“Sulfur is essentially the commodity that is most exposed,” said Mr. Lawson at the CRU Group. “It’s fairly astonishing, the exposure that all these different markets have to sulfur as a raw material.” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/b...
NYT on impact on agricultural inputs of Gulf conflict: "If sulfur becomes scarce, that will be felt most acutely in Morocco, where factories use it to make phosphate fertilizer ..."
Nairobi: "Some residents blamed the flooding on clogged drainage systems, stating that city authorities ought to have prepared by ensuring there was functional drainage infrastructure ahead of the rainy season." apnews.com/article/keny...
IMF working paper: "Tenures of governors with politically motivated appointments are associated with higher and more volatile inflation, realized and expected." www.imf.org/en/publicati...
"and financial policies to safeguard macroeconomic stability in Gabon and the region. Policy dialogue with the authorities will continue in the weeks ahead, including during the upcoming IMF Spring Meetings." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
Gabon / IMF mission: "Discussions highlighted the potential benefits of ongoing reforms to improve public financial management, governance, the business climate and to fight corruption, and underscored the criticality of ensuring prudent fiscal ..."
"Senegal has announced a plan to close 19 govt agencies which account for around 1,000 jobs, with officials in the debt-burdened country expecting the move to save at least 55 bn CFA francs ($97.95 million) over the next three years, a statement said." www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/senegal...
"Part of the fiscal savings generated by the swap will be redirected toward expanding access to education, contributing to improved human capital outcomes and enhanced job opportunities for future generations." www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
"This mechanism aims to prepay costly commercial debt with the proceeds of a competitively procured and guaranteed commercial loan, thereby reducing debt service costs and improving debt sustainability ..."
Angola / World Bank DPF ($750m) plus guarantees ($240m + 2nd loss) to enable a debt for development swap: "The two guarantees will provide the Government of Angola with additional fiscal space to invest in its development priorities through a debt-for-development swap ..."
"However, in light of the electoral calendar, discussions would be expected to resume only after the general elections later this year and after a new government is in place, which would allow for greater clarity on policy priorities." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
Zambia / IMF mission: “The authorities reiterated their interest in a successor arrangement. Staff emphasized that the next phase of engagement should focus on further strengthening macroeconomic stability & advancing reforms to improve the business climate & support private sector‑led growth ..."
For Iraq: "[Fraser McKay, Wood Mackenzie]. In the case of Iraq’s Rumaila field, which is in the process of shutting down, the loss of gross revenue each month is around $2.4bn, he estimated. Meanwhile, its operators will still have to bear its fixed operating costs of $750mn a year."
“Practically, it is very difficult for any navy to escort ships through that narrow strait,” said Ellis Morley, specialist in cargo and commodities at Howden, an insurance broker. “That horseshoe shape of the Strait keeps ships in the most dangerous area for a long time.”
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
"The Egyptian petroleum ministry said in a statement the tanker was not bound for any of Egypt's ports and that it was not listed under supply or liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo contracts to the country." www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
Emirate of Abu Dhabi / publication of a Eurobond program supplement & pricing supplement for new 2031 and 2036 bonds ($3bn). Date of the supplement is last Thursday (and therefore does not refer to the current conflict). Budget numbers likely to change. www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article...
Interesting terminology: "This has resulted in a number of “frustrated exports” — [gold & silver] goods that have already been submitted for customs clearance and must be formally withdrawn before they can be rerouted."
South Africa (Reuters): "Backed by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) & the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), the five-year bond aims to finance ecological restoration, including removing invasive plants and rehabilitating catchment areas to enhance water security." www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
"Only 16 times since 1983 has Brent crude gained more than 7% with gold down and bond yields up. More than half of those times stocks actually rose, and the S&P 500 never fell 2%, as it did at its low on Tuesday morning." www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
"The plan—known as Vision 2030—was already facing many revisions and delays before the Iran conflict due to growing budgetary pressures. The initiative increasingly relied on foreign investors to bridge the funding gap, an ambition now caught directly in the crossfire." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
WSJ article on impact of the Middle East / Gulf conflict on GCC diversification strategies: "The escalation threatens the region’s broader ambitions, including Saudi Arabia’s multitrillion-dollar plan to diversify away from oil ..."
“We’re going to end up spending a lot more on the military, and it’s going to have implications for interest rates and inflation,” Mr. [Ken] Rogoff said. “That’s baked in the cake.” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/b...
Minerals supply chain (Reuters): "Traffic through Kasumbalesa, the busiest crossing [to Zambia] for [DR] Congo’s metal shipments – mainly destined for China & the United States – was suspended on Sunday after heavy rains washed away a portion of the road." www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
AFP: "But the strait is essential to all regional trade as it allows access to Dubai's Jebel Ali port, the world's 10th-largest container port and a redistribution hub for more than a dozen countries in the region." sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/strait-...
"The Houthis have not resumed attacks, but the presumed risk factor has led to a sudden reversal in transit plans.
“Any hope of Suez transits resuming anytime soon are, of course, completely shattered,” said [Turloch] Mooney [S&P Global Market Intelligence]." www.lloydslist.com/LL1156497/Mi...
Excellent article in Lloyds List on impact of Middle East / Gulf conflict on container shipping: "Another major consequence of the Middle East war: is it has abruptly changed carrier plans to gradually return to the Red Sea ..."
St. Kitts & Nevis / IMF A4 mission: "Under a moderately frontloaded active policy scenario encompassing expenditure rationalization (4.4 pp of GDP) & tax revenue mobilization (2.7 pp of GDP), public debt would stabilize at the regional 60% ceiling by 2031." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
"As conflict over Iran grew closer in recent weeks, some investors exited these trades, with foreign holdings of Egyptian debt falling by $2bn to $30bn according to Citigroup."
US Treasury / new sanctions against Rwanda Defence Force and named senior officials in it for involvement in the Eastern DRC conflict. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
A key point about Egypt: "Precautionary closures of Israel’s Leviathan and Karish gasfields add further pressure to global gas and LNG markets. These fields are key suppliers to Egypt, which imported close to 10 bcm from Israel last year."
