Jintro Pauly

In the spirit of their close partnership as set out in Article 4 of the Treaty of Aachen, France and Germany have decided to enter into closer cooperation in the field of deterrence in response to the evolving threat landscape. France and Germany have established a high-ranking nuclear steering group that will act as a bilateral framework for doctrinal dialogue and the coordination of strategic cooperation, including consultations regarding the appropriate mix of conventional, missile defence and French nuclear capabilities. France and Germany have agreed to take first concrete steps beginning this year, including German conventional participation in French nuclear exercises and joint visits to strategic sites as well as development of conventional capabilities with European partners. France and Germany will also increase their ability, as Europeans, to manage escalation beneath the nuclear threshold – in particular in the fields of Early Warning and Air Defense and Deep Precision Strike.

This Franco-German cooperation is based on the shared understanding that the nuclear dimension of deterrence remains a cornerstone of European security, relying on US extended deterrence, including US nuclear weapons forward-deployed to Europe, and on the independent strategic nuclear forces of France and the United Kingdom, which have a deterrent role of their own and contribute significantly to the overall security of the Alliance. This Franco-German cooperation will add to, not substitute for, NATO’s nuclear deterrence and NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements, to which Germany contributes and will continue to contribute. France and Germany will continue to comply with their obligations under international law including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In light of their strong commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and Art. 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union, Franco-German cooperation aims at strengthening the systems of collective security both countries belong to. It aims at enhancing Europe’s security as a whole. Special attention will be given to coordination with the United States, the United Kingdom, other Allies and NATO.

Joint declaration of President Macron and Chancellor Merz on closer Franco-German cooperation in the field of deterrence in response to the evolving threat landscape of 2 March 2026

www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/such...

EN DIRECT, discours d’Emmanuel Macron sur le nucléaire : le chef de l’Etat annonce que la France va permettre à ses alliés de « participer aux exercices de dissuasion nucléaire » et que huit pays euro... « Nous entrons sur le chemin de ce que j’appellerai la dissuasion avancée », a-t-il expliqué, en ajoutant que dans le cadre de cette nouvelle doctrine, « il n’y aura aucun partage de la décision ultim...

In his speech today, Macron announced a "forward deterrence" framework in which European allies can participate in 🇫🇷 nuclear exercises, support 🇫🇷 nuclear ops with conventional means, and nuclear weapons could be temporarily deployed to allied territory. 🇬🇧🇩🇪🇵🇱🇳🇱🇧🇪🇸🇪🇩🇰🇬🇷 will be joining this framework.

Ook Macrons toespraak deze middag over Frankrijks nucleaire doctrine belooft interessant te worden wat betreft dit thema.

Interessant artikel van @abrouwers.bsky.social vandaag in @demorgen.be, waarin verwezen wordt naar ons recente rapport "Mind the Deterrence Gap" over Europa's mogelijkheden en dilemma's bij het in stand houden van geloofwaardige nucleaire afschrikking: securityconference.org/en/publicati...

Belgian and French forces board Russian shadow-fleet vessel in joint operation:

Khamenei leidde een verschrikkelijk regime. Maar denk aan Mullah Omar (Aghanistan), Saddam Hussein (Irak), Moammar Khadaffi (Libië): de uitschakeling van een wrede leider brengt als zodanig geen democratie of een beter leven

Tver Police Detain Rassvet Founder Yekaterina Duntsova at Political Prisoner Event - The Moscow Times Police in the Tver region detained opposition figure Yekaterina Duntsova for questioning, her political party said Thursday evening.

Duntsova, who tried but failed to run against Vladimir Putin in the 2024 presidential election, was taken in for questioning on Thursday night.

‘Port of Antwerp to get anti-aircraft defence from 2027,’ says Prime Minister Bart De Wever | VRT NWS: news The port of Antwerp will get its own anti-aircraft defence system in 2027, Prime Minister Bart De Wever (Flemish nationalist N-VA) told a meeting of the Antwerp port community. Daily Gazet van Antwerp...

Belgium to install NASAMS air-defence system at the port of Antwerp, Europe's 2nd busiest port, from 2027 onwards:

www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/20...

Here, Меdiazona and BBC Russian Service have compiled a massive database of around 200,000 confirmed and documented Russian military servicemembers killed in Ukraine, as well as mercenaries and recruited prisoners.

In 4 years of russia's full-scale invasion, they've continuously claimed they want peace.
This is the only kind of 'peace' russia can offer🧵

Deze week werd de AfD-afdeling Nedersaksen als ‘gesichtert rechtsextrem’ beoordeeld door de veiligheidsdiensten. Vorig jaar gebeurde dat ook al voor de landelijke partij. Hoe zit dat precies? Lees meer over de AfD op @duitslandweb.bsky.social duitslandinstituut.nl/zoeken?tags=...

A northern Norway submarine comms cable has been damaged underwater rendering parts of west Finnmark offline.

