UNSW Climate Change Research Centre

A recent study by Huazhen,Andréa,Christine,and Ghyslaine classifies CMIP6 large ensembles into weaker, unchanged, and stronger ENSO futures. El Niño rainfall varies by pathway, but Dec–May La Niña rainfall increases across all scenarios. Congrats!
Full read: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Full paper: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Most latest-version satellite products indicate increasing ocean-mean precipitation and provide stronger support for the “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” hypothesis, while reanalysis datasets generally suggest decreasing trends and show weaker consistency with sea surface temperature changes. ++

Paper 🚨

Congratulations to Sibyl Cheng, Lisa V. Alexander, Steven Sherwood, and Joaquin E. Blanco. This new paper shows the substantial differences in both climatology and trends of ocean rainfall using multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets from the FROGS database (2001–2020). ++

Details ⬇️

Beyond the well-known “too frequent, too light” bias, the analysis reveals previously undocumented features, particularly in snowfall representation.

Full paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

📢 🌍 New paper!

CCRC researchers Joaquín E. Blanco, Lisa V. Alexander and Steven Siems, have published a new study, which provides a comprehensive daily-scale evaluation (2000–2014) of gridded precipitation over the Southern Ocean, comparing satellite products, reanalyses, and CMIP6 models. ++ ⬇️

Land surface model underperformance tied to specific meteorological conditions Abstract. The exchange of carbon, water, and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere plays a vital role in shaping global change and extreme events. Yet our understanding of the theory of th...

Full Paper: : bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/...

Land surface model underperformance tied to specific meteorological conditions Abstract. The exchange of carbon, water, and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere plays a vital role in shaping global change and extreme events. Yet our understanding of the theory of th...

🚨!

This new study led by @jdcp93.bsky.social shows how machine-learning models can benchmark complex process-based land-surface models. LSMs perform weakest during coinciding conditional extremes, yet ML models still learn successfully despite sparse training data in this climate space.

Link ⬇️

It covers 25+ years of advances in atmospheric circulation, stratosphere-troposphere coupling, regional climates (Antarctica, South America, Africa, Australia), oceans, extremes, climate change & modelling.
Dedicated to pioneer Harry van Loon. A benchmark reference for students & researchers!

Meteorology and Climate of the Southern Hemisphere | Cambridge University Press & Assessment

Exciting news 🎉 Our CCRC scientist Andréa Taschetto and team have just released “Meteorology and Climate of the Southern Hemisphere” book, an updated edition of David Karoly’s 1998 monograph, published by Cambridge University Press. +
Available at lnkd.in/g4SFsM9k

www.cambridge.org/au/universit...

Study shows droughts lasting longer across Australia UNSW research shows droughts are lasting longer in Australia, particularly in regions where most people live.

helping predict real-world impacts on crops & water security. 🌾
Read here: www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/new...

Study shows droughts lasting longer across Australia UNSW research shows droughts are lasting longer in Australia, particularly in regions where most people live.

If you're interested in drought and AI, our PhD student Matt Grant and researcher Dr Sanaa Hobeichi have been featured in this UNSW Newsroom! It shows Australian droughts are lasting longer (especially SE & SW), with AI ++

www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/new...

#Drought #ClimateChange #AI #UNSWResearch

Evaluating Combined Passive Retrofits for a High-Rise Social Housing Under a Future Climate Condition Global warming and urban heat pose severe risks to residents of often outdated, non-HVAC social housing in Australia, particularly vulnerable low-income households experiencing energy poverty. These r...

🚨Paper

Congrats to Mohammad, @neginnazarian.bsky.social, and Gloria on their new paper. They assessed passive thermal retrofits via energy modelling & operative temp analysis for extreme indoor conditions in Sydney high-rise social housing under future warming.
Read paper: doi.org/10.1007/978-...

The correlation between (a, c, e) rainfall and (b, d, f) surface temperature simulated by CCAM and the NINO3.4 from CTRL for (a, b) CTRL, (c, d) (noENSO) and (e, f) noIOD runs. Stipples indicate grids where correlations are significant at the 1% level based on Student’s t-test. A 1% significance level is chosen because the large number of events in the 10-member ensemble results in very small critical values for higher significance levels.

🚨New paper

This new study by Ying Lung Liu, Lisa Alexander and
@jasonpevans.bsky.social disentangles ENSO and IOD influences on Australian spring climate, showing ENSO’s dominant role and underscoring the need for large ensembles for robust attribution.
Full Paper: doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...

Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia Nature Reviews Earth & Environment - El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) profoundly affects Australian weather, climate, ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. This Review presents...

This collaboration with experts on El Niño/La Niña impacts in Australia, from different institutions @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social, Climate Extremes, @ccrc.bsky.social , Monash University, Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, NESP Climate Systems Hub, among others. Article: rdcu.be/eS2nj lnkd.in/eKVkafYw

Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia Nature Reviews Earth & Environment - El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) profoundly affects Australian weather, climate, ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. This Review presents...

