Stagflation risks rising in the US
06.03.2026 17:56
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Stagflation risks rising in the US
It certainly is a war which is why it is labelled as such in my fig 🙄
The Iranian conflict is a big geopolitical shock in relative terms, and one that will be stagflationary for Europe and the US
My piece in @financialtimes.com on our Geopolitical Mood index and lessons for central bankers from geopolitical shocks past
as.ft.com/r/ff95a5f1-d...
this the FT not The Onion
New Fed paper out on the history of central bank independence—how it came to be, what it actually means legally, and what presidents, Fed chairs, and Congress really said about it over the decades.
Fair warning: It's a deep dive into historical archives, which means ... it's dense!
Astonishing chart from @chrisgiles.ft.com showing what happens to the path of UK govt debt if income tax thresholds rise with prices rather than wages.
I've been following UK econ forever, but seem I've not been paying attn, as this was news to me.
www.ft.com/content/0b2b...
Guys, the Italian unemployment rate has just fallen below the UK's.
New 🏭: The price of natural gas in Europe has surged almost 80% since Friday after Iranian strikes on the world's second-largest exporter Qatar and the effective closure of key shipping routes... But zooming out, we're still a long way from the 2022 price crisis
Worryingly from a European inflation perspective, the price of natural gas is leaping higher. But the Iran price impact is still wayyy below Russia invasion of Ukraine impact
as.ft.com/r/ae56dcb3-d... In charts: How serious is the Middle East gas price shock?
The probability of a US attack on Iran shot up on Polymarket well ahead of the attack, great figure and coverage of insider trading on the platform by @chriscook.news & co 👇👇
as.ft.com/r/e8bda9f9-4...
The FT's geopolitical mood index is cratering (of course).
The US-Israel v Iran conflict is much larger negative geopolitical shock than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In case wasn't obvious: this is a big one!
Details on index construction: as.ft.com/r/934fb501-4...
Indeed! The loanable funds model suggests r* should rise now from AI productivity boom (assuming it’s happening) because households expect higher future real income gains and save less. Hard to square w pervasive fear of permanent widespread unemployment
“Hey @grok remove the pedophile from this picture” and it removes Donald Trump and nobody else.
Big hat tip @wapplehouse.bsky.social for this:
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In sum: there is a range of narratives that can be spun about real interest rates in a world of higher productivity growth
What does this mean for rate-setters? Don't take a risky bet that you can lower rates like Warsh wants! Instead, data dependency remains important
as.ft.com/r/6a80c1fe-4...
The rational textbook expectation of higher real incomes on the part of households doesn't square with pervasive fear of permanent AI unemployment
Michigan survey shows a historic high of households expecting zero real income growth over the next five years
In short: Kevin Warsh thinks 'yes', his future colleagues on FOMC largely 'no'
But the economic theory and data are not so clear. For example the textbook expectation of higher productivity leading to higher real rates has not held in the last 100+ years
Will AI-induced productivity growth allow the Fed to lower interest rates?
I wrote about this debate in the @financialtimes.com today 👇👇
as.ft.com/r/6a2c4cb0-8...
Yes, pre 1776 norms
aaaaaand: 175 entities in the network were sanctioned today by the UK.
Headline US GDP far lower than expected, even 'core' GDP growth -- which was a healthier 2.4% -- has been trending down since 2023. Growing economic momentum? Not so much
www.ft.com/content/0086...
The political effects of X's feed algorithm https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2 Received: 16 December 2024 Accepted: 4 January 2026 Published online: 18 February 2026 Open access • Check for updates Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects. Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.
A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right.
Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement.
This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.
You prefer the curling?!
Surely more people want to watch the women’s ice hockey gold medal game BBC than men’s curling ?!
New by me on how polymarket stacks up against financial market for predicting Fed decisions. Answer: narrowly better!
as.ft.com/r/90dbb2b1-7...
This is v important piece on UK maternal care by @laurahughesft.bsky.social but makes for difficult reading
My wife encountered this with our second child, thankfully everything ended up OK but there were a series of very dangerous mistakes made
as.ft.com/r/24e63817-d...
Agreed! It would also accelerate transition to electric
Juxtoposing with this story and sure seems as though Trump wilfully doing damage to US car industry (see also Canada tariffs): as.ft.com/r/0c860176-e...
Viktor Orbán hoping for a US “bailout package” to help his sinking poll prospects ... the US admin is pushing for MAGA mould nationalist populists wherever it can
www.politico.eu/article/hung...
This is frightening: "Homicide, suicide, and drug overdose accounted for more than one fourth of maternal deaths"