Riccardo Gasco

Alleata Usa ma contro l'attacco: la posizione della Turchia nella guerra in Iran Ankara vuole evitare l’escalation militare diretta ma è preoccupata per i curdi

📌 I spoke with Giovanna Loccatelli for La Stampa on how Turkey reacted and positioned itself following the outbreak of the Iran war. 🇹🇷

www.lastampa.it/esteri/2026/...

How is Turkey responding to the US-Israel-Iran war? | The National Unlike Gulf countries, Turkey has not been targeted in Iranian retaliation

📌 Quoted in The National on Turkey’s response to the US–Israel–Iran war. 🇹🇷

Ankara is pushing for de-escalation and diplomacy, while preparing for potential spillovers—from refugee flows to security risks linked to Kurdish militant groups.

www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...

Turkey’s Dilemma: Hawks Demand Action, Elites Choose Diplomacy Amid US-Israel Iran Strikes Public support for confronting Iran clashes with Ankara’s de-escalation push, as NATO surveillance and mediation offers test strategic balance

📌 Turkish decision-makers have long treated scenarios of rapid destabilization in Iran as inherently costly. 🇹🇷 🇮🇷

A few thoughts on the recent developments in the Middle East and #Ankara's role!

substack.com/home/post/p-...

Turkey’s Dilemma: Hawks Demand Action, Elites Choose Diplomacy Amid US-Israel Iran Strikes Public support for confronting Iran clashes with Ankara’s de-escalation push, as NATO surveillance and mediation offers test strategic balance

Turkey’s Iran paradox is stark: public hawkishness vs elite de-escalation. Ankara opposes strikes less out of sympathy for Tehran than spillover risk management (PKK security pressure, displacement, corridor disruption).

Riccardo Gasco on X: "📌 With the #US and #Israel launching airstrikes on #Iran today, the Middle East has entered a highly volatile new phase. One key question is how #Turkey positions itself amid this crisis, and what it could mean for #Ankara’s security, economy, and regional role. 🔺Let’s walk" / X 📌 With the #US and #Israel launching airstrikes on #Iran today, the Middle East has entered a highly volatile new phase. One key question is how #Turkey positions itself amid this crisis, and what it could mean for #Ankara’s security, economy, and regional role. 🔺Let’s walk

x.com/RiccardoGasc...

📌 Guest lecture at Trieste University on the geopolitics of rare earths — on Turkey’s role 🌍 and the implications for the EU.

Critical raw materials are central to geoeconomics, industrial policy, and foreign policy.

Thanks to @fededonelli.bsky.social and Federico Battera for the invitation.

From aid to F-16s: Turkey s hard-power turn in Somalia Turkey's deployment of F-16s to Somalia marks a deepening military footprint in the Horn of Africa at a time of escalating Red Sea rivalries

This looks less like a change of model and more like an escalation in the means Turkey is willing to use to defend what it has already built in Somalia,” said @riccardogasco.bsky.social

www-newarab-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.newa...

From aid to F-16s: Turkey’s hard-power turn in Somalia Turkey’s deployment of F-16s to Somalia marks a deepening military footprint in the Horn of Africa at a time of escalating Red Sea rivalries

📌 I was pleased to be quoted in @thenewarab.bsky.social by Jonathan Fenton-Harvey on Turkey’s F-16 deployment to Somalia. 🇹🇷 🇸🇴

🔺 Somalia is becoming a strategic maritime platform linking the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Full article: www.newarab.com/analysis/aid...

📌 It's always a pleasure to contribute to the top newsletter on Turkish affairs @turkeyrecap.bsky.social!

Thanks to @diegocupolo.bsky.social for including my two cents on the recent developments between #Türkiye and the #EU! 🇹🇷 🇪🇺

Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? | ISPI Leggi l'articolo Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? sul sito dell'ISPI.

📌 Check out our new ISPI commentary with Federico Donelli
on Türkiye's potential role for the #EU in securing critical raw materials. 🇹🇷🇪🇺

www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicaz...

