9 This is a long-term project, not another stop-gap solution to get Ukraine combat aircraft ASAP. Prime Minister Kristersson was talking about a 10-15 year timeframe for completing deliveries and getting the Gripens operationally capable. So an end point around 2035-40

Screenshot from today's press meeting. President Zelensky and prime minister Kristersson stand next to each other in front of a Gripen aircraft and a Ukrainian and Swedish flag. Via TV4.se

1/9 A few comments on today's announcement of Ukraine's intent to buy 100-150 SAAB Gripen-E multi-role combat jets.

It reminds me of rubber tires on aircraft, painted airplane-shaped silhouettes on the ground, and Russian soldiers treating counter-IR cloaks as magical and ignoring every other principle of camouflage and concealment.

BTW, the camouflage netting in partial lush green contrast to the tan dirt and snugly fitted around a very airplane-shaped thingy in the open is amazing.

I guess this should be called a counter-counterdrone drone strike.

In the best Soviet tradition.

Two Sentinel 2 passes over Rogachevo Air Base in Novaya Zemlya today - one of which got a lucky break in the clouds.

The aircraft involved Burevestnik test monitoring still appear to be there, so combined with the ongoing NOTAMs & continued presence of vessels, I don't think they're finished yet.

Estonia ready to deal with Russia’s ‘little green men’ – Estonian Defence Forces

The Estonians formulated their doctrine on "little green men" more than 10 years ago: “you should shoot the first one to appear,” Gen Terras said. “If somebody without any military insignia commits terrorist attacks in your country you should shoot him … (..)”
mil.ee/en/news/esto...

This is an intelligent approach. Fear and confusion are way too often mentioned as the desired effects of "grey-zone" or "hybrid" actions. They can however only be means to reach desired outcomes, by distracting us from what is at stake or coercing us from taking action.

Important thread on the state of Russian civil aviation after sanctions and under heavy GPS (self-)jamming. TL/DR: It is extremely unsafe.