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Jon B. Wolfsthal

@jonatomic

US Nuclear Policy Fellow - Pax Sapiens, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (doomsday clock setter), CNAS Sr. Fellow, former National Security Council - Sr. Director, Pope of Chili Town. No #manels, Yankees/Gunners.

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15.11.2024
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Latest posts by Jon B. Wolfsthal @jonatomic

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Four-byline alert: 🚨

β€œ.. Trump has privately expressed serious interest in deploying U.S. troops on the ground inside of Iran, according to two U.S. officials, a former U.S. official and another person with knowledge of the conversations.”

@nbcnews.com
www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...

07.03.2026 00:41 πŸ‘ 566 πŸ” 258 πŸ’¬ 89 πŸ“Œ 51

I believe Cheryl is discounting both the conditions on the ground at the sites and both US and Israeli capabilities.

06.03.2026 23:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Most Chilling Detail in the U.S. Attack on an Iranian Naval Ship The Iranian warship was taking part in an international exercise with many other countriesβ€”including the United States.

This is a chilling crime. A shame on our country. The Iranian ship was unarmed. The US knew this. The sailors were murdered by our navy, and the survivors were left to die at sea.
newrepublic.com/post/207429/...

06.03.2026 12:29 πŸ‘ 9401 πŸ” 4512 πŸ’¬ 538 πŸ“Œ 616
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> @benstiller.redhour.com

06.03.2026 19:36 πŸ‘ 10406 πŸ” 2175 πŸ’¬ 145 πŸ“Œ 81

American soldiers are dead.

What should a US President care about if not this?

06.03.2026 23:16 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Remembering the Iraqi Uprising Twenty-Five Years Ago | Council on Foreign Relations On February 15, 1991, four weeks into Operation Desert Storm, President George H.W. Bush, using identical language twiceβ€”at the White House and later at a Raytheon defense plant in Massachusettsβ€”encou...

I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones of Operations Provide Comfort I/II. πŸ‘‡
www.cfr.org/articles/rem...

06.03.2026 22:06 πŸ‘ 86 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 3

Sworn

06.03.2026 21:50 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

100%

06.03.2026 21:50 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preparing for the Horrific Unintended Consequences of the Iran War
Preparing for the Horrific Unintended Consequences of the Iran War YouTube video by The DSR Network

What happens next in Trump’s war of choice? How bad could it get? Watch my answer to @djrothkopf.bsky.social, then stay for smarter answers from @jonatomic.bsky.social and @edwardluce.bsky.social . Spoiler: Nothing good is coming out of this war. youtu.be/9vt_-eA2JgI?...

06.03.2026 19:27 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

American soldiers are dead.

It matters.

06.03.2026 18:57 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Ultimate Trump Card I take no pleasure in writing this, and you should take none in reading it

For some, the words unconditional surrender lead to one vivid historical fact. We cannot continue to discount the risks of nuclear use by the President.

open.substack.com/pub/thinking...

06.03.2026 18:18 πŸ‘ 37 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2

The United States had a massive army in Europe that occupied both countries after years of conventional combat

06.03.2026 18:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Neocons famously thought the Empire were the good guys - a meritocracy fighting against religiously fueled zealots seeking world government.

06.03.2026 16:26 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

do you think nuclear weapons use by this President is foreseeable?

06.03.2026 15:45 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

And in WWII that standard led to the nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

06.03.2026 14:35 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Unconditional surrender was the standards the US sought with Japan in WWII and led to the dropping of the only two nuclear weapons in the history of warfare . . . . and even then Japan was able to obtain conditions including the continuation of the Imperial line.

06.03.2026 14:34 πŸ‘ 67 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2
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Virginia moves to forbid schools from teaching that Jan. 6 was peaceful In what appears to be a first in the country, legislation headed to the desk of Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) would prohibit public schools from teaching that the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capit...

Virginia lawmakers have passed a first-of-its-kind bill that prohibits schools from teaching that the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection was a peaceful demonstration or that there was massive fraud in the 2020 presidential election.

06.03.2026 14:30 πŸ‘ 351 πŸ” 87 πŸ’¬ 29 πŸ“Œ 15

I am appalled at the war and you are right to consider how US actions implicate the US, Trump and the Aussie/US alliance. But I do not see how sailors serving under a US captain in a war have much choice. They are sword to obey lawful orders. The alternative would literally have been mutiny.

06.03.2026 14:12 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Welcome Jon B. Wolfsthal as Fellow for U.S. Nuclear Policy - PAX sapiens

I am thrilled to announce that I've joined @paxsapiens.bsky.social as the inaugural US Nuclear Policy Fellow. Pax is doing critical work, and the need for practical steps to reduce the risk of nuclear use is more urgent than it has been for many decades. paxsapiens.org/newsroom/wel...

06.03.2026 14:06 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

They are active duty naval officers on a submarine and under the command of their captain.

06.03.2026 02:16 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
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State Department Is Accused of Slow Assistance for Stranded Americans

β€œThis war started at a time of our choosing,” said Yael Lempert, a career diplomat who served as ambassador to Jordan in the Biden administration. β€œIt should have come as no surprise that airspace would close, and commercial flight options would be curtailed.”

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/u...

06.03.2026 01:42 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Fired, But For the Wrong Reason Today, Donald Trump fired DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

I’m not mad she’s gone, but let’s talk about what’s really at stake here. open.substack.com/pub/joycevan...

06.03.2026 00:50 πŸ‘ 991 πŸ” 225 πŸ’¬ 47 πŸ“Œ 15
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Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base

U.S. forces likely bombed an Iranian elementary school on Feb. 28 during an operation targeting a nearby military base, a New York Times analysis suggests. It is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran β€” and no side has yet taken responsibility.

05.03.2026 22:39 πŸ‘ 974 πŸ” 509 πŸ’¬ 119 πŸ“Œ 104
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DHS’S ESCALATING LAWLESSNESS HAS COST LIVES; KRISTI NOEM AND STEPHEN MILLER MUST RESIGN Democracy Defenders Fund issues the following statement in response to recent actions by the Department of Homeland Security and its immigration enforcement agencies.

Kristi Noem is gone from DHS

But the allegations of misconduct, self-dealing & cover-up don’t leave with her

@democracydefendersfund.org called for Noem & Miller to resign & we’ll keep calling for accountability

The reckoning continues -TN

05.03.2026 19:40 πŸ‘ 421 πŸ” 113 πŸ’¬ 21 πŸ“Œ 0

This is really an important statement from Rep. Foster, confirming that even at the classified level, the administration has no plan at all to secure Iran's several bombs' worth of HEU. That's a huge danger to U.S. security -- from Iran, or from "loose nukes."

05.03.2026 19:02 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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NOEM FIRED

Trump taps Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin as replacement

05.03.2026 18:44 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 13 πŸ“Œ 10

People were right to be upset at evacuation chaos from Kabul under Joe Biden. Now US citizens across the gulf are stranded as a result of a war Trump started and those voices are where exactly?

05.03.2026 18:41 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

ICYMI

05.03.2026 16:28 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

i really don't think Hegseth realized the diplomatic consequences of that strike

05.03.2026 15:44 πŸ‘ 2179 πŸ” 690 πŸ’¬ 31 πŸ“Œ 50

I guess that depends on how long you think Iran can continue to strike out beyond its borders and whether US just walks away?

05.03.2026 15:35 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0