🚨New paper
CCRC scientist Andrea Taschetto and team have published a comprehensive review of ENSO impacts in Australia in @natrevearthenviron.nature.com. This is an important and long-overdue synthesis, building on foundational studies such as McBride & Nicholls (1983). ++

Proud of our CCRC and @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social scientist team in Paris this week at the IPCC AR7 Lead Author meeting: @jasonpevans.bsky.social @melissatraveler.bsky.social, @sarahinscience.bsky.social, @juliearblaster.bsky.social, @nicolamaher.bsky.social & Jo Brown! Big things coming for AR7

Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has shifted towards its positive phase owing to ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This Review discusses the dynamics, trends and projections...

🚨CCRC researchers @drjucker.bsky.social, Laurie Menviel and Valentina Guzmán joined other leading and emerging climate scientists across Australia to produce a new review of the Southern Annular Mode and its impacts. The study just published in @natrevearthenviron.nature.com. doi.org/10.1038/s430...

Congrats to Michael Eabry et al. on their paper showing how synoptically varying sub-monthly episodes, SAM phase transition (cf. Zonal Wave 3 activity) and ocean/ice-cover preconditioning were important for the 2016 Antarctic sea-ice decline.
Read more: doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...

PhD training needs a reboot in an AI world As machines get better at data analysis and writing tasks, doctoral training must evolve to make the most of artificial-intelligence outputs.

Congratulations to Alex Sen Gupta for his Nature opinion piece. A sharp look at how future AI could reshape PhD research, when a student collaborates with a simulated advanced AI to write a paper, raising big questions about authorship and academia.
Full read: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Many congratulations to Thomas Schmaltz, chosen as one of 18 outstanding Australians to receive the prestigious John Monash Scholarship! This award will support his PhD in Glaciology abroad, exploring how our planet’s frozen frontiers are changing.
So proud of you, Tom!

Historical trends of seasonal droughts in Australia Abstract. Australia frequently experiences severe and widespread droughts, causing impacts on food security, the economy, and human health. Despite this, recent research to comprehensively understand ...

Congratulations to Matt Grant and the CCRC team! Recent work shows that while Australian droughts have declined since the early 1900s,some regions have risen recently.Machine Learning reveals multiple drivers, not just rainfall, that shape these trends.
Full Read: hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/...

CCRC’s Lisa and Loan found that regional precipitation datasets are systematically drier than global ones, a puzzling bias that remains after testing multiple explanations. This raises new questions about how rainfall is represented across scales.
Read more: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Excited to welcome Sam Dahl to the CCRC!
He joins us from the University of Arizona, where he completed his BSc and MSc in Atmospheric Science. Sam’s PhD, supervised by Lisa Alexander, will explore sub-hourly extreme rainfall prediction using convective-permitting models over Australia.

🎥 On-camera media training session at UNSW yesterday with our early career researchers @fabiobdias.bsky.social and Zhi Li! Great questions, plenty of enthusiasm, and lots of behind-the-scenes action 📸

@ccrc.bsky.social

Breaking the ice: why study Antarctica? From unique wildlife to resilient microbes, world-changing climate dynamics to untapped biotechnological potential – four UNSW scientists outline what makes Antarctica a laboratory like no other.

Christina Schmidt @christinaocean.bsky.social from CCRC is featured in the UNSW story "Breaking the ice: why study Antarctica?" On the Denman Marine Voyage she analyzed oxygen concentration and saw jade-green icebergs, penguins, and sea ice.
Read more: news.unsw.edu.au/en/breaking-...

Huge congratulations to Xinyue Zhang on submitting her PhD thesis! 🎉
Her research shows how dryland vegetation responds to climate change, with most areas continuing to green while some face desertification. This highlights the crucial role of sustainable land management.
We are so proud!

The role of household electrification in reducing system-wide energy costs in Australia’s National Electricity Market Household electrification has been proposed as a strategy to reshape residential energy consumption to better align with the variability of a 100 % re…

Congrats to our recent PhD graduate Elona Rey-Costa on her final thesis paper, just published in Energy Reports. The study shows household electrification in Australia’s NEM could lower system costs by up to 17% and better integrate renewables.
Read more: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Marine heatwaves are more than skin-deep. A new paper "Lifting the Lid on Marine Heatwaves", led by CCRC’s @neilmalan.bsky.social & Alex Sen Gupta, sets a framework for subsurface heatwaves and how extremes at depth impact ecosystems in a changing climate. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Air temperatures over Antarctica have soared 35ºC above average. What does this unusual event mean for Australia? The stratospheric polar vortex high above Antarctica has rapidly heated up. These sudden bursts of heat can bring rapid weather changes in Australia

CCRC Senior Research Fellow @drjucker.bsky.social explains in this Conversation article what is happening above Antarctica right now, and how it might impact us: theconversation.com/air-temperat...
@unswbees.bsky.social