Studying geoeconomic competition and capital reallocation in global financial markets, using the foreign exchange funding market as the empirical setting, from Yu An and Amy W. Huber www.nber.org/papers/w34908
Decomposing welfare measures of policy reforms into parts attributable to redistribution and parts due to efficiency, from Anmol Bhandari, David Evans, Mikhail Golosov, and Thomas J. Sargent www.nber.org/papers/w34907
Equity financing allows firms to engage in riskier types of export activities, from Robin Kaiji Gong, Yao Amber Li, Stephen Teng Sun, and Shang-Jin Wei www.nber.org/papers/w34906
Negative oil prices in April of 2020 were triggered by long positions from retail traders whose demand distorted the price signal, forcing output cuts due to benchmark-based pricing, from Erik P. Gilje, @robready.bsky.social, Nikolai Roussanov, and Jérôme P. Taillard www.nber.org/papers/w34905
Featured in the latest Digest: Impact of Minimum Pay Rules on Gig Delivery Drivers
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Economic data can be successfully forecast 10 tor 25 years ahead but not 50 years ahead, from Kurt G. Lunsford and Kenneth D. West www.nber.org/papers/w34904
Stock market bubbles in the US market are rare. Industry-sector booms predict a higher probability of both large subsequent gains and losses, from William N. Goetzmann, Otto Manninen, and James Tyler www.nber.org/papers/w34903
Soil carbon sequestration can be optimally incentivized through spatially targeted, risk-adjusted carbon payments that reflect soil type and uncertainty, from Khyati Malik www.nber.org/papers/w34902
Open call for papers, Innovations in Measuring Employment. Conference to be held in Washington, DC on September 17–18, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on April 15, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...
US buyers didn't pay the full 2018–19 US tariff burden. Adjusting for lost scale economies drops pass-through to 60 percent with foreign exporters absorbing over half the cost, from Sharat Ganapati and Colin J. Hottman www.nber.org/papers/w34901
Open call for papers, The Rate of Return to R&D Investments. Conference to be held in Washington, DC on October 2, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on June 17, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...
Featured in the latest Bulletin on Health: Immunotherapy Increases the Cost of Cancer Care but Reduces Mortality
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Vietnam conscription led minority veterans toward more racial interconnection—in marriage, neighborhood, politics, and economic standing—without similarly affecting white veterans, from Zachary Bleemer www.nber.org/papers/w34900
Matched corporate securities are used to estimate the stock-bond premium in the London stock market over the period 1870–1929, from William N. Goetzmann and K. Geert Rouwenhorst www.nber.org/papers/w34899
Developing a framework that yields a lower bound on valid significance thresholds for tests of the factor zoo. With this method, the total number of tests need not be specified, from Campbell R. Harvey, Alessio Sancetta, and Yuqian Zhao www.nber.org/papers/w34898
Constructing price indexes for laptop computers in Japan using many alternative measurement frameworks including hedonic regressions, from W. Erwin Diewert and Chihiro Shimizu www.nber.org/papers/w34897
Despite the attention they receive, macroeconomic shocks are second order. They don't materially alter the long-run position of the economy or its agents, from Michail Anthropelos, Jasmina Hasanhodzic, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff www.nber.org/papers/w34896
Using US Census microdata from 1992–2021 finds that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases robot adoption in manufacturing by roughly 8 percent, from Erik Brynjolfsson, J. Frank Li, Javier Miranda, Robert Seamans, and Andrew J. Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34895
After the pandemic, monetary and fiscal stimulus boosted labor market inclusion but fueled inflation. An alternative policy mix could have raised welfare for most households, from Felipe Alves and Giovanni L. Violante www.nber.org/papers/w34894
Chinese local industrial policy subsidies were responsible for 40 to 50 percent of the fall in prices, and the growth in innovation and output since 2006 in the Chinese solar industry, from Banares-Sanchez, Burgess, László, Simpson, Van Reenen, and Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34893
Featured in the latest Digest: Job Growth in Counties Targeted by the CHIPS and Science Act
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Interest rate hikes raise fragility unevenly via the interaction of bond losses and uninsured deposit funding. This paper models bank heterogeneity and run risk across banks, from Juliane Begenau, Vadim Elenev, and Tim Landvoigt www.nber.org/papers/w34892
A new "consumption wedges" approach uses transaction data and surveyed expectations to measure individual-level distortions from optimal consumption-savings behavior, from Sasha Indarte, Raymond Kluender, Ulrike Malmendier, and Michael Stepner www.nber.org/papers/w34891
Studying how decisions made by organ procurement organizations (OPOs)—non-profits that coordinate organ recovery from deceased donors—affect the availability of organs for transplant in the US, from Hammaad Adam, Nikhil Agarwal, and Marzyeh Ghassemi www.nber.org/papers/w34890
Open call for papers, Production Function Estimation and Its Applications to Industries. Conference to be held in Cambridge, MA on December 5, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on September 14, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...
Optimal ratings are threshold partitions; under linear supply or Cournot, thresholds solve a k-means problem using only the quality distribution, enabling simple, data-light design, from Hugo Hopenhayn and Maryam Saeedi www.nber.org/papers/w34889
Changing dollar share in official foreign exchange reserves is not just about preferences for US assets, from Linda S. Goldberg and Oliver Hannaoui www.nber.org/papers/w34888
Livestock price insurance closely replicates a put option; this model shows why producers might capture premium subsidies by offsetting coverage with market options, from Michael K. Adjemian and A. Ford Ramsey www.nber.org/papers/w34887
Violence Prevention and Monitoring Centers in Türkiye reduced intimate partner homicides and physical intimate partner violence by 20 percent, mainly by improving access to coordinated protection services, from Asik, Erten, Tekin, Tumen, and Ulucan www.nber.org/papers/w34886
Showing that the age composition of the population can shape the speed at which businesses adopt new technologies, using evidence from mobile payments in India, from Nicolas Crouzet, Pulak Ghosh, Apoorv Gupta, and Filippo Mezzanotti www.nber.org/papers/w34885
