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David Johnson

@hockeyanalysis.com

Hockey Analyst and unofficial Keeper of the Cap at http://TheStanleyCap.com. Formerly of the Calgary Flames. Also http://Puckalytics.com http://HockeyAnalysis.com

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Latest posts by David Johnson @hockeyanalysis.com

The Stanley Cap | Historical Draft Pick Value Simulator

I made some upgrades to the draft pick simulator. You can now specify up to 16 picks which should cover most/all teams drafts. I also added some additional pick ranges to choose (i.e. 6-10 overall). Finally, you can now run the simulation 1, 5 or 10 times.

www.thestanleycap.com/tools/draft_...

08.03.2026 21:54 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I have implemented the ability run the draft simulation 1, 5 or 10 times.

08.03.2026 22:08 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

So if I understand this right, Iran has surrendered and is no longer a threat to its neighbours but they are going to continue bombing Iran because...why not??

Maybe he's holding out for Iran to give him a gold watch and a fake Middle East peace prize.

07.03.2026 14:46 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
The Stanley Cap | NHL Salary Cap, Contracts, News, Statistics, Analytics and more. Your source for everything NHL - Salary Cap, Contracts, Transactions, News and Analysis, Statistics, Analytics, Depth charts, Rosters and Active Lineups.

Thank-you to everyone that visited TheStanleyCap.com today. It was almost certainly our busiest day for traffic ever.

If you enjoy what we are trying to build please consider supporting us with a subscription or just help spread the word.

06.03.2026 22:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 12 ๐Ÿ” 6 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Did your team trade for some draft picks today? Were you wondering the quality of players you reasonably expect from those draft picks down the road? Use this draft pick simulator to see the types of players that were taken with those picks in the past.
www.thestanleycap.com/tools/draft_...

06.03.2026 22:54 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

With Kadri going to Colorado I think the biggest losers today are the Minnesota Wild. They really needed a center to keep pace with Colorado and Dallas and McCarron just doesn't cut it.

06.03.2026 21:08 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Acquiring Strome makes a bit more sense now that the Kadri to Colorado news has come out. Flames need someone to play (and some salary to get to the cap floor).

06.03.2026 21:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Hurricanes analytics department must have come up with a useful Grit/60 metric.

06.03.2026 19:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 11 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Fixed. Thanks.

06.03.2026 19:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Yeah, simulate x times is something I want to do but it will have to wait until after the trade deadline. I literally thought of this yesterday morning and released it last night.

06.03.2026 19:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Obviously few good players in there, Carlson, Markstrom, Miller, etc. but a lot of meh too. Yes, you have a shot at a Carlson but you are more likely to get a Kapanen or Frederic or Del Zotto. Useful NHLers but not core players. You could also end up with guys that hardly play at all.

06.03.2026 19:01 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image

How much is a late first round pick worth? Using The Stanley Cap's new draft simulator which randomly picks former draft picks within a specified ranged. Here are 10 random players drafted between 20 and 32.
www.thestanleycap.com/tools/draft_...

06.03.2026 19:01 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

TSN is not doing one the least interesting things they could do to fill time, a fake draft lottery. Is this the best time filler they could come up with?

06.03.2026 17:40 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Ideally we find a stable level and avoid the seesawing back and forth. That is the least efficient way to manage government spending.

06.03.2026 17:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Maybe not explosive, but it is at a level not seen in 30 years and back in the early 1990's Canada debt to GDP ratio was what was exploding. I don't think Canada wants to get back to that level which necessitated dramatic cuts to services/healthcare spending in the Chretien years.

06.03.2026 17:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The TSN panel is talking about how Calgary wants to be good for when their new building opens for 2027-28 season but not one of them mentioned that there is almost zero chance any of the draft picks they have acquired this season will be ready for the 2027-28 season.

06.03.2026 16:47 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What I hope for today is one trade every 15 to 20 minutes starting at 10am.

What will happen today is about 3 trades between now and 2:30ET followed by 20 trades in the final half hour.

06.03.2026 14:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I was curious how likely it would be that the three second round picks acquired in the Weegar trade would amount to something useful so I created a simulator randomly selecting players from past drafts based on criteria you specify. This should give you some idea of the draft picks value.

06.03.2026 06:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Next time I got Michael McLeod and Shawn Lalond so you win some and you lose some.

06.03.2026 06:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I just ran the simulator for Washington's draft pick return for Carlson using a first round pick between 12 and 18 and a 3rd round pick. I got Tom Wilson and Anthony Cirelli. Caps fans should be ecstatic if something like that happens.

06.03.2026 06:36 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I was curious how likely it would be that the three second round picks acquired in the Weegar trade would amount to something useful so I created a simulator randomly selecting players from past drafts based on criteria you specify. This should give you some idea of the draft picks value.

06.03.2026 06:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Update:

Weegar: Three 2nds, Castagna and take Maatta's contract

McCarron, Dowd, Myers: Three 2nds, 3rd, 4th, Vikman

Yes, Weegar hasn't had a great year but he's a right shot D coming off back to back 52 and 47 point seasons, can play on PP and PK and eat up big minutes. Utah got a steal here.

05.03.2026 17:04 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Turkey borders Iran. Turkey is a NATO member (an ally), NATO had to shoot down an Iranian missile heading into Turkish air space.
I'd be shocked if NATO allies hadn't already been discussing this possible scenario of defending Turkey if the war expands. This seems to be what Carney is referencing.

05.03.2026 05:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Lets compare the trade returns:

Weegar: Three 2nds, a B prospect (former 3rd round pick) and taking on Maatta's contract.

Michael McCarron, Cole Smith and Tyler Myers combined: Two 2nds, a 3rd and a 4th.

It's unfortunate that Weegar isn't 6'5" I suppose.

05.03.2026 04:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

When evaluating the Weegar trade from Calgary's perspective you have to account for the fact Maatta with has negative value. He's been a part time player in Utah. Put him on waivers nobody takes him. It is not unreasonable to think one of those 2nds as compensation for taking Maatta's contract.

05.03.2026 03:42 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

That's not a good environment for player development, surrounding them with vets hanging on for a paycheck. Hasn't helped Chicago at all. Flames might be a playoff team in 2032.

05.03.2026 02:56 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Veterans won't play in Calgary on a bad team without being massively over paid. See Foligno in Chicago but worse.

05.03.2026 02:36 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The problem is they are going to be rushing prospects into NHL roles they aren't ready for which hurts prospect development and makes the rebuild longer.

05.03.2026 01:55 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I don't love this trade for Calgary. There was no need to move him now. You do it if you get a blow me away offer but I don't think this is that. It's not terrible but there is no reason to do this trade now. May as well blow the whole team up and hope to be good in 5-7 years.

05.03.2026 01:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

I wouldn't bet on that happening.

04.03.2026 23:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0