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Lawrence Freedman

@ldfreedman

Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine. Substack Comment is Freed https://samf.substack.com/

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05.07.2023
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Latest posts by Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman

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Sovereignty for sale Tech monopolies and the future of the nation state

New post just out:

"Sovereignty for sale"

The UK is uniquely exposed to the power of US tech monopolies - from Palantir to AI and cloud services.

Why is it so dangerous? What are other countries doing? And what should we do?

(Β£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

05.03.2026 09:03 πŸ‘ 198 πŸ” 101 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 13
Iranian anti-access and area denial strategy in the Strait of Hormuz - Wikipedia

Trump is an ignorant dumbfuck who is putting our naval vessels and the personnel on them in direct and serious danger.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian...

03.03.2026 20:39 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Is "deliverism" dead? Lawrence gave his first take on Iran at the weekend and will return to it later this week.

New post just out

"Is 'deliverism' dead?"

A guest post from the brilliant @dmk1793.bsky.social on one of the main points of strategic confusion within the Labour party.

Is winning just about delivery or more about narrative?

(Β£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

03.03.2026 08:30 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 7

I always benefit from reading @ldfreedman.bsky.social

01.03.2026 13:46 πŸ‘ 65 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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The US and Israel attack Iran: Round 2 Could it set off a wider regional war?

Post from yesterday. Conclusion still stands. Israel/US want regime change but depend on Iranian people to finish the job. Regime, partially decapitated, fighting for its survival. As it lashes out regionally can it stay in control at home? (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

01.03.2026 10:15 πŸ‘ 70 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
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The US and Israel attack Iran: Round 2 Could it set off a wider regional war?

First assessment of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. They want regime change but leaving it to the Iranian people to change the regime. Regime fighting back by causing disruption in region, which may backfire. (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

28.02.2026 17:21 πŸ‘ 77 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 1
Post image

Some news on my next book....

www.thebookseller.com/rights/sam-f...

27.02.2026 15:10 πŸ‘ 180 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 1

Indeed.

24.02.2026 15:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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A Reckless Gamble Wars rarely go to plan, especially if you believe your own rhetoric

This is the piece I published on substack on 25 February 2022. Not everyone thought it would be over in a matter of days. samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless...

24.02.2026 14:09 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Thats a challenge! Let me think what might work.

24.02.2026 13:01 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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SEND help Everything you need to know about the government's special educational needs plans

Latest from @samfr.bsky.social explains what the government is trying to do with its SEND White Paper and the pitfalls ahead. It provides a case study into how difficult it is to change any area of policy that affects many lives. (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/send-help

24.02.2026 10:02 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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On Strategists and Strategies My latest book will be published on 2 March by Oxford University Press in the UK under the title On Strategists and Strategies: Collected Essays 2014-2024. It is already published in the US. The book contains some autobiographical pieces, consideration of key strategic concepts, and assessments of some key figures in the field. Although I have not included my commentaries on ongoing events, there are pieces on the Iraq and the Russo-Ukraine Wars. Around half the pieces first appeared on this substack.

My new book - a collection of essays on strategists and strategy - is being published by OUP next week. Here is the intro to whet your appetite with a link at the end for subscribers to get a signed copy. (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...?

23.02.2026 13:34 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Russia–Ukraine conflict: 1461 days of war It is the human spirit, not hi-tech warfare, that has produced the most valuable lesson from four years on the battle front.

"We must look past the drones, algorithms and other technological artefacts for the essential lesson from this war...Ukraine has shown us what humans, as flawed as we are, can achieve in their finest hour. This is the essential lesson from 1461 days of war." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

23.02.2026 22:06 πŸ‘ 486 πŸ” 133 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 8
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BBC Radio 4 - Start the Week, Thinking about war Sir Lawrence Freedman on strategy, art curator Rebecca Newell and historian Jane Rogoyska.

