I agree about the extra £2.5bn of business taxes
0.7% rise from 0.5% above £3m threshold is not due to 29/30
Only In-Parliament change is reducing threshold for NLPs to £2m then £1m to raise £625m. A lot of political pain for little gain
Pay on all measures at 4.5-5.0%, falling slowly and CPI at 3.6% higher than expected
Likely base rate cut to 4.0% in Aug but uncertain for Nov
Large job losses in sectors offering first jobs to young people
But more 18s applying for FT HE and 16-17s likely in FT FE: Good news to keep NEET down
feweek.co.uk/compulsory-t...
There are more 16-17s in:
jobs with no training
jobs with employer training
jobs with part time education
than NEET
Many will not have achieved G4 in GCSE M&E
16-19 Student Premium does not help this group of young people because they are not in education
Give struggling 16-year-olds state-paid jobs, says key adviser
www.thetimes.com/article/e0b0...
Important to read and crucial to critique
Give struggling 16-year-olds state-paid jobs, says key adviser
www.thetimes.com/article/e0b0...
Important to read and crucial to critique
We now know that 43,000 16-24s will lose PIP (more than in the Royal Navy)
12K are employed but some are students
31K are not employed but some are students or NEET
Clearly, not all 16-24s losing PIP are NEET
Dropping out of education or employment could lead NEET to rise not fall
Welfare reforms for young people is not just a loss of LCWRA (18-21) but also a PIP issue (16-24s especially if DLAc extended to 18th birthday)
Welfare reforms for young people is not just a loss of LCWRA (18-21) but also a PIP issue (16-24s especially if DLAc extended to 18th birthday)
43,000 young people aged 16-24 in England and Wales would lose the DLE of PIP by not achieving 4 points in any activity
About 30% are employed but some could be full time students
The remaining 70% are full time students or NEET
DWP/DfE don’t know
Maybe now there will be more focus on 16-24s
A key question is how many of 430,000 will be 16-24 year olds?
The stock figure is that 43,000 16-24s would have lost PIP (DLE)
Only a minority are employed.
Some are
- employed in FT FE/HE
- full time FE/HE students not working
- already NEET
And another thing... just because a young person is in employment doesn't mean they aren't in education at the same time - they could be working some shifts around FE or HE courses. Losing the PIP funding could make this less workable, so maybe at risk of stopping one or both, and becoming NEET.
The Government claims that one of the 'stark' reasons for cutting the disability benefit PIP is because: "Almost 1 million young people – 1 in 8 - are not in education, employment or training" www.gov.uk/government/n.... We wanted to test whether the plans related to this statement. #UKFE
Govt data confirms 43,000 16-24 year-olds could lose the PIP daily living element. Will this increase the number of young people who are NEET?
The link between PIP reform and NEET should be urgently assessed say @paulbivand.bsky.social and @markcorney.bsky.social
Read here: bit.ly/YoungPeoplea...
And not necessarily the main question for 16-24s losing PIP.
Main question is will loss of PIP cause more 16-24s in full time FE/HE and unemployed and inactive studying part time FE/HE to drop out or applying in the future?
And for the 16-24 year old group will the cut to the daily living element of PIP due to the 4 point threshold cause not just a fall in employment but a fall in Full Time Further and Higher Education?
Let’s see if the Education Select Committee makes the same proposal
Noting LFS caveats
A staggering 16.7% of 16-24s (UK) are not in Employment or FT Education (1.238m)
A year ago it was 15.8% (1.152m)
But at least the rise in 16-24s Not in Employment or FT Education is lower than the rise in 16-24 cohort
So some YP are getting jobs or staying on
Noting LFS caveats
A staggering 16.7% of 16-24s (UK) are not in Employment or FT Education (1.238m)
A year ago it was 15.8% (1.152m)
But at least the rise in 16-24s Not in Employment or FT Education is lower than the rise in 16-24 cohort
So some YP are getting jobs or staying on
Interesting that DfE Mains 2025/26 estimate says more core schools funding above £63.7bn to come in FY2025/26 (Page 27)
So 25/26 baseline could be higher than ‘protected schools’ of £n (core + other)?
But the strategy cannot just be employers and jobs
We need bumper recruitment this September in full time FE in our schools and colleges by 16-17 year olds and full time HE in our universities and colleges by 18 and 19 year olds
And even the LLE will create a single tuition fee loan at L4/6 there will still a further 5 operating at L3-8 in post-16 education and skills
And even the LLE will create a single tuition fee loan at L4/6 there will still a further 5 operating at L3-8 in post-16 education and skills
@jonathanwoodhead.bsky.social and @markcorney.bsky.social explain how 60% of all funding in post-16 by DFE takes the form of loans. This understanding is critical to the forthcoming white paper on post-16 education and skills.
Read their piece: bit.ly/Post16LoansA...
Two key points from today:
- still need to know the share of L7 apprentices under 22?
- will the Growth & Skills Levy be more directive than apprenticeship levy to ensure levy payers and non levy payers recruit under 22 or under 24 apprentices and how?
Historic falls in employer spending on training has coincided with falls in business investment & R&D
Key question is how much of the c£46bn spent by employers on training in England is on skills training which boosts firm based productivity (outside apprenticeships and Skills Bootcamps)
UK Apprenticeship Levy
Raised £474m in April 2025
Highest ever for April and £61m more than April 2024
14.7% rise reflects higher pay bills due wage settlements and NMW increases
In FY2024/25 levy raised exactly £4,100m
OBR forecast £4,200m in 25/26
So £61m of extra £100m already in
Will plans to remove standard and enhanced living element of PIP increase 16-24 NEET?
Will plans to remove standard and enhanced living element of PIP increase 16-24 NEET?
Arguably, HE is at the start of the journey FE has been on for well over a decade. This has resulted in suppressed pay for hard-working staff in the sector, teenagers who study the fewest hours in the OECD and a decimated approach to adult education.
Just expand L4-6 provision in FE colleges
