Kevin Rinz

A Shock by Any Other Name? Reconsidering the Impacts of Local Demand Shocks Over the last decade, research on labor market adjustment following local demand shocks has expanded to explore a wide variety of measured shocks. However, the worker adjustments observed in response ...

There's a lot more in the paper - check it out and let us know what you think!

doi.org/10.26509/frb...

Finally (for now), we only see a migration response where we see an employment response (i.e. to Bartik shocks). Increased labor demand, as measured by Bartik shocks, reduces outflows and increases inflows, while there's little change in either in response to trade shocks.

Rescaling by their expected effect on employment growth, we see that the distirbution of annual import and export competition shocks is quite concentrated around 0, while the distribution of Bartik shocks is much more diffuse.

We look at different kinds of trade shocks (TS-Import and TS-Export), Bartik shocks (EG, EG-Construction, EG-Manufacturing), the Tariff Gap shock, and the Great Recession. They aren't that correlated with each other.

People study all sorts of different shocks and often at least implicitly consume research about them as if they're interchangeable, but rarely are these shocks actually compared to each other. That's step one for us, and they turn out not to be that similar to each other.

I have a new working paper out today with Sean, David, and Abbie. It's something of an empirical user guide for people working with commonly used local labor demand shocks. A few key points...

doi.org/10.26509/frb...

Ngl would be v funny if this is the thing that keeps Hassett from becoming chair

Anybody want to hang out in Philadelphia tonight?

Disability seems to be more common following health-related absences from work, which have been a good proxy for Covid in recent years.

Rising prevalence of disability is part of COVID-19's evolving labor market legacy Negative effects on labor force participation persist, as do higher rates of disability and employment among those with disabilities

Returned to @briefingbook.bsky.social today with @gsgoda.bsky.social to update on disability status and employment since the pandemic. Disability is still up, especially cognitive issues among young people. And, building on Gopi’s work with Evan Soltas… www.briefingbook.info/p/rising-pre...

Anybody know any econ of education journals that take short papers?

Thanks!

New job, new website kevinrinz.github.io

Thank you!

Thanks Ben!

Thanks Bobby!

Thanks Sarah!

Thanks Aaron!

Thanks Arin!

Some professional news: today is my last day with @equitablegrowth.bsky.social I’m excited to be joining @clevelandfed.bsky.social as a senior research economist on Monday. Also excited to be back in Cleveland in time to see the @cleguardians.com try to chase down the Tigers.

Anybody around DC have any use for some old econ textbooks? Or know of an institution that might?

Billy Trades Peña YouTube video by Trevolution

Just sitting here listening to the Guardians game, thinking about this scene from Moneyball for no particular reason youtu.be/YwmsSAvkzGE?...

The Proliferation of Private Digital Money Don’t say you didn’t see this financial crisis coming.

The Proliferation of Private Digital Money www.briefingbook.info/p/the-prolif...

Very cool!

The hidden trade-offs of nonwage job amenities for U.S. workers Research shows that “amenity trade-offs” can account for as much as two-thirds of the gender pay gap.

Super interesting column @equitablegrowth.bsky.social by Alex Bell on how identification by anti-instruments reveals attribute tradeoffs, applied to job quality.

Got to see him present it @upjohninstitute.bsky.social recently. New & interesting.
#EconSky
equitablegrowth.org/the-hidden-t...

The Heart of the Deal Why the US-UK trade deal might make both countries poorer

The Heart of the Deal www.briefingbook.info/p/the-heart-...

For the next three years, an optimistic tariff-advocate scenario looks a lot like that 2001-style recession. That’s an important point: the transition advocates mostly want to gloss over may in fact be a recession, which research suggests would have long-term consequences.

Ugh, thanks

Tariffs pose real risks to the U.S. labor market A look at labor market data reveals how trade policy and tariffs could affect U.S. workers in the medium and longer term.

Full piece here equitablegrowth.org/tariffs-pose...

There’s so much uncertainty that it’s impossible to say which of these scenarios, if any, will ultimately come to pass. But I think being concrete about what follows from reasonable changes to labor market dynamics is helpful.