'It’s been a textbook precision air campaign. As long as the US and its allies keep the war short, keep it in the air and find some exit strategy that doesn’t prolong regional chaos or mire them in a ground campaign, they can justifiably declare a sort of victory,' writes @davidaxe.bsky.social.
'Fifty years after the Tange reforms created the modern Australian Defence Force, Australia faces a structural problem that few are willing to confront: steady erosion of the service chiefs’ authority,' writes Jennifer Parker.
'Near-term credibility must come from forward sustainment capacity, pre-positioned stocks, hardened northern infrastructure and expanded technical workforce pipelines,' writes John Coyne.
🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨
In 'Social insecurity' John Coyne and Justin Bassi find we have weakened resilience to different views along with normalisation of violence, both online and off, and need to rebuild a capacity to hold multiple, sometimes uncomfortable beliefs, simultaneously.
📚 Read the report:
'The choice isn’t between unity and freedom, or security and speech. The real choice is whether disagreement becomes a source of renewal or a slow-burning vulnerability,' write John Coyne and Justin Bassi.
'In confronting a challenge such as that posed by China, it is best for the Royal Australian Navy and the ADF more broadly to seek to project power forward from the sea-air gap in our northern approaches. Ideally, it would do this as part of a coalition,' writes Malcolm Davis.
'Japan’s restrictive arms transfer regulations and weak anti-espionage laws, both rooted in post-World War II pacifism, meant JAUKUS was not yet a realistic possibility, however appealing it might be strategically,' writes Ryosuke Hanada.
'While Australia cannot determine the outcome of a Taiwan Strait crisis on its own, it has a direct stake in how it unfolds and the ability to complicate Beijing’s actions through diplomatic, economic and military responses,' writes Nathan Attrill.
'BRICS represents institutional entrepreneurship, not ideological unity. Members seek insulation from coercion and greater control over finance, trade and technology. This resonates well beyond the Global South,' writes Andrew Henderson.
'The concerns about autonomous lethal weapons alone are enough to show this is not just any commercial tool. It is already capable of deciding to target and kill a human being. That’s not a tool; it’s an agent and its capacity for power over our lives will only grow,' writes David Wroe.
'In northern Australia, defence resilience, national security and economic security are not competing agendas. Properly integrated, they reinforce one another,' writes John Coyne.
'Decisions taken now—about technology platforms, data architectures, vendor relationships and intergovernmental coordination—will determine Australia’s exposure well beyond 2032,' writes Chris Taylor.
Without steady, coordinated finance that links miners to the manufacturers that depend on their materials, good intentions won’t translate into real capacity or secure supply,' writes John Coyne.
'No publicly known exercise or basing initiative is explicitly framed as a Taiwan war rehearsal. Nevertheless, taken together, they reveal an emerging operational model that aligns closely with the requirements of a Taiwan contingency,' writes Rowan Allport.
'Darwin sits closer to Jakarta than to Canberra. It’s proximate to Southeast Asia’s maritime chokepoints and to the Indo-Pacific’s most dynamic economic and security corridors. For Territorians, distance isn’t measured in political narratives but in nautical miles,' writes John Coyne.
'The president’s first term combined tariff activism and burden-sharing rhetoric with institutional continuity in Indo-Pacific defence settings. Tariffs functioned largely as bargaining leverage,' write John Coyne and Justin Bassi.
NEW PODCAST 🎤
In a special double episode of Stop the World, Dr Andrew Charlton joins David Wroe to discuss AI and the future of the Australian economy, while Maxwell Scott explains how AI could complement, enhance or replace certain human tasks.
🎧 Listen: bit.ly/4azaxNf
'It seems a dim prospect now, but we must trust that the day will come when Russians can hold an honestly elected government to account and exercise genuine choice about their future,' writes Peter Tesch.
'Australian companies aren’t just domestic producers; they’re global investors, operators and technology leaders. Demand for their products is only rising as the energy transition, digitisation, automation and defence modernisation accelerate,' writes Ian Satchwell.
🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨
In ‘Disruption and opportunity: 🇦🇺 and critical minerals in a changing global order’, ASPI Senior Fellow Ian Satchwell argues 🇦🇺 must diversify its critical-minerals markets and activate dormant partnerships to secure a central role in global supply chains.
🔖: bit.ly/46i5PRy
'China’s nuclear expansion and modernisation could lead to an accelerated and unbridled nuclear arms race, particularly since Chinese President Xi Jinping refuses to participate in meaningful dialogue and abide by agreements on such issues,' writes Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan.
'Step by step, China is creating a Southeast Asian maritime order under its leadership. It has become a key investor in the region’s blue economy and is strengthening security ties with countries that are concerned about the unreliability of the United States,' writes Aristyo Darmawan.
'Taipei’s exact munitions stocks are a closely guarded secret, but there’s evidence that too few rounds are held for certain key weapon systems, which would quickly fall silent as Chinese troops stormed ashore and Chinese ships blockaded Taiwan’s ports,' writes @davidaxe.bsky.social.
🚨 SAVE THE DATE 🚨
The ASPI Defence Conference returns in 2026.
This year's theme focuses on securing the region for an uncertain future.
📅 Thursday 25 June 2026
📍 Canberra, Australia
👀 More details coming soon.
'Monitoring and analysis should track not only adversarial narratives but also distortion emerging from friendly political ecosystems. This is analytically uncomfortable but strategically necessary, as hybrid threats can also use proxy ecosystems,' write Eric Frecon and Fitriani.
'The government should shape markets, not attempt to micromanage them. But shaping markets requires more than writing a cheque,' writes Jason Van der Schyff.
'If northern Australia is the centre of gravity, it must be capable of generating and sustaining high-intensity operations from the outset,' writes John Coyne.
'It was Colby’s interventions—both in Munich and days earlier at the NATO defence ministerial—that offered European allies the clearest roadmap. The US demands that Europe assume primary, not merely greater, responsibility for its own conventional defence,' writes Bart Hogeveen.
🚨 EVENT REMINDER 🚨
Don't miss ASPI Resident Senior Fellow David Wroe in conversation with Altana CEO Evan Smith in Canberra next week.
They’ll discuss how trust can become a strategic asset across global trade, defence supply chains and critical tech.
✍️ Register now: bit.ly/49Qngt6