EU trade acceleration with India and Mercosur: How it is reshaping Türkiye's competitive perimeter For Türkiye, the European Union’s (EU) accelerating trade diplomacy is no longer a distant story about Brussels’ external agenda. It is a direc

📌 #EU FTAs with #India + Mercosur redraw #Europe’s trade map. #Türkiye is inside the market, outside the rules—Customs Union exposure, no say. That asymmetry is now a strategic risk. 🇹🇷🇪🇺

✍️Check out my latest analysis for @istanpol.bsky.social!

istanpol.org/en/post-eu-t...

EU trade acceleration with India and Mercosur: How it is reshaping Türkiye's competitive perimeter For Türkiye, the European Union’s (EU) accelerating trade diplomacy is no longer a distant story about Brussels’ external agenda. It is a direc

📌 #EU FTAs with #India + Mercosur redraw #Europe’s trade map. #Türkiye is inside the market, outside the rules—Customs Union exposure, no say. That asymmetry is now a strategic risk. 🇹🇷🇪🇺

✍️Check out my latest analysis for @istanpol.bsky.social!

istanpol.org/en/post-eu-t...

Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? | ISPI Leggi l'articolo Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? sul sito dell'ISPI.

📌Rare earths are becoming a key #geopolitical asset.

With @riccardogasco.bsky.social, we analyze #Türkiye’s potential role for the #EU in securing #critical raw #materials.

#ISPI online 👇

www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicaz...

Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? | ISPI Leggi l'articolo Turchia e terre rare: un’opzione per l’UE? sul sito dell'ISPI.

📌 Check out our new ISPI commentary with Federico Donelli
on Türkiye's potential role for the #EU in securing critical raw materials. 🇹🇷🇪🇺

www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicaz...

Cosa è stato e cosa sarà in Turchia? - la prima puntata della seconda stagione! YouTube video by Cose Turche News

🎙️ Cose Turche News is back. New season, new format. 🇹🇷

New voices, longer episodes, and deeper dives into Turkey’s politics, society, and the wider region — every two weeks.

🎧 Episode 1 is out: a review of 2025 and early insights on what to expect in 2026.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRvP...

2026 Predictions aka "Turkey precap"

And in case you missed it, our 2026 Predictions issue. [5/5]

Turkish Foreign Policy in Focus: 2025 in Review and 2026 Outlook In 2025, Turkish foreign policy unfolded in a context marked by heightened strategic centrality and persistent political constraints. Rather than a year of radi

📌 The traditional Foreign Policy Review from the
@istanpol.bsky.social is out! 🇹🇷

✒️ Check out this year's expert comments and predictions for 2026 by Samuele Abrami, Soner Cagaptay, Dareen Khalifa, Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, Ebru Turhan, and Sıtkı Egeli.

istanpol.org/en/post-turk...

2026 Predictions aka "Turkey precap"

📌 Thanks to @turkeyrecap.bsky.social for including me in its traditional New Year predictions alongside a great group of experts!

I briefly reflected on what 2026 may bring for #Turkey – #EU defence relations. 🇹🇷🇪🇺

open.substack.com/pub/turkeyre...

2026 Predictions aka "Turkey precap"

@turkeyrecap.bsky.social continues its great tradition of collecting predictions from experts for the new year. I also contributed with thoughts on Syria. 👇

www.turkeyrecap.com/p/2026-predi...

Op-ed | Hedging defined Turkish foreign policy in 2025. Next year may require a new approach. When we look back at Turkish foreign policy in 2025, what stands out is not a major shift or a sudden change of direction.

"Hedging defined Turkish foreign policy in 2025. Next year may require a new approach." by @riccardogasco.bsky.social. [4/5]

Op-ed | Hedging defined Turkish foreign policy in 2025. Next year may require a new approach. When we look back at Turkish foreign policy in 2025, what stands out is not a major shift or a sudden change of direction.

