Max Barry

St Kilda v Collingwood @ M.C.G. 28 models give Collingwood a 53-90% chance of victory over St Kilda at the M.C.G. on Sunday with an average tipped margin of 14 points, but Winnable and Punters give St Kilda a 53% chance with a margin of 2 points.

Collingwood by 12 with a 64% win chance. St Kilda v Collingwood @ M.C.G. #AFLSaintsPies https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=38498

@matterofstats.bsky.social Matter of Stats is offline! This is an automated message. https://squiggle.au/status/

Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs @ Gabba 28 models give Brisbane Lions a 51-78% chance of victory over Western Bulldogs at Gabba on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 13 points, but HBin and What Snoo Thinks give Western Bulldogs a 55-58% chance with a margin of 5 points.

Brisbane Lions by 14 with a 66% win chance. Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs @ Gabba #AFLLionsDogs https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=38497

Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn @ Sydney Showground 23 models give Hawthorn a 50-64% chance of victory over Greater Western Sydney at Sydney Showground on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 6 points, but 7 models give Greater Western Sydney a 51-58% chance with a margin of 2 points.

Hawthorn by 6 with a 57% win chance. Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn @ Sydney Showground #AFLGiantsHawks https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=38496

Gold Coast v Geelong @ Carrara 21 models give Geelong a 50-73% chance of victory over Gold Coast at Carrara on Friday with an average tipped margin of 6 points, but 9 models give Gold Coast a 51-68% chance with a margin of 4 points.

Geelong by 2 with a 52% win chance. Gold Coast v Geelong @ Carrara #AFLSunsCats https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=38495

Sydney v Carlton @ S.C.G. 28 models give Sydney a 52-78% chance of victory over Carlton at the S.C.G. on Thursday with an average tipped margin of 13 points, but Squiggle gives Carlton a 50% chance with a margin of 0 points.

Sydney by 15 with a 66% win chance. Sydney v Carlton @ S.C.G. #AFLSwansBlues https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=38494

Squiggle AFL Prediction & Analysis

Opening Round by the models. https://squiggle.com.au

Rate My Ladder - Squiggle How accurate was your ladder prediction? Drag teams to where you tipped them to finish, then check your score.

I need somewhere to link (see right-most column at squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladd...) so people can look it up for themselves.

2026's hottest new model is HBin from Hamish Binnie, now on the Squiggle platform. That's 21 models good to go, plus a handful either putting on the final touches or having crashed and burned in the off-season (not yet sure which). www.hbin.io

Hi John! Yep, link me to some place where you have published your ladder prediction and I'll add it.

uh oh

Also I discovered that 9 out of 11 finals can be won by just 2 teams.

And Sydney win the flag from 10th - now possible in the 2026 Squiggle Ladder Predictor. predictor.squiggle.com.au

Geelong v Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. 22 models give Geelong a 51-76% chance of victory over Brisbane Lions at the M.C.G. on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 13 points, but Hyperion gives Brisbane Lions a 50% chance with a margin of 1 point.

Geelong by 12 with a 63% win chance. Geelong v Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. #AFLCatsLions https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37323

Squiggle AFL Prediction & Analysis

Grand Final by the models. https://squiggle.com.au

Wowee

This is outrageous @squiggle.au

Collingwood v Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. 16 models give Collingwood a 52-71% chance of victory over Brisbane Lions at the M.C.G. on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 8 points, but 9 models give Brisbane Lions a 51-55% chance with a margin of 2 points.

Collingwood by 4 with a 55% win chance. Collingwood v Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. #AFLPiesLions https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37863

Geelong v Hawthorn @ M.C.G. 22 models give Geelong a 50-71% chance of victory over Hawthorn at the M.C.G. on Friday with an average tipped margin of 7 points, but The Footycast and AFL Scorigami give Hawthorn a 57-58% chance with a margin of 5 points.

Geelong by 10 with a 62% win chance. Geelong v Hawthorn @ M.C.G. #AFLCatsHawks https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37862

Squiggle AFL Prediction & Analysis

Preliminary Finals by the models. https://squiggle.com.au

Don't mind me, just dropping my Squiggle Football: Modern Eras DLC store.steampowered.com/app/3168980/...

Squiggle Football - Patch 25.3.x: State of the Nation - Steam News What's New (v25.2.10 -> v25.3.6): Australian state selector in "Create New Team" Oppo team place names reflect the appropriate Australian state in State & Bush leagues Add 3 x new 2025 debutants Fix D...

Squiggle Football v25.3.x - latest updates store.steampowered.com/news/app/154...

Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast @ Gabba 22 models give Brisbane Lions a 50-80% chance of victory over Gold Coast at Gabba on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 7 points, but The Cruncher and Informed Stats give Gold Coast a 53-72% chance with a margin of 13 points.

Brisbane Lions by 8 with a 59% win chance. Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast @ Gabba #AFLLionsSuns https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37320

Adelaide v Hawthorn @ Adelaide Oval 21 models give Adelaide a 50-64% chance of victory over Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval on Friday with an average tipped margin of 5 points, but Glicko Ratings and Hyperion give Hawthorn a 51-55% chance with a margin of 2 points.

Adelaide by 3 with a 54% win chance. Adelaide v Hawthorn @ Adelaide Oval #AFLCrowsHawks https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37319

Squiggle AFL Prediction & Analysis

Semi-Finals by the models. https://squiggle.com.au

Fremantle v Gold Coast @ Perth Stadium 15 models give Fremantle a 51-68% chance of victory over Gold Coast at Perth Stadium on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 5 points, but 10 models give Gold Coast a 51-66% chance with a margin of 5 points.

Fremantle by 1 with a 52% win chance. Fremantle v Gold Coast @ Perth Stadium #AFLFreoSuns https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37316

Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn @ Sydney Showground 16 models give Greater Western Sydney a 50-63% chance of victory over Hawthorn at Sydney Showground on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 3 points, but 9 models give Hawthorn a 51-60% chance with a margin of 2 points.

Greater Western Sydney by 1 with a 51% win chance. Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn @ Sydney Showground #AFLGiantsHawks https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37315

Geelong v Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. 22 models give Geelong a 55-72% chance of victory over Brisbane Lions at the M.C.G. on Friday with an average tipped margin of 13 points, but 3 models give Brisbane Lions a 50-52% chance with a margin of 0 points.

Geelong by 12 with a 63% win chance. Geelong v Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. #AFLCatsLions https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37318

Adelaide v Collingwood @ Adelaide Oval 23 models give Adelaide a 53-73% chance of victory over Collingwood at Adelaide Oval on Thursday with an average tipped margin of 11 points, but Hyperion gives Collingwood a 53% chance with a margin of 3 points.

Adelaide by 12 with a 63% win chance. Adelaide v Collingwood @ Adelaide Oval #AFLCrowsPies https://squiggle.com.au/game/?gid=37317

Squiggle AFL Prediction & Analysis

Finals Week 1 by the models. https://squiggle.com.au