Let the addiction take you on this one.
07.03.2026 13:14
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Let the addiction take you on this one.
A 5th round pick could be anything! It could even be a playable center!
Lmao, the correct answer.
The Terrance Ferguson breakout has to wait I guess.
They already have Tre Tucker at home.
Post-combine WR update! I'm splitting hairs with the top-five and this isn't the order I would draft them in. The model includes teammate adjustments and it produces the variables weights based on how much they've mattered historically. But I still wonder if Jeremiah Smith isn't properly accounted.
jj zUNChariason
Post-combine TE update! Biggest surprise to me is the gap between Sadiq and Stowers is shrinking fast. Stowers' athleticism isn't quite as insane as Sadiq's, but it's pretty close and he actually has production to match that athleticism. He checks nearly every box besides elite draft capital.
If/when Price's relatively poor combine hits his projected draft capital and Underdog ADP, his prediction is going to drop. But he's still one of only two backs in the class with a 6.3+ film grade from NFL.com. And I'd expect Mike Washington's stock to rise sharply in the next update.
Post-combine rookie RB update! And a guy that did basically nothing at the combine due to injury, Nick Singleton, is currently my RB3. We want pass catching, TDs, and explosive runs from our RBs. Singleton's 1.52 YPRR, nearly 8% career rushing TD rate, and estimated speed score check every box.
Was also surprised by this.
Jadarian Price being smaller and slower than I expected is probably not great for his draft capital.
Rookie QB primer! By far the least interesting position from a model perspective because it's so heavily weighted toward draft capital, with film grade and rookie year ADP also important. With only 2 QBs projected to go in Round 1...we only have 2 QBs that we truly care about in fantasy.
70.2% accuracy with 10 yards per attempt against pressure for "The Outlier" in 2020. Crazy year for him.
Only Lamar Jackson was a big ceiling hit early in his career with a pressure YPA below 7 yards. The other 7 players with 20+ FP/G averages were above that 7-yard mark. Shoutout to Sawyer Robertson as the only QB in this class that hits this bucket. The only problem is he's a Day 3 pick.
But I did want to call out college career pressure yards per attempt (YPA). A lot of the PFF pressure stats popped in the next tier of variables to care about. The graph below shows only QBs drafted in round 1. It has pressure YPA on the x-axis and FP per game in years 1-3 on the y-axis.
Rookie QB primer! By far the least interesting position from a model perspective because it's so heavily weighted toward draft capital, with film grade and rookie year ADP also important. With only 2 QBs projected to go in Round 1...we only have 2 QBs that we truly care about in fantasy.
Superflex rookie szn is officially here👀
@herms.bsky.social pulled together a 12-team superflex PPR rookie mock before combine data & ADP settle... Love or Mendoza at 1 & what that means for your rookie boards ⬇️
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/love-or-...
A few too many "probably"'s in there for my taste lol.
Darn! They’ve already thought of this!
I cannot wait for the first coach to kneel the ball to get back behind midfield so they can punt.
Please ignore Mullens, Trubisky, and Bagent. And if you do that, it's wheels up!
This is one of my favorite exercises each year, partially because I think the graph looks cool. But it's also useful. I really like ESPN Analytics' WR scores. The graph clusters WRs into 4 buckets based on their Open, Catch, and YAC scores. The player names are an example of each group.
As a Panthers fan, I don't think you'll be surprised to learn that Xavier Legette is in the bad group.
On the surface, the NGS separation stats look bad. But they're not measuring against an expected value. They just show the distance between the receiver and the nearest defender at the time of catch/incompletion. When you plug in the cushion and air yard values for context, their use improves a lot.
And it's the Open Score that we particularly care about from ESPN. This table is from last year but the correlations have mostly held. ESPN's Open Score has the best relationship with future-year YPRR and fantasy points.
And we have some big names in the Xavier Hutchinson group. Brian Thomas Jr (woof), Xavier Worthy, and Emeka Egbuka stood out the most to me. This group is typically below-average in every metric, with YAC their best category.
No surprise, well maybe slightly given the media coverage, you want your WR to be in the A.J. Brown cluster. These WRs tend to have elite Open and Catch scores and average YAC scores. This group has the league's superstars but also surprise names like Jalen Coker and Romeo Doubs (?).
This is one of my favorite exercises each year, partially because I think the graph looks cool. But it's also useful. I really like ESPN Analytics' WR scores. The graph clusters WRs into 4 buckets based on their Open, Catch, and YAC scores. The player names are an example of each group.
We’re sure they know the definition of the word?