In 2025, Turkish foreign policy was less about choosing sides and more about managing risk exposure, preserving flexibility and maintaining relevance across multiple theaters.

Looking ahead, however, the space for such hedging may narrow, argues @riccardogasco.bsky.social:

Op-ed | Hedging defined Turkish foreign policy in 2025. Next year may require a new approach. When we look back at Turkish foreign policy in 2025, what stands out is not a major shift or a sudden change of direction.

📌 Thrilled to see my Op-Ed on #Turkish foreign policy in 2025 out on @turkeyrecap.bsky.social 🇹🇷

🗞️ “Hedging defined Turkish foreign policy in 2025. Next year may require a new approach”

www.turkeyrecap.com/p/op-ed-hedg...

Managed Pragmatism: EU-Türkiye Relations Without a Shared Vision — Insights from Brussels EU–Türkiye relations are entering a new phase defined by constrained pragmatism rather than political ambition. Russia’s war in Ukraine, instab

"Managed Pragmatism: EU-Türkiye Relations Without a Shared Vision — Insights from Brussels" by @riccardogasco.bsky.social, @selvinkorkmaz.bsky.social and Edgar Şar. [2/5]

Managed Pragmatism: EU-Türkiye Relations Without a Shared Vision — Insights from Brussels EU–Türkiye relations are entering a new phase defined by constrained pragmatism rather than political ambition. Russia’s war in Ukraine, instab

📌 Pleased to share our new @istanpol.bsky.social report, co-authored with @selvinkorkmaz.bsky.social and Edgar Sar! 🇹🇷🇪🇺

“Managed Pragmatism: #EU–#Türkiye Relations Without a Shared Vision – Insights from #Brussels”

istanpol.org/en/post-mana...

📌 It was a great pleasure to speak yesterday at Bahçeşehir University about #Europe's emerging security architecture and the role of #Turkey and #Italy. 🇮🇹 🇪🇺 🇹🇷

Thanks to @seloner.bsky.social and Yüksel Alper Ecevit for their kind invitation!

Blueprints for Autonomy: Turkey and the Gulf Partnership on Defense Industrialization - AGSI As the Gulf states pursue defense localization and seek to reduce dependence on the United States and Europe, Ankara offers cost-effective technology and a model of how to build capacity.

Over the past five years, Turkey and its Gulf partners have transformed competition into cooperation. What began as a cautious political rapprochement has matured into defense-industrial diplomacy linking technology, trade, and security. @riccardogasco.bsky.social & Francesco Schiavi

Definitely, I am looking forward to reading yours!

Blueprints for Autonomy: Turkey and the Gulf Partnership on Defense Industrialization - AGSI As the Gulf states pursue defense localization and seek to reduce dependence on the United States and Europe, Ankara offers cost-effective technology and a model of how to build capacity.

Among Gulf states, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have taken the lead in shifting from procurement-heavy to production-oriented defense sectors. @riccardogasco.bsky.social & Francesco Salesio Schiavi

Blueprints for Autonomy: Turkey and the Gulf Partnership on Defense Industrialization - AGSI As the Gulf states pursue defense localization and seek to reduce dependence on the United States and Europe, Ankara offers cost-effective technology and a model of how to build capacity.

📌 New analysis out with Francesco Salesio Schiavi for the
@gulfstatesinst.bsky.social on #Turkey and the #Gulf partnership on defence industrialisation. 🇹🇷

Are Turkey and the Gulf moving from arms procurement to true co-production?

agsi.org/analysis/blu...

Blueprints for Autonomy: Turkey and the Gulf Partnership on Defense Industrialization - AGSI As the Gulf states pursue defense localization and seek to reduce dependence on the United States and Europe, Ankara offers cost-effective technology and a model of how to build capacity.

As the Gulf states pursue defense localization and seek to reduce dependence on the United States and Europe, Ankara offers cost-effective technology and a model of how to build capacity. – @riccardogasco.bsky.social & Francesco Salesio Schiavi