@jonatomic
US Nuclear Policy Fellow - Pax Sapiens, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (doomsday clock setter), CNAS Sr. Fellow, former National Security Council - Sr. Director, Pope of Chili Town. No #manels, Yankees/Gunners.
NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America's 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵
Gulf officials are now warning that production shutdowns could send the oil price to $150 per barrel, potentially causing price shocks in the U.S. ahead of November’s midterm U.S. elections. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
There Is One Crucial Reason We’re Talking About Boots on the Ground www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/o...
Great piece by @wjhenn.bsky.social
One item I’ll highlight - under 2015 Obama deal Iran would only had had enough U for one bomb at 3.67 enrichment. Not 6-7 worth at 60%. This is all on Trump
Four-byline alert: 🚨
“.. Trump has privately expressed serious interest in deploying U.S. troops on the ground inside of Iran, according to two U.S. officials, a former U.S. official and another person with knowledge of the conversations.”
@nbcnews.com
www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...
I believe Cheryl is discounting both the conditions on the ground at the sites and both US and Israeli capabilities.
This is a chilling crime. A shame on our country. The Iranian ship was unarmed. The US knew this. The sailors were murdered by our navy, and the survivors were left to die at sea.
newrepublic.com/post/207429/...
> @benstiller.redhour.com
American soldiers are dead.
What should a US President care about if not this?
I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones of Operations Provide Comfort I/II. 👇
www.cfr.org/articles/rem...
Sworn
100%
What happens next in Trump’s war of choice? How bad could it get? Watch my answer to @djrothkopf.bsky.social, then stay for smarter answers from @jonatomic.bsky.social and @edwardluce.bsky.social . Spoiler: Nothing good is coming out of this war. youtu.be/9vt_-eA2JgI?...
American soldiers are dead.
It matters.
For some, the words unconditional surrender lead to one vivid historical fact. We cannot continue to discount the risks of nuclear use by the President.
open.substack.com/pub/thinking...
The United States had a massive army in Europe that occupied both countries after years of conventional combat
Neocons famously thought the Empire were the good guys - a meritocracy fighting against religiously fueled zealots seeking world government.
do you think nuclear weapons use by this President is foreseeable?
And in WWII that standard led to the nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Unconditional surrender was the standards the US sought with Japan in WWII and led to the dropping of the only two nuclear weapons in the history of warfare . . . . and even then Japan was able to obtain conditions including the continuation of the Imperial line.
Virginia lawmakers have passed a first-of-its-kind bill that prohibits schools from teaching that the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection was a peaceful demonstration or that there was massive fraud in the 2020 presidential election.
I am appalled at the war and you are right to consider how US actions implicate the US, Trump and the Aussie/US alliance. But I do not see how sailors serving under a US captain in a war have much choice. They are sword to obey lawful orders. The alternative would literally have been mutiny.
I am thrilled to announce that I've joined @paxsapiens.bsky.social as the inaugural US Nuclear Policy Fellow. Pax is doing critical work, and the need for practical steps to reduce the risk of nuclear use is more urgent than it has been for many decades. paxsapiens.org/newsroom/wel...
They are active duty naval officers on a submarine and under the command of their captain.
“This war started at a time of our choosing,” said Yael Lempert, a career diplomat who served as ambassador to Jordan in the Biden administration. “It should have come as no surprise that airspace would close, and commercial flight options would be curtailed.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/u...
I’m not mad she’s gone, but let’s talk about what’s really at stake here. open.substack.com/pub/joycevan...
U.S. forces likely bombed an Iranian elementary school on Feb. 28 during an operation targeting a nearby military base, a New York Times analysis suggests. It is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran — and no side has yet taken responsibility.
Kristi Noem is gone from DHS
But the allegations of misconduct, self-dealing & cover-up don’t leave with her
@democracydefendersfund.org called for Noem & Miller to resign & we’ll keep calling for accountability
The reckoning continues -TN
This is really an important statement from Rep. Foster, confirming that even at the classified level, the administration has no plan at all to secure Iran's several bombs' worth of HEU. That's a huge danger to U.S. security -- from Iran, or from "loose nukes."
NOEM FIRED
Trump taps Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin as replacement
People were right to be upset at evacuation chaos from Kabul under Joe Biden. Now US citizens across the gulf are stranded as a result of a war Trump started and those voices are where exactly?