Peter Frankopan

China’s Sudden Silence Over Taiwan: Some suggestions Over the past two years, the skies around Taiwan have become one of the most closely watched arenas in global geopolitics.

For more (and free to read) on #GlobalThreads open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

Perhaps It’s because of military purges; or maybe diplomatic optics before the much awaited Xi–Trump meeting. Or perhaps there is a bigger geopolitical calculation here 4/5

These have now vanished (though PLA Navy and other vessels remain nearby). So why the sudden quiet ? 3/5

During exercises like Joint Sword (drills that look like rehearsals for blockade or worse). Taiwan detected 100+ PLA aircraft in a single day. 2/5

For the last couple of years, Chinese military aircraft have entered Taiwan’s air defence zone almost daily.
Last week, flights stopped. Why? 1/5

Iran | Feat. Ali Ansari | Seen From The Inside And Out | 1 Podcast Episode · Legacy · 3 March · 44m

For those who want to understand Iran, here's a gem of a new episode of Legacy, where Professor Ali Ansari explains to me and @afuahirsch.bsky.social how leaders in Iran see the outside world - and how power structures actually work/worked

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/l...

10p for each 500m years #Bargain

The Earth Transformed: An Untold History The Earth Transformed: An Untold History eBook : Frankopan, Professor Peter: Amazon.co.uk: Books

The Earth Transformed: An Untold History by @peterfrankopan.bsky.social is a bargain £1.79 on Kindle today #affiliatelink
amzlink.to/az00Zcwqdn8zJ

Thank you 🙏

I'm not religious nor a booster of Asian culture per se (although I love Japanese attitudes towards public garbage) but this made me stop and think today. We could use a bit more of this in the world. In a brilliant book by @peterfrankopan.bsky.social

Thank you Rebecca 🙏

For some considered thoughts from someone who knows what he’s talking about, read this.

8 quick thoughts on Iran I thought I should circulate a short post on today’s extraordinary events in Iran and the surrounding region.

Some quick thoughts on Iran - from who is left standing, to Hormuz and oil prices, to the effect on Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

Ali Reza Tangsiri, head of IRGC Navy
Saleh Asadi, head of the Intelligence Directorate of the “Khatam al-Anbiya” command
Mohammad Shirazi, head of the Military Bureau of the Supreme Leader
Hossein Jabal Amelian, Chairman of SPND - سازمان پژوهش‌های نوین دفاعی (Organisation of Innovation and Research)

Mohammad Shahadi, Head of the Military Staff of the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Ali Shamkhani Head of ecurity and Intelligence to the Leadership Council.
Mohammad Pakpour, Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,

Working list of senior figures reportedly killed in Iran today (all tbc, and several not verified as yet); hearing plenty of other names too - but attributions more vague/less reliable as yet:

Ali Khamenei, Supreme leader
Mojtaba Khamenei, son and heir apparent
Aziz Nasirzadeh, Minister of Defence

This Is Samurai | The Rise Of Medieval Warlords | 1 Podcast Episode · Legacy · EP119 · 38m

To coincide with #Samurai, the @britishmuseum's fabulous new exhibition, here's the first of two eps on Japan's warrior class with @afuahirsch.bsky.social
on #Legacy podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

The water wars are coming

The exceeding of #PlanetaryBoundaries is also a crisis of geopolitics, as @peterfrankopan.bsky.social sets out

unherd.com/2026/02/the-...

Desert One Again: the shadows of history and Iran’s Talks in Oman And so finally - after the uncertainties, the threats to cancel and the change of location - talks are underway in Oman to plot a set of potential futures for Iran.

I've written about this on #GlobalThreads. Free to read here: open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

History provides an important backdrop here: Tehran is testing assumptions about US weakness and resolve 4/5

The reference is to Operation Eagle Claw (1980). And the message? Pressure fails; patience wins; and salvation comes from divine protection 3/5

Iran’s FM routed his flight to Muscat via “Desert One” - an obscure airstrip in the Tabas Desert. Random? Not if you know your history. 2/5

Talks on Iran are finally underway in Oman. One detail says a lot about how Tehran is framing this moment 1/5

Quote from The Earth Transformed by @peterfrankopan.bsky.social

The message that must be the clarion call to mitigate climate change Earth will survive us and other species will flourish as a result just as we did To suggest otherwise is simply hubris The sooner we realise that the greater the chances we don’t disappear as a species @peterfrankopan.bsky.social 🎯

Playing with Fire in the Gulf: Why the Margin for Error Is Shrinking Fast The chances for things to go wrong with Iran have increased sharply in the last 24 hours.

I've written about this in #GlobalThreads. Link here open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

This is how tinder gets set for crises to spiral: fewer channels, more suspicion, hotter tempers, poorer choices. The danger isn’t intent alone; it’s miscalculation. 4/5

And now Tehran is shifting the shape of talks with Washington - changing venue, tyring to narrow who’s in the room, limiting talking points. The creates assymmetry that might seem comforting, but is not helpful 3/5

Hostile manoeuvres in Hormuz; a drone flying too close to a US carrier. These aren’t 'messages' so much as tests of luck. And in a crowded theatre, luck runs out fast 2/5

The last 24 hours around Iran have been a textbook lesson in how crises escalate: jittery moves, mixed signals and shrinking room for errors. When nerves fray, even small moves have consequences 1/5

These are the key points; much more detail on my S*bstack though.