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Joe Cirincione

@joecirin

I've been working on national security in Washington for over 40 years. Government, think tanks and philanthropy. Now retired, I still write, lecture and do media interviews. And I'm still learning. On Substack at: joecirincione.substack.com

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Latest posts by Joe Cirincione @joecirin

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When the news is as head-spinning as it was this week, these experienced reporters can slow it down and provide the insights and analysis to help us understand just what the hell is happening. New Pod today.
bit.ly/Click-2-Listen
YouTu.be/NvTR3eqpy6k

06.03.2026 16:44 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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So Iran now has, perhaps for the first time, information about the location of our most sensitive covert sites in the region.

A completely foreseeable, unnecessary consequence of unnecessary war with Iran.

06.03.2026 21:45 πŸ‘ 3047 πŸ” 1255 πŸ’¬ 267 πŸ“Œ 91

Of course, there is that awkward issue of Israel annexing southern Lebanon.

06.03.2026 21:39 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

I hear you.

06.03.2026 21:35 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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This mass killing of children is unconscionable. It bears the hallmarks of a war crime.

Trump & Hegseth must answer for the US's role & they must be held accountable. People deserve the full truth. There must be an immediate & transparent investigation.

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/w...

06.03.2026 20:14 πŸ‘ 418 πŸ” 123 πŸ’¬ 21 πŸ“Œ 5

Peel back the bravado and displays of male dominance and you see a rotting regime creating global chaos.

06.03.2026 20:06 πŸ‘ 85 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3
Preparing for the Horrific Unintended Consequences of the Iran War
Preparing for the Horrific Unintended Consequences of the Iran War YouTube video by The DSR Network

What happens next in Trump’s war of choice? How bad could it get? Watch my answer to @djrothkopf.bsky.social, then stay for smarter answers from @jonatomic.bsky.social and @edwardluce.bsky.social . Spoiler: Nothing good is coming out of this war. youtu.be/9vt_-eA2JgI?...

06.03.2026 19:27 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Ultimate Trump Card I take no pleasure in writing this, and you should take none in reading it

Think it’s bad now? It could get much worse. open.substack.com/pub/thinking...

06.03.2026 18:27 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3
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The Day Israel Lost America Excerpted from NEW YORK magazine

open.substack.com/pub/rosenber...

06.03.2026 18:11 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Just for context, $100 per barrel is recession territory.

06.03.2026 18:02 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Most Chilling Detail in the U.S. Attack on an Iranian Naval Ship The Iranian warship was taking part in an international exercise with many other countriesβ€”including the United States.

β€œThe sinking seems to be part of Hegseth’s new policy of ignoring β€˜stupid rules of engagement’ and β€˜punching them while they’re down.’ It raises questions of what the Trump administration would say if a country like Iran attacked an American ship it knew was unarmed. newrepublic.com/post/207429/...

06.03.2026 17:49 πŸ‘ 59 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 3
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It appears that the Iranian frigate was unarmed and on a peaceful visit. We have moved on from shooting helpless shipwrecked crews to torpedoing unarmed ships.

This from the former foreign secretary of India.

06.03.2026 17:42 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Well, we are using it to target school girls in Iran. Of course it is going to feel anxious.

Claude may have more humanity than Pete Hegseth.

06.03.2026 17:33 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Deeply delusional.

06.03.2026 17:22 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say Military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday, two U.S. officials told Reu...

Reuters Exclusive

"U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school."

"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the ​Middle East."

06.03.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 9929 πŸ” 5231 πŸ’¬ 622 πŸ“Œ 627

They want to do a Gaza style campaign in Iran.

06.03.2026 03:51 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

I had no idea that the ship was defenseless and hosted by India. The Navy sank a sitting duck. And Hegseth brags about it like it was a brilliant tactical victory. It was a cowardly act. But what can you expect from an administration that shoots defenseless men clinging to a shipwreck?

05.03.2026 22:29 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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The worst is yet to come, warns Hegseth. Still no apology for killing 150 school girls in Tehran. What are the targets for the massive assault he promises? It may be that we are at the beginning of a Gaza-style assault to smash the ability of Tehran to function, in the hope the regime falls.

05.03.2026 22:16 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1
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'You cannot bomb away another country's nuclear program. It's never worked β€” the knowledge is still there, the machinery is still there.'

CIP's @joecirin.bsky.social on the administration's case for war in Iran:

05.03.2026 20:16 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Exactly right. We have an afterimage effect here. Nations have a temporary, illusory perception of American competence that persists long after competence has disappeared. There was no careful planning for this war. No coordination with allies. No clear objectives or exit strategy. War on a whim.

05.03.2026 20:47 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

05.03.2026 20:40 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Scott MacFarlane
@MacFarlaneNews
Another ten-cent increase today here in DC

Scott MacFarlane @MacFarlaneNews Another ten-cent increase today here in DC

Trump is throwing your taxpayer dollars at an illegal war abroad, while you spend more for gasoline here at home.

05.03.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 128 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 3

Little known fact: Virtually all forms of lichen are smarter than Senator Markwayne Mullen.

05.03.2026 18:56 πŸ‘ 371 πŸ” 68 πŸ’¬ 22 πŸ“Œ 8

Stable Genius's new DHS simpleton made an illiterate

05.03.2026 19:26 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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β€œAmericans are dying.”

At the J Street National Convention, @vanhollen.senate.gov called on Congress to reclaim its authority over decisions of war and peace.

No president should be able to launch a war alone.

05.03.2026 19:31 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

This is too good. She about to find out in real time that Trump has fired her. Just perfect.

05.03.2026 19:38 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œ"So many [impact sites] so close together (relatively speaking) suggests there were one or more targets in close proximity to each other,"…

"[It] seems it was intentional to hit the area," he said, adding "But we don't know what they intended to strike."”

05.03.2026 19:32 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Trump’s claim that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon included an obvious tell Trump claimed Iran was two weeks away from possessing a nuclear weapon. During his presidency, major developments have always been two weeks away.

www.yahoo.com/news/article...

05.03.2026 18:17 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
β€˜Simply not true’: Nuclear security expert debunks Trump’s claims about Iran
β€˜Simply not true’: Nuclear security expert debunks Trump’s claims about Iran YouTube video by MS NOW

Here is the video of my interview with Alex Witt. We walk through the steps needed to make a nuclear bomb. It is clear that Iran cannot possibly be β€œtwo weeks from a bomb.” You can not find any expert who agrees with this blatant lie. youtu.be/3AQbF_R2UAg?...

05.03.2026 15:43 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | Trump's claim that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon included an obvious tell Jarvis DeBerry: Trump’s use of β€œtwo weeks” is enough by itself to warrant our skepticism.

I’m delighted to be included among the experts that @ms.now cites to debunk Trump’s absurd claim that Iran was β€œtwo weeks from a bomb.” www.ms.now/opinion/trum...

05.03.2026 15:39 πŸ‘ 42 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1