Ankit Panda

By @cherylrofer.bsky.social.

Woops should have tagged you!

Good post on the practical SOF challenges of securing Iran's HEU stocks. Doesn't mean Israel and the US won't try it.

Again, only one Arrow-3 launch over the night of March 5, this time from Tel Aviv.

Brings the total Arrow-3s recorded since the war started to 16. That is still below the number used during the first night of the 12-Day War alone

“We are trapped between the regime that is killing us with machine guns, and a foreign power has likely decided that we are collateral damage.”

"Saad al-Kaabi told the FT that even if the war ended immediately it would take Qatar “weeks to months” to return to a normal cycle of deliveries following an Iranian drone strike at its largest liquefied natural gas plant."

Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports ‘within days’ Gas producer says it will take ‘weeks to months’ to restore deliveries after Iranian drone strike

'Qatar’s energy minister has warned that war in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world”, predicting that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within days and drive oil to $150 a barrel.' www.ft.com/content/be12...

Probably first major US loss of the conflict when it comes to ballistic missile defense. One of TPY-2 radars belonging to the THAAD battery deployed to Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan seems to have been struck. The full radar set goes over $200M.

no no no no no

"Double tap" is a very specific thing that basically only the Israelis and Russians do that this website has since decided should refer to any strike where you hit a target more than once, for any reason

Iran’s Underground ‘Missile Cities’ Have Become One of Its Biggest Vulnerabilities The bunkers, built to shield Iran’s vast missile arsenal from destruction, have become prime targets in the war.

Most of the planning for this campaign is being done by Millennials- veterans of Goldeneye 64, Halo, and Splatoon- so they're spawn camping Iranian missile launchers.

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Iran’s Underground ‘Missile Cities’ Have Become One of Its Biggest Vulnerabilities The bunkers, built to shield Iran’s vast missile arsenal from destruction, have become prime targets in the war.

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Iran’s Underground ‘Missile Cities’ Have Become One of Its Biggest Vulnerabilities The bunkers, built to shield Iran’s vast missile arsenal from destruction, have become prime targets in the war.

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

OK, as the actual journalist who has been unwittingly caught up in the Claude rumor this morning (who also covers AI disinformation) let me clear this one up for the record.

To recap: Claude kind of implicated itself in the Iran school bombing citing (in part) my reporting...

* insert year-of-the-Linux-desktop joke *

Terminal Kaplan brain.

My "the United States possesses huge amounts of ammunition" shirt is raising lots of questions already answered by my shirt.

The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions Replenishing stockpiles depends on vulnerable critical mineral chains.

"This is a polite way of saying the American military should be hoping the next salvo with Iran is smaller—and that China won’t do the math to figure out what is left of American precision-guided munitions to defend Taiwan." foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/i...

(Bill Cunningham's doing!)

My first-ever NYT appearance was in the style section.

You know, I do think there should be more public dialogue about nuclear weapons in a world where stockpiles are expanding and arms control is all but gone. But not like this, man come on
#Nukesky

I contain multitudes, Matt!

(Genuinely surprised this is getting any engagement.)

Imminentize the eschaton.

Good plan, there’s no way that the US would ever betray Kurds who fought on their behalf, or that Turkey would be upset by and seek to frustrate any US-backed Kurdish forces, or that an invasion from Iraq would trigger Iranian nationalist opposition. None of those things have ever happened.

Where Did Iran's Deterrence Go Wrong? YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

Iran made several missteps in its deterrence strategy in the leadup to war. @nktpnd.bsky.social broke them down: youtube.com/shorts/KX1Vh...

After Hegseth Cut Ties, Harvard Offers Workarounds for Troops

Jeremy Weinstein, dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, gives admitted members of the miltary the option to defer for several years, but also arranges expedited review of their application at other schools if they don't want to postpone, in response to Hegseth's foolish Harvard cutoff.

South Korea's Cheongung-II Intercepts Iranian Missiles in UAE Combat Debut South Koreas Cheongung-II Intercepts Iranian Missiles in UAE Combat Debut Domestically developed M-SAM system achieved over 90% interception rate in first combat use, part of $3.5 billion UAE contract

"Cheongung-II (M-SAM) was deployed in combat in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and intercepted multiple Iranian missiles, it was revealed on the 3rd. This marks the first instance where South Korea’s exported weapon system has been deployed in combat" www.chosun.com/english/nati...

I have a pit in my stomach thinking through the many ways in which this goes very, very wrong.

These quotes are actually very revealing about modern American civil-military relations

A bar chart showing results to the following survey question: Based on what you know, how likely is it that US military action against Iran will spark a broader regional war? Likely: 71% overall, 65% Republicans, 84% Democrats, 68% Independents Unlikely: 25% overall, 33% Republicans, 16% Democrats, 26% Independents From a Chicago Council on Global Affairs/Ipsos poll fielded February 27-March 1, 2026, among a random national sample of 1,018 adults.

New @global-affairs.bsky.social /@ipsosus.bsky.social poll finds that most Americans—including majorities across party lines—see US strikes on Iran as likely leading to a wider regional war.

Full analysis with my colleagues @roguepollster.bsky.social and Lama El Baz: bit.ly/4b1tg2N