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Jarmo Kikstra

@kikstra

Research scholar at IIASA. Imperial College London. Lead Author IPCC AR7 WG3. Climate, energy, economics, decent living standards, and justice.

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Latest posts by Jarmo Kikstra @kikstra

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Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal - Nature Climate Change Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity ...

In a new study, published today in Nature Climate Change, we explore how carbon dioxide removal (CDR) – approaches that take CO2 out of the atmosphere – may affect #biodiversity. 🦎🐌 doi.org/10.1038/s415...

30.01.2026 11:53 👍 11 🔁 7 💬 1 📌 1

Public discussion on the RCMIP3 protocol paper has now been opened!

Do send us your thoughts if you have any ideas on how we could make the intercomparison better!

06.02.2026 09:49 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models Abstract. Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are a key tool in climate research, enabling the rapid exploration of climate responses beyond the reach of more complex models and aiding in the estimation of f...

🎉 My first publication is out in Geoscientific Model Development!
📝 “Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models”
⭐ Selected as a GMD Highlight Article

Link: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

12.01.2026 16:15 👍 17 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 0

It is hard to overstate how critical @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is to climate science in the US and around the world. It's the beating heart of our field. Generations of scientists have trained there, and almost everyone I know relies on deep collaborations with NCAR scientists. It's end is unthinkable.

17.12.2025 02:50 👍 554 🔁 274 💬 28 📌 16
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Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections

21.11.2025 15:40 👍 9 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0
Group of five people standing outdoors holding copies of the Austrian Climate Report, smiling at the camera. A cityscape with glass buildings appears in the background. Text reads: "How Wikimedia Austria made climate science accessible by bringing it to Wikipedia."

Group of five people standing outdoors holding copies of the Austrian Climate Report, smiling at the camera. A cityscape with glass buildings appears in the background. Text reads: "How Wikimedia Austria made climate science accessible by bringing it to Wikipedia."

The 800-page Second Austrian Climate Report (AAR2) is now more accessible thanks to Wikimedia Austria.

Open licensing and a Wikimedian in Residence helped bring key findings to Wikipedia, Commons, and Wikidata, connecting climate science to everyday life.

Read more ➡️ w.wiki/FXHt

21.10.2025 13:26 👍 31 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 1
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Just published in PLOS Climate:

"Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project"

🔗 journals.plos.org/climate/arti...

@wcrp-cmip.org @juliearblaster.bsky.social @baylorfk.bsky.social @tatianailyina.bsky.social

09.10.2025 18:20 👍 9 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 0

A dancing rainbow!

01.11.2025 10:23 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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P.S. if I split out 'progressive/left' and call D66 and Volt 'progressive centre' then we find this picture

31.10.2025 09:19 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Yann Quilcaille: The 100 Most Influential Climate Leaders of 2025 Find out why Yann Quilcaille is on TIME's 2025 list of the 100 most influential leaders driving business climate action.

I'm proud to be part of the 2025 #TIME100Climate list of influential leaders.

Link to the full list of 2025 #TIME100Climate
time.com/collections/...

Link to my page in the 2025 #TIME100Climate
time.com/collections/...

30.10.2025 15:12 👍 20 🔁 3 💬 5 📌 0
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Minor update in morning estimate

30.10.2025 09:49 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
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I'm assuming Ipsos just shares the data directly with NOS, not anything else. The NOS website reads "© NOS. Bron: IPSOS, in opdracht van NOS en RTL"

29.10.2025 20:49 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Ah fair question - no I just based it on the news reporting.
Do you have a link?

29.10.2025 20:41 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

No changes in the 21:30 exitpoll update.

29.10.2025 20:33 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
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Dutch general elections happened today.
First exit poll is here.

Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)!

Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it.
github.com/jkikstra/ele...

29.10.2025 20:30 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 1
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The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures Abstract. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to ...

In addition to @openclimatedata.net on AR5; section 2.1.2 tried to summarise this for all ARs: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...

After writing it, I also wanted to do this. So if you embark on it I'm keen to help. I did already collect even older emissions data (RCP, AR4, SRES, even IS92!)

28.10.2025 17:38 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report.

The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025.

More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC

15.10.2025 09:17 👍 22 🔁 14 💬 0 📌 1
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Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors - Nature Climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed.

🚨 Important paper in Nature: "Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors".

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

10.09.2025 17:40 👍 190 🔁 92 💬 7 📌 17
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The @ipcc.bsky.social has announced the authors for its Seventh Assessment Report (#AR7). With 3 Coordinating Lead Authors & 10 Lead Authors, IIASA will play a key part in delivering the best available knowledge to guide effective and equitable climate action.
🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/aug-202...

26.08.2025 12:38 👍 7 🔁 7 💬 0 📌 0
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So, feel free to connect/reach out with anything you feel may be helpful research and suggestions!

Attached a screenshot with the topics we will cover in our chapter.

All chapter outlines: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...

15.08.2025 15:23 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

In light of the International Court of Justice’s reaffirmation of the importance of IPCC reports, I believe its very important to do our best to improve on past reports, as a scientific community, providing solid scientific evidence for what's very urgent: good, well-informed, climate action.

15.08.2025 15:23 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Honoured to serve as a Lead Author for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report!

Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches.

Team looks great! First big meeting in December.
All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...

15.08.2025 15:23 👍 21 🔁 4 💬 3 📌 1
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This is amongst the most impactful two minutes of broadcasting I’ve ever seen.

By Emma Murphy, International Editor, ITV News. #Gaza

04.08.2025 21:52 👍 4535 🔁 3270 💬 169 📌 409

- also here showing 'human-induced' forcing (only anthropogenic), whereas the paper generally presents data including also natural forcing (regular solar cycles). These solar cycle peaks can affect the total forcing or temp peaks a small bit too

14.07.2025 15:26 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

A few subtle differences:
- Fig 3 is temperature, not Effective Radiative Forcing
- the plot Ken is showing picks a few 'illustrative pathways', to highlight higher (two left) and very low (two right) climate outcomes. The paper always looks at larger _groups_ of scenarios

14.07.2025 15:24 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Thanks Ken :).
I thought this was a time to keep the y-axis constant across panels to highlight exactly that and accept that half of the facets are just whitespace -- show those contributors to warming don't matter nearly as much as CO2.

06.07.2025 08:37 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Overshoot Conference from 30 September to 2 October 2025 As the world faces the growing risk of exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold, understanding the risks and responses to climate overshoot across different disciplines has never been more urgent.

🚨Submission deadline ahead🚨

Join us for the world's first global conference at @iiasa.ac.at from Sep 30 to Oct 02.

(Extended) abstract deadline is around the corner (July 4). Don't miss it!

overshootconference.org/abstract-sub...

03.07.2025 05:25 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements - IOPscience Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements, Högner, Annika, Di Capua, Giorgia, Donges, Jonathan F, Donner, Reik V, Feulner, Georg, Wunderling, Nico

New study out, in which we detect a causal link in reanalysis+observational data from an AMOC SST index to the Southern Amazon rainforest: dry season precipitation increases when the AMOC weakens.

doi.org/10.1088/1748...

10.06.2025 08:36 👍 10 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

Yes, these scenarios also include (lots of) decarbonization

15.05.2025 13:54 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

That's definitely crucial. The scenarios themselves (created with integrated assessment models) in this paper suggest start from the current infrastructures and project pathways of structural change away from that.

15.05.2025 05:35 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0