You can catch @britishacademy.bsky.social Fellow @ldfreedman.bsky.social on Start the Week (catch up link below) in conversation with @adamrutherford.bsky.social previewing his upcoming book on strategy which is out on 2nd March
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

23.02.2026 15:36 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
On Strategists and Strategies My latest book will be published on 2 March by Oxford University Press in the UK under the title On Strategists and Strategies: Collected Essays 2014-2024. It is already published in the US. The book contains some autobiographical pieces, consideration of key strategic concepts, and assessments of some key figures in the field. Although I have not included my commentaries on ongoing events, there are pieces on the Iraq and the Russo-Ukraine Wars. Around half the pieces first appeared on this substack.

My new book - a collection of essays on strategists and strategy - is being published by OUP next week. Here is the intro to whet your appetite with a link at the end for subscribers to get a signed copy. (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...?

23.02.2026 13:34 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The signal and the noise How media fragmentation is changing politics and what governments need to do to adapt

Two issues linked by @samfr.bsky.social in his latest post - the tendency of politicians to assume that the problem is β€˜comms’ rather than content, and the general challenge of getting β€˜comms’ right when the media environment has become so fragmented. (Β£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-signal...

21.02.2026 10:25 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Left in the dark The impact on the Russian army of losing access to Starlink and Telegram

The usual very clear exposition from @ldfreedman.bsky.social Good news for Ukraine, but food for thought for any armed forces depending on a single commercial supplier for a critical capability, if that supplier is itself subject to the whim of one man.
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...

19.02.2026 09:02 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Left in the dark The impact on the Russian army of losing access to Starlink and Telegram

My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?

18.02.2026 09:49 πŸ‘ 73 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Fascinated by this. Follows the excellent article in the @samfr.bsky.social / @ldfreedman.bsky.social substack. Have thoughtful abundance-minded folk like @jamesomalley.co.uk written/said anything on this yet? Feels right up their street.

18.02.2026 10:52 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Left in the dark The impact on the Russian army of losing access to Starlink and Telegram

My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?

18.02.2026 09:49 πŸ‘ 73 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Four Years Later: Russia’s War in Ukraine | CSIS As Ukraine marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, CSIS experts look to the war’s past and future, examining its impacts on Ukraine, Russia, and the world at large as the conflic...

As Ukraine marks the 4th anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, CSIS experts look to the war’s past and future, examining its impacts on Ukraine, Russia, & the world as the conflict continues into a 5th year.

See our analysis: https://www.csis.org/programs/four-years-later-russias-war-ukraine

17.02.2026 17:26 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

A cut above everything else you read on planning.

16.02.2026 11:37 πŸ‘ 45 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Apparently I need to keep my thoughts to myself …

16.02.2026 11:35 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Build the Rail! Save the Snails! How to speed up the planning system without trashing the environment

Guest post today from @dsquareddigest.bsky.social on how to reframe the debate on planning , arguing for sorting out the contentious issues early on in the process to avoid lengthy and costly delays. This one is free. samf.substack.com/p/build-the-...

16.02.2026 09:32 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Answers from @ldfreedman.bsky.social from earlier in the week.

bsky.app/profile/samf...

14.02.2026 09:45 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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New post out:

Why are Reform's poll ratings falling?
How worried should be about Palantir?
How long does Starmer have left?

And lots more of your questions...

Topics covered listed below.

(Β£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/why-have-r...

14.02.2026 09:15 πŸ‘ 111 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 11 πŸ“Œ 2
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Is Ukraine's position improving? What's Russia's breaking point? Is House of Dynamite accurate? Answering your questions (part one)

Thanks to readers for so many questions - more than can be answered in one post. Topics covered include implications of Ukraine being able to counterattack now, why Putin keeps on going, threats to UK, China, arms control, and House of Dynamite (Β£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

11.02.2026 09:25 πŸ‘ 61 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2

No, I still can’t get this out of my head, and I keep trying to grasp the full abyss of this idiocy, unsuccessfully.

Russia spent years, decades "fighting all of NATO," turning America into "radioactive ash" every night on state TV.

09.02.2026 21:54 πŸ‘ 645 πŸ” 115 πŸ’¬ 18 πŸ“Œ 12

I doubt any troops cheered Custer.

09.02.2026 19:13 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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After Starmer What would Labour do differently under a new leader?

Assuming Starmer days as PM are numbered, Sam considers how he might be replaced and by whom, and what if any difference this will make to the way we are governed. (Β£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/after-star...

08.02.2026 09:32 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0