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Z-curve

@replicationindex.com

MetaScience, MetaScientist, MetaPsycholog, UberScientist

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04.03.2025
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Latest posts by Z-curve @replicationindex.com

Dear authors, don’t waste our and your own time. - Replicability-Index Publish or perish. I heard this in the 1990s, but it is even more true today. Submitting manuscript to publish has gotten easier, too. It cost me real money to mail three copies of a manuscript from G...

When three reviewers (1 human, 2 AI) spot the same fatal flaw, why did the authors not see it or ask AI for a pre-submission review?
replicationindex.com/2026/03/05/d...

05.03.2026 13:18 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Did hindsight bias replicate? πŸ˜ƒ

25.02.2026 21:17 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Oversight Democrats have been investigating the handling of serious allegations by a survivor against Donald Trump when she was a minor. We have now confirmed that some of the documents related to this survivor appear to be missing from the files.

Here’s what we know ⬇️

24.02.2026 18:20 πŸ‘ 2892 πŸ” 1094 πŸ’¬ 88 πŸ“Œ 63

Meta-psychology is the scientific study of psychological scientists' behavior. They like z-curve as much, as rats liked a Skinner box. Too bad. Now you know how it feels to be a subject and not a participant.

23.02.2026 08:26 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Anti-Psychological Science (APS) - Replicability-Index No polite ChatGPT edits. Unfiltered raw Schimmack. Love it or hate it. It was supposed to be the American Psychological Society (APS), but international researchers complained - especially those who w...

Blogging is therapy.
replicationindex.com/2026/02/18/a...

18.02.2026 22:06 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Babbage, 1830, discussing the problem that scientists selectively report findings that they want to be true.

Confirmation bias is a strong human tendency. This is why we need to design science in a way that prevents conformation bias from leading us away from the truth.

14.02.2026 16:32 πŸ‘ 43 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1
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In standard scientific reports in psych 96% of first mentioned main hypotheses are supported. In Registered Reports, this is 46%. The 96% is clearly biased (given true H1 rate and power). Lack of transparency means we do not know the true baserate.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

14.02.2026 18:08 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
β€œValid Replications Require Valid Methodsβ€”And Originals Don’t?” - Replicability-Index Harmon-Jones, E., Harmon-Jones, C., Amodio, D. M., Gable, P. A., & Schmeichel, B. J. (2025). Valid replications require valid methods: Recommendations for best methodological practices with lab experi...

The replication crisis is only over when psychology journals stop publishing such biased articles that blame replication failures on replicators and not the use of p-hacking in original studies. Pathetic.
replicationindex.com/2026/02/13/r...

13.02.2026 21:37 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Is this finally the baseball quote, where somebody compared their 1/3 success rate to a 33% batting average in baseball?

05.02.2026 04:43 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I think it's best for everyone to understand that the unified class project of billionaires right now is to do to white collar workers what globalization and neoliberalism did to blue collar workers.

04.02.2026 19:41 πŸ‘ 12951 πŸ” 3434 πŸ’¬ 235 πŸ“Œ 242
BREAKING: Judge hits ICE agents with BRUTAL NEWS
BREAKING: Judge hits ICE agents with BRUTAL NEWS YouTube video by Brian Tyler Cohen

A Federal judge in Oregon ruled that ICE can NOT use chemicals on protestors for exercising their 1st amendment rights.
youtu.be/gvL9ckyrDTM?...

04.02.2026 03:40 πŸ‘ 3176 πŸ” 792 πŸ’¬ 206 πŸ“Œ 61

I am not a doctor.
I am a doctor of philosophy.
That just means I doctored my dissertation.
πŸ˜ƒπŸ˜πŸ˜‡

04.02.2026 17:04 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I want to laugh at it but sadly it’s true.

03.02.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 25048 πŸ” 8776 πŸ’¬ 960 πŸ“Œ 488
Concerns About Z-Curve: Evidence From New Simulations With Few Studies - Replicability-Index Scientific progress depends on criticism, especially when it is used to identify limitations of statistical methods and to improve them. z-curve is no exception. Over the past year, several critiques ...

Next level simulation work. The simulation is still running and you can check the results as they accumulate. Z-curve produces 95% CI with 95% coverage even with k = 50 sig. results across many realistic scenarios.
replicationindex.com/2026/02/03/c...

04.02.2026 05:08 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
β€œUnconscionable,” Jon thought as he found an email address online for the lead prosecutor, Joseph Dernbach, who was named in the story. Peering through metal-rimmed glasses, Jon opened Gmail on his computer monitor.

β€œMr. Dernbach, don’t play Russian roulette with H’s life,” he wrote. β€œErr on the side of caution. There’s a reason the US government along with many other governments don’t recognise the Taliban. Apply principles of common sense and decency.”

That was it. In five minutes, Jon said, he finished the note, signed his first and last name, pressed send and hoped his plea would make a difference.

Five hours and one minute later, Jon was watching TV with his wife when an email popped up in his inbox. He noticed it on his phone.

β€œGoogle,” the message read, β€œhas received legal process from a Law Enforcement authority compelling the release of information related to your Google Account.”