Close by in Hammerfest is a large LNG-facility that seem unaffected. Police in Hammerfest still have connectivity. The affected area is sparsely populated.

www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...

🇷🇺 NEW | Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports & sanctions

📉 In January 2026, Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export revenues saw a marginal 3% month-on-month decline to EUR 464 mn per day — the lowest figures since full-scale invasion of Ukraine

Heute vor 6 Jahren tötete ein Rechtsextremer neun Menschen in Hanau. Kein Einzelfall. Die Radikalisierung des Täters im Netz auch nicht. Noch immer fluten Rechtsextreme Social Media mit rassistischen Inhalten. Wir müssen das ernst nehmen & handeln – bevor Gewaltfantasien wieder Wirklichkeit werden.

The militarization of Russia's economy continues at full speed: Production of weapons (here: "finished metal goods") increased by 20-30% last year. Source: forecast.ru

It was good to see this Spotlight on #Belarus in main programme of #MSC2026. We discussed the different US and EU approaches to sanctions & (non-)engagement with Lukashenka, the link betweeen democratic Belarus & #Ukraine and strategies of the Belarusian opposition in exile. See link ⬇️

The Rubio speech was not a detente.

It was the JD Vance message delivered with velvet rather than boxing gloves (h/t @fbermingham.bsky.social)

He signalled 0 actionable compromises to the EU other than implicitly asking Europe to close its borders / round up migrants (and then the US offers what?)

Classic Zelenskyy: "We can also give ceasefire for Russians if they will do elections in Russia."😏🤌

The true story of this @munsecconf.bsky.social, as of last year’s edition, is that there are two increasingly competing versions of what remains of “the West”, what it takes to salvage the remains and how to rebuild it.
Even Marco Rubio’s “reassurance” makes that abundantly clear.

Rubio: „Make Western Civilization great again“ (and save it from „civilizational erasure“, caused by „mass migration“ and „climate religion“). Wang Yi: „Let‘s save the UN, global governance and multilateralism“. 🤡

goed!

This morning, the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine & Germany, Andrii Sybiha & @aussenminister.diplo.de Johann Wadephul, officially opened the Ukraine House.

At #MSC2026, it will be the working hub for the Ukrainian delegation and provide a dedicated space for discussions, side events & briefings.

Die Angriffe auf die Energieversorgung der #Ukraine und der Ausfall von Strom, Wärme und Wasser trifft insbesondere ältere, pflegebedürftige und mobilitätseingeschränkte Menschen. Um hier schnell zu helfen, hat der ASB gemeinsam mit dem SSU ein "Evakuierungs- und Pflegeprojekt" gestartet.
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Agenda and Livestreams: Munich Security Conference 2026 Follow the MSC 2026 discussions live and explore the program!

📣 OUT NOW: Agenda MSC 2026

Nukleare Abschreckung: Europa droht eine Abschreckungslücke Ein neues nukleares Zeitalter hat eingesetzt, alte Gewissheiten europäischer Sicherheit gelten nicht mehr. Doch viele Politiker verhalten sich, als wäre nichts geschehen.

In ihrem Gastbeitrag in der @zeit.de warnen die Co-Vorsitzenden der European Nuclear Study Group @claudmajor.bsky.social, James D. Davis und MSC Director of Research & Policy @tobiasbunde.bsky.social vor einer nuklearen Abschreckungslücke in Europa.

Hier geht's zum Artikel ⬇️

Skeleton racer Heraskevych's father, Mykhailo, sitting near the start house, broke down in tears when the IOC disqualified his son from Olympics minutes before his first run. The decision was made as the athlete refused to remove a helmet bearing portraits of Ukrainian athletes killed in war.

Cover of the report of the European Nuclear Study Group - title: "Managing the Deterrence Gap: Assessing Europe's Nuclear Options." The report is part of a joint project of the Munich Security Conference, the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School, and the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen.

The report of our European Nuclear Study Group, co-chaired by James W. Davis, Claudia Major and me, is online now: securityconference.org/en/publicati... Our co-authors: Janina Dill, Héloïse Fayet, Liviu Horovitz, Łukasz Kulesa, Andreas Lutsch, Michal Onderco, Jintro Pauly, Julian Wucherpfennig.

Many thanks to my co-authors:
@tobiasbunde.bsky.social
James W. Davis
@claudmajor.bsky.social
@janinadill.bsky.social
@hfayet.bsky.social
@liviuhorovitz.bsky.social
Łukasz Kulesa
Andreas Lutsch
@profonderco.bsky.social
@wucherpfennig.bsky.social

And to my amazing @munsecconf.bsky.social colleagues!

Grappling with these key questions of European nuclear security and writing this report together with such a distinguished group of experts was truly a privilege.

I hope our report will inspire frank and well-informed debates on these questions at #MSC2026 and beyond.

The sobering conclusion in short: there are no good options.

And precisely therefore, it is essential Europeans start thinking now about which sub-optimal option(s) they want to invest in. Ignoring difficult questions now will - as ever so often - only raise the costs of action in the future.