📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 27% (+1)
GRN: 21% (+3)
CON: 17% (-1)
LAB: 15% (-)
LDEM: 10% (-2)
via @FindoutnowUK, 04 - 06 Mar
Chgs. w/ 25 Feb
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 12pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 30% (-1)
CON: 18% (+2)
LAB: 18% (-5)
GRN: 13% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+2)
via @OpiniumResearch, 25 - 27 Feb
Chgs. w/ 06 Feb
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 2pts, Grns in second
Westminster voting intention
REF: 23% (-1)
GRN: 21% (+4)
CON: 16% (-2)
LAB: 16% (-2)
LDEM: 14% (-)
via @YouGov, 01 - 02 Mar
Chgs. w/ 22 Feb
👇 Read this
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
At day 586 in Number 10, Keir Starmer ranks rock bottom in recent history.
Starmer: -45
Brown: -28
Sunak: -27
May: -17
Thatcher: -15
Cameron: -11
Johnson: -5
Major: +10
Blair: +37
Truss: N/A
britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...
Gorton and Denton by-election result:
GRN: 40.7% (+27.5)
REF: 28.7% (+14.7)
LAB: 25.4% (-25.3)
CON: 1.9% (-6.0)
LDEM: 1.8% (-2.1)
Green GAIN from Labour.
Green GAIN Gorton and Denton from Labour.
Reform activists hearing Matt Goodwin has all but conceded defeat to the Greens.
Gorton and Denton turnout:
47.6% (+0.8)
36,903 votes cast
✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD
Shirley (Southampton) council by-election result:
LDEM: 27.4% (-11.8)
LAB: 26.8% (+2.8)
REF: 19.1% (+19.1)
GRN: 15.1% (+7.6)
CON: 8.1% (-16.1)
IND: 3.4% (-0.2)
+/- 2024
Estimated turnout: ~34% (+4)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew's Previews of...
Gorton and Denton, a Labour defence;
& Shirley (Southampton), a Lib Dem defence!
andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...
Stand by for the BRITAIN ELECTS WITH BEN WALKER election night live stream, coming to you... in the next hour.
Or less than that.
It'll be up when it's up.
www.youtube.com/@britainelects
www.twitch.tv/britainelects
x.com/britainelects
How Gorton and Denton could vote if the tactical voting option is emphatically perceived by voters to be Green or Labour
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
The Britain Predicts final forecast for Gorton and Denton, complete with ranges:
GRN: 31% (25-38)
REF: 30% (30-33)
LAB: 29% (22-34)
Drilldown, including what built it:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 28% (-)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 20% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (+3)
GRN: 11% (-1)
via @Moreincommon_, 20 - 23 Feb
Chgs. w/ 13 Feb
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 24% (-)
CON: 18% (-)
LAB: 18% (-1)
GRN: 17% (-)
LDEM: 14% (+1)
via @YouGov, 22 Feb
Chgs. w/ 15 Feb
britainelects.com
The Parliamentary Special edition of Andrew's Previews is brewing nicely. You will not want to miss it. Subscribe now at andrewteale.me.uk/previews
✅ Conservative HOLD
Worth Valley (Bradford) council by-election result:
CON: 51.7% (-4.7)
REF: 26.1% (+26.1)
LAB: 12.1% (-19.6)
GRN: 7.0% (-1.0)
LDEM: 2.4% (-1.6)
IND: 0.8% (+0.8)
+/- 2024
Estimated turnout: ~32% (-6)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
❗ Reform GAIN from Labour
Fletton and Woodston (Peterborough) council by-election result:
REF: 29.4% (+29.4)
GRN: 27.6% (+6.8)
CON: 21.8% (-15.0)
LAB: 16.8% (-20.6)
LDEM: 4.4% (-0.6)
+/- 2023, when seat was last up
Estimated turnout: ~25% (-)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 26% (+1)
LAB: 19% (-2)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 14% (-)
via @YouGov, 02 Feb
Chgs. w/ 26 Jan
britainelects.com
Has Labour been learning the lessons of the Reform ascendency? We have some findings from Ground Zero 👇
open.substack.com/pub/britaine...
Britain Elects poll tracker at the end of January
REF: 29%
LAB: 19%
CON: 19%
GRN: 14%
LDEM: 13%
> A less dramatic Reform drift than seen elsewhere
> Lab and Cons neck and neck for second
britainelects.com
📊 Ref lead of 11pts
REF: 31% (+2)
CON: 20% (+1)
LAB: 18% (-3)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 12% (+1)
via @Survation, 29 Jan
Chgs. w/ 14 Jan
britainelects.com
How Greater Manchester would vote in an election held today:
via Britain Predicts
✅ Conservative HOLD
Willaston and Thornton (Cheshire West and Chester) council by-election result:
CON: 53.8% (-7.1)
LAB: 17.2% (-9.3)
REF: 16.1% (+16.1)
LDEM: 7.1% (+2.4)
GRN: 5.8% (-2.2)
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~45% (+1)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Andrew Gwynne (Gorton and Denton) has now resigned as a Member of Parliament.
❗ Green GAIN from Reform
Tuesday's Horsley (Derbyshire) council by-election result:
GRN: 43.6% (+16.7)
REF: 35.5% (+0.6)
CON: 13.9% (-9.0)
LAB: 3.8% (-6.5)
ADV: 1.9% (+1.9)
LDEM: 1.4% (-2.0)
No Ind (-1.7) as prev.
+/- 2025
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
❗ Reform GAIN from Labour
Tuesday's Codnor, Langley Mill and Aldercar (Amber Valley) council by-election result:
REF: 45.9% (+24.4)
LAB: 19.2% (-20.7)
ADV: 12.4% (+10.6)
CON: 10.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 5.9% (-5.5)
LDEM: 3.2% (+3.2)
+/- 2023
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
It's by-election TUESDAY!
2 polls are taking place today: a RUK defence on Derbyshire CC, and a Lab defence elsewhere in Amber Valley district
All the salient points you need to know can be found in Andrew's Previews for @britainelects.com
andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...
New Scottish Parliament poll, Norstat 13-16 Jan (vs 22-25 Sep):
List:
SNP ~ 29% (nc)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
RUK ~ 16% (-2)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
Grn ~ 11% (+3)
LD ~ 9% (-1)
Alba ~ 4% (nc)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (+1)
Lab ~ 19% (+2)
RUK ~ 17% (-3)
Con ~ 11% (+1)
LD ~ 9% (-2)
Grn ~ 7% (nc)
📊 Ref lead of 5pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 24% (-)
LAB: 19% (-)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 17% (+3)
LDEM: 14% (-2)
via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jan
Chgs. w/ 12 Jan
britainelects.com