β€œUnconscionable,” Jon thought as he found an email address online for the lead prosecutor, Joseph Dernbach, who was named in the story. Peering through metal-rimmed glasses, Jon opened Gmail on his computer monitor. β€œMr. Dernbach, don’t play Russian roulette with H’s life,” he wrote. β€œErr on the side of caution. There’s a reason the US government along with many other governments don’t recognise the Taliban. Apply principles of common sense and decency.” That was it. In five minutes, Jon said, he finished the note, signed his first and last name, pressed send and hoped his plea would make a difference. Five hours and one minute later, Jon was watching TV with his wife when an email popped up in his inbox. He noticed it on his phone. β€œGoogle,” the message read, β€œhas received legal process from a Law Enforcement authority compelling the release of information related to your Google Account.”

A retiree wrote this email to a DHS attorney. Within five hours, DHS demanded Google turn over records for his account.

A Kafkaesque form of domestic surveillance, intimidating Americans for lawful speech.

New from us at the Post: www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio... @johnwoodrowcox.bsky.social

03.02.2026 15:15 πŸ‘ 2757 πŸ” 1298 πŸ’¬ 44 πŸ“Œ 73
How to Avoid Pek as Reviewer 2 - Replicability-Index The pattern is now familiar. I received another anonymous review by Reviewer 2 from a z-curve article that repeated Pek's concerns about the performance of z-curve. To deal with biased reviewers, jour...

The hidden power of anonymous peer reviewers in legacy journals with closed peer-review. Maybe just publish in open, scientific journals like Meta-Psychology.

replicationindex.com/2026/02/03/h...

04.02.2026 01:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Applied Social Psychology LOL

02.02.2026 20:52 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Based on the amazing FReD replication explorer, I finally have some evidence for the claim that the observed replication rate is lower in social than in disciplines like cognitive psychology

forrt.org/FReD-apps/ex...

1/

02.02.2026 12:56 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
Type S and M errors as a β€œrhetorical tool” Update 30/09/2025: I have added a reply by Andrew Gelman below my original blog post. Β  We recently posted a preprint criticizing the idea o...

Didn't Bem describe his PSI experiments as rhetorical devices?
daniellakens.blogspot.com/2025/09/type...

01.02.2026 21:18 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Another AI gem:
1. Articles optimize for novelty; books optimize for understanding

Maybe journal culture and performance indicators like H-index killed social science. Tower of bable. Every article starts with a new framework, no integration possible. Yes, I am writing a book.

01.02.2026 19:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
P-Hacking Preregistered Studies Can Be Detected - Replicability-Index One major contribution to the growing awareness that psychological research is often unreliable was an article by Daryl Bem (2011), which reported nine barely statistically significant results to supp...

old wine in new bottles, but if you haven't seen this preregistered p-hacked 9 study article yet, take a look
It even comes with a response by the authors, no we did not p-hack, but they did.
replicationindex.com/2026/01/18/p...

31.01.2026 16:44 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Reply to Erik van Zwet: Z-Curve Only Works on Earth - Replicability-Index In the 17th century, early telescopic observations of Mars suggested that the planet might be populated. Now imagine a study that aims to examine whether Martians are taller than humans. The problem i...

How do you respond to the concerns about z-curve that z-curve is a selection model and should not be used when there is no selection bias???
replicationindex.com/2026/01/27/z...

28.01.2026 18:32 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Ian Austin, an Army veteran, was arrested for protesting ICE in Minneapolis. But he’s continued protesting. Senior reporter @julialurie.bsky.social spoke to him.

β€œWhen they say, β€˜Why would you be out here?’ How the fuck could I not be out here?” he says. β€œMy nation is under attack."

27.01.2026 17:30 πŸ‘ 23699 πŸ” 9518 πŸ’¬ 657 πŸ“Œ 705

This was a really great discussion with people pushing the boundaries of scientific resesrch in their ManyMany projects. Really the cutting edge of scientific knowledge generation!

27.01.2026 19:19 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
On the Interpretation of Z-Curve Coverage in An Extreme Simulation Scenario - Replicability-Index Abstract A recent critique of z-curve reported low coverage of confidence intervals for the expected discovery rate (EDR) based on an extreme simulation with a very low expected false positive rate (a...

Me: Erik, you made a mistake in your simulation. Sometimes there were no false positives to detect missing non-significant tests of true H0
Erik: I’m not interested in more pointless discussions with you. I can do without your insults and misrepresentations.

replicationindex.com/2026/01/24/o...

26.01.2026 19:46 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

For context. Social psych has spread the claim "we are not alone but we are doing the mosr go improve" but their practices wete the worst. Not the same in other fields

25.01.2026 20:12 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The problem is not AI. The problem is human ab/users.
SPSS did not phack either

23.01.2026 03:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The existing reproducibility crisis is exacerbated by publication pressure. Lack of incentives for replication studies & funding difficulties make science vulnerable. AI could worsen this by enabling rapid generation of plausible but flawed papers. #Reproducibility 3/6

23.01.2026 02:00 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Some are better than others, but a blanket statement is not warranted. With reasonable set of studies, The random effects selection model implemented in weightr should always be used and results reported. Also @fbartos.bsky.social RoBMA.

22.01.2026 14:37 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

but how do you know whether effect sizes are large without checking publication bias, ego depletion went from .6 to .06.

22.01.2026 01:09 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0