#QJE Nov 2025, #7, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
12.10.2025 00:30
👍 0
🔁 1
💬 1
📌 0
#QJE Nov 2025, #7, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
A study of expectations formation when the underlying process has thick tails, from @timdesilva.me, Eugene Larsen-Hallock, Adam Rej, and David Thesmar https://www.nber.org/papers/w33808
This is awesome!
New paper on belief formation in a world with “fat” tails!
Check out my recent NBER presentation here: www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH...
Ungated link: www.timdesilva.me/files/papers...
Just released: Results from the largest-ever experiment on social media and emotional health by SIEPR's Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow.
Here's what they found: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Curious about belief formation in the presence of fat tails?
Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv
Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers...
Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...
12 more days to apply to our summer school in structural estimation! It's a hands-on course in which you learn how to do SMM and then work on a problem set with your classmates. Open to PhD students in finance, accounting, econ. And faculty.
New paper: "Rushing to Judgement and the Banking Crisis of 2023"
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Great paper! I find the theoretical framework to be a really elegant way of seeing a lot of results in the literature in one place
"It’s vital that we preserve our reputation for rigor. We’ll fail more often than we succeed. But when we are successful, we will have played a critical role in advancing good economic policy. For me, that’s something worth striving for," writes SIEPR Director @nealemahoney.bsky.social. Full piece ↘️
Delighted to receive the Journal of Finance DFA First Prize for "Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors"
We show that behavioral econ findings not limited to the lab, they show up amongst the most sophisticated market participants.
A fantastic resource for those interested in the cutting edge of policy-relevant economics research. 👇
Love this paper! Great example of how a null result can be super informative from both a positive and normative standpoint.
this abstract is INSANE
This slowly dawned on me during my PhD - it was by being at seminars or conferences where I could see the true debate behind a paper and what people thought its contribution and flaws were, not by reading the published version.
Science would be better served if everyone could see these debates
My economist husband spent the last couple days, jubilantly stating “Saturday the holidays begin! Vacation starts! No more work!” This morning he woke up excited: “no work today!!” He is now making slides for an intro trade class that doesn’t exist “for fun! This isn’t work!!”
Trump fixed the economy without even taking office
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Great paper! Quick question (I might have missed it in the draft). Does Michael study a model with aggregate risk as well and what things look like when we feed in E data directly (or use his belief model) compared to doing Krussell-Smith?
Love this paper, helps me think through a lot of things these days in the real economy and financial markets!
I like the point here that the shift from manufacturing to services is important for understanding the election!
This is what I told myself when I did poorly in humanities classes :)
With the holiday season upon us, SIEPR reflects on those who make our community special. We are thrilled to share our new batch of Why Econ profiles, which showcase researchers and students and why they have chosen to examine the world and make an impact through the prism of economics. To start...
Such a great conference, sad I can’t make it this year!
Can you guess what happens when a Walmart Supercenter enters a community?
...
...
...
◾EITC receipts in the community increase
◾ workers' incomes go down
as a direct result.
"Walmart Supercenters gradually accumulate and exercise monopsony power, with negative consequences for workers."
I’m always struck that the people repeating the bogus “60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck” stat never follow it up with any proposals to increase the savings rate.
www.slowboring.com/p/this-econo...
INCENTIVES TO COMPLY WITH THE MINIMUM WAGE IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ANNA STANSBURY There is substantial evidence of minimum wage non-compliance in the United States and the United Kingdom. In this article, the author compiles new, comprehensive data on the costs that mini- mum wage violators incur when non-compliance is detected. In both countries, the costs violators face are often little more than the money they saved by underpaying. To have an incentive to comply under existing penalty regimes, typical US firms would thus have to expect a 47% to 83% probability of detection by the Department of Labor (DOL), or a 25% probability of a successful Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) suit. In the United Kingdom, typical firms would have to expect a 44% to 56% probability of detection. Actual probabilities of detection are substantially lower than this for many firms and would likely remain so even with realistic increases in enforcement capacity. Improved enforcement alone is thus insuffi- cient: Expected penalties must also substantially increase to ensure that most firms have an incentive to comply.
Basically, US and UK firms that violate minimum wage laws face little probability of getting caught and pay only small fines when they do.
Via @annastansbury.bsky.social in @ilrreview.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
What to make of this? To me, the take-away is we need a much better understanding how the information environment maps onto people's mental representation of the decision problem.
Attention/memory has a huge role to play, as they will interact with context to determine this representation.
fin.
Great thread. It’s possible that noise in cognitive representation of probabilities (or proportions) are driving some of these results. So to the extent that there’s more noise when probabilities aren’t explicitly presented in real world, perhaps you’d get broader scope of PT-like behavior
