Sovereignty for sale
Tech monopolies and the future of the nation state
New post just out:
"Sovereignty for sale"
The UK is uniquely exposed to the power of US tech monopolies - from Palantir to AI and cloud services.
Why is it so dangerous? What are other countries doing? And what should we do?
(Β£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...
05.03.2026 09:03
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Iranian anti-access and area denial strategy in the Strait of Hormuz - Wikipedia
Trump is an ignorant dumbfuck who is putting our naval vessels and the personnel on them in direct and serious danger.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian...
03.03.2026 20:39
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Is "deliverism" dead?
Lawrence gave his first take on Iran at the weekend and will return to it later this week.
New post just out
"Is 'deliverism' dead?"
A guest post from the brilliant @dmk1793.bsky.social on one of the main points of strategic confusion within the Labour party.
Is winning just about delivery or more about narrative?
(Β£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...
03.03.2026 08:30
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I always benefit from reading @ldfreedman.bsky.social
01.03.2026 13:46
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The US and Israel attack Iran: Round 2
Could it set off a wider regional war?
Post from yesterday. Conclusion still stands. Israel/US want regime change but depend on Iranian people to finish the job. Regime, partially decapitated, fighting for its survival. As it lashes out regionally can it stay in control at home? (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...
01.03.2026 10:15
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The US and Israel attack Iran: Round 2
Could it set off a wider regional war?
First assessment of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. They want regime change but leaving it to the Iranian people to change the regime. Regime fighting back by causing disruption in region, which may backfire. (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...
28.02.2026 17:21
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Some news on my next book....
www.thebookseller.com/rights/sam-f...
27.02.2026 15:10
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Indeed.
24.02.2026 15:38
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A Reckless Gamble
Wars rarely go to plan, especially if you believe your own rhetoric
This is the piece I published on substack on 25 February 2022. Not everyone thought it would be over in a matter of days. samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless...
24.02.2026 14:09
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Thats a challenge! Let me think what might work.
24.02.2026 13:01
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SEND help
Everything you need to know about the government's special educational needs plans
Latest from @samfr.bsky.social explains what the government is trying to do with its SEND White Paper and the pitfalls ahead. It provides a case study into how difficult it is to change any area of policy that affects many lives. (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/send-help
24.02.2026 10:02
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The RussiaβUkraine conflict: 1461 days of war
It is the human spirit, not hi-tech warfare, that has produced the most valuable lesson from four years on the battle front.
"We must look past the drones, algorithms and other technological artefacts for the essential lesson from this war...Ukraine has shown us what humans, as flawed as we are, can achieve in their finest hour. This is the essential lesson from 1461 days of war." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
23.02.2026 22:06
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BBC Radio 4 - Start the Week, Thinking about war
Sir Lawrence Freedman on strategy, art curator Rebecca Newell and historian Jane Rogoyska.
You can catch @britishacademy.bsky.social Fellow @ldfreedman.bsky.social on Start the Week (catch up link below) in conversation with @adamrutherford.bsky.social previewing his upcoming book on strategy which is out on 2nd March
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
23.02.2026 15:36
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The signal and the noise
How media fragmentation is changing politics and what governments need to do to adapt
Two issues linked by @samfr.bsky.social in his latest post - the tendency of politicians to assume that the problem is βcommsβ rather than content, and the general challenge of getting βcommsβ right when the media environment has become so fragmented. (Β£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-signal...
21.02.2026 10:25
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Left in the dark
The impact on the Russian army of losing access to Starlink and Telegram
The usual very clear exposition from @ldfreedman.bsky.social Good news for Ukraine, but food for thought for any armed forces depending on a single commercial supplier for a critical capability, if that supplier is itself subject to the whim of one man.
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...
19.02.2026 09:02
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Left in the dark
The impact on the Russian army of losing access to Starlink and Telegram
My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?
18.02.2026 09:49
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Fascinated by this. Follows the excellent article in the @samfr.bsky.social / @ldfreedman.bsky.social substack. Have thoughtful abundance-minded folk like @jamesomalley.co.uk written/said anything on this yet? Feels right up their street.
18.02.2026 10:52
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Left in the dark
The impact on the Russian army of losing access to Starlink and Telegram
My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?
18.02.2026 09:49
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A cut above everything else you read on planning.
16.02.2026 11:37
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Apparently I need to keep my thoughts to myself β¦
16.02.2026 11:35
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Build the Rail! Save the Snails!
How to speed up the planning system without trashing the environment
Guest post today from @dsquareddigest.bsky.social on how to reframe the debate on planning , arguing for sorting out the contentious issues early on in the process to avoid lengthy and costly delays. This one is free. samf.substack.com/p/build-the-...
16.02.2026 09:32
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Answers from @ldfreedman.bsky.social from earlier in the week.
bsky.app/profile/samf...
14.02.2026 09:45
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New post out:
Why are Reform's poll ratings falling?
How worried should be about Palantir?
How long does Starmer have left?
And lots more of your questions...
Topics covered listed below.
(Β£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/why-have-r...
14.02.2026 09:15
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Is Ukraine's position improving? What's Russia's breaking point? Is House of Dynamite accurate?
Answering your questions (part one)
Thanks to readers for so many questions - more than can be answered in one post. Topics covered include implications of Ukraine being able to counterattack now, why Putin keeps on going, threats to UK, China, arms control, and House of Dynamite (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...
11.02.2026 09:25
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No, I still canβt get this out of my head, and I keep trying to grasp the full abyss of this idiocy, unsuccessfully.
Russia spent years, decades "fighting all of NATO," turning America into "radioactive ash" every night on state TV.
09.02.2026 21:54
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I doubt any troops cheered Custer.
09.02.2026 19:13
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After Starmer
What would Labour do differently under a new leader?
Assuming Starmer days as PM are numbered, Sam considers how he might be replaced and by whom, and what if any difference this will make to the way we are governed. (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/after-star...
08.02.2026 09:32
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