G Elliott Morris

6th this week! Including Crenshaw losing, plus Zinke, Owens, Gonzeles, Issa, and Daines over in the other chamber.

How to Measure Public Support for Political Violence Abstract. With low but rising levels of violent political threats and violent acts by civilians in the United States, researchers increasingly want to meas

After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence, @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

Not a bad idea

Trying something new w the podcast next wk & inviting someone on to do a special interview episode rather than the usual framing. We are calling it a “deep dive” episode.

What broader, not-so-newsy questions do y’all have about politics or polls right now that I could help answer with a good guest?

If you commit the Strategist's Fallacy then you think that Labour moving right on immigration shores up Tory and Reform defectors

But if center/right parties won't vote for you because conditions are poor, all you've done is force your base to flee to the left
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...

The high cost of rolling over on immigration What Matt Yglesias, Hakeem Jeffries, and Keir Starmer got wrong about the politics of immigration

I wrote about this and the lessons in Labour's collapse for the U.S. Democratic Party back in December

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-cost-o...

These plots shows the highest-leverage policies that win back defectors on both the left and right:

- Increase pay for public sector
- Decrease cost of bus and train tickets
- Wealth tax on billionaires

and the winnable left bloc is bigger than the right

By moving right on immigration & other key issues, and generally coming off as incompetent (esp on cost of living), UK Labour is losing vote share to left-wing parties AND to right-leaning ones. This is what happens when a party appeases its opponents & loses its core identity.

Record high support for abolishing ICE in latest YouGov/Economist data

What divides MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans on foreign policy? Plus, how Americans think the founders would evaluate the country today, and Trump’s falling numbers among Hispanics

What divides MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans when it comes to foreign policy and Iran? For 50+1's weekly polling roundup, The Trendline, we took a look at the numbers:
blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/what-divid...

🫡🫡

can i just say... since i was invoked... i did not write that the economy was "destroyed." but i do think the trend line is bad, especially on manufacturing, tech, and gov workers, and voters say this is trump's fault

Subscribe to Strength In Numbers Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris. Click to read Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, a ...

I am lucky enough to write political analysis and run polls for a living because many readers support Strength In Numbers with paid subscriptions. If it's in your budget, please support the site. You'll get access to premium weekly analysis and poll crosstabs!
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The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February.
According to our polling, 24% of Americans say Trump has made the economy better since becoming president, vs 53% who say he's made things worse.
Voters say 2:1 Trump isn't focused enough on the things they care about.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/53-of-amer...

liberated... from economic growth

There's been about a 10-point increase in support for attacking Iran since Feb 23, according to YouGov. That's driven entirely by Republicans rallying around Trump

There's been about a 10-point increase in support for attacking Iran since Feb 23, according to YouGov. That's driven entirely by Republicans rallying around Trump

trump is doing everything in his power to make the midterms as bad as possible for the gop

Trafalgar group winning awards for writing the most leading question possible.

All the polls on the U.S. war in Iran so far According to a simple average of new high-quality surveys, 38% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove of U.S. military action. When ignoring "don't know" respondents, 56% disapprove

All the polls on the U.S. war in Iran so far

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-us-i...

If you ignore people who say they “don’t know” how they feel about the war, disapproval of Trump’s actions is already at 56%. That is higher than the resistance to Vietnam in 1971.

department of "limited overseas military operation"

First poll I've seen on support for impeaching Trump over his handling of the Epstein files www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/2/...

noem? more like noe more

Taking questions for the interactive segment of our live podcast taping happening at 2PM Eastern! We love audience questions. Put them in this thread: open.substack.com/chat/posts/b...

Not my model, L2's, and yes I think so

bingo

let me put it this way: once you control for race, the income coefficient is close to zero, and in fact may be negative for mamdani (super-rich whites are the most pro-cuomo group in the electorate)

Since everyone is talking about new voters, I pulled up the Virginia voter file to check how many 2025 general election voters were non-2024 voters. Per L2, that number is 200k, or about 6% of all ballots cast in the race. These 200k were modeled at 60% Dem and 20% Rep