Gavan Reilly

194 people are on board the government’s charter flight which has left Oman for Dublin, via a stopover in Cairo. @virginmedianews.bsky.social

There is objectively a good case for it, but does anyone really want to float the idea of re-running 2010s referendums?

“MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!).”

Full slide deck available at www.neds.ie/data/preside...

And finally, sadly, a growing belief (or even acceptance) in mainstream conspiracy theories.

About a third of the electorate believe/don't reject/are undecided on things like great replacement, a secret global ruling cabal, or deliberate dissemination of viruses 🫠

By the end, almost a third of people who would back Fine Gael in a general election still weren't prepared to vote for that party's Áras candidate

(Interesting that Labour voters were seemingly split nearly 50-50 between Connolly and Humphreys, illustrative of that party's dilemma with the public)

While many Connolly voters said their stance was influenced by how she performed in debates, only two-in-seven voters said debates changed their vote – and 60% of votes were, seemingly, locked down before the campaign got going at all

By comparison, voters' views of Catherine Connolly were broadly more stable, and didn't vary much, across the three stages of sampling (start of campaign, final week of campaign, and after the election concluded)

The graphic shows that attitudes to Heather Humphreys' candidacy became distinctly more negative as the campaign went on.

57% of respondents said Humphreys engaged in negative campaigning, while only 16% said the same of Connolly.

Having a browse of the Electoral Commission's post-#aras25 voter study. These jump out for me – and suggest it's not so much the case that Catherine Connolly won, but rather than the conduct of Heather Humphreys' campaign actively lost the race:

(The three 'waves' are start, end and after campaign)

The Government has missed its target for new-build social housing in 2025 – the construction target was 10,000, but Minister James Browne has told Labour's Conor Sheehan in the Dáil this morning that the total construction figure was 9,089. @virginmedianews.bsky.social

The usual petrol pump I visit on the route into town had, last week, been charging 169.9c for a litre of both unleaded and diesel. This morning the price on the display is 179.9c for unleaded and 189.9c for diesel…

Oil and fuel retailers are being called into the Enterprise Minister’s office on Friday to explain why prices at the pump have jumped so high ahead of any supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Revealed at FG’s weekly PP meeting this evening. @virginmedianews.bsky.social

namely, the regime-change war in the Middle East

Don’t think enough attention has been paid, imho, to the President and Secretary of State being publicly at odds for the justification of a regime-change war in the Middle East

The Stormontification of Texas continues

TDs today recounted examples of one 1,000 litre fill of home heating oil rising by €150 over the weekend, and another said a pensioner had been a quote for 300 litres (a modest fill) had gone up by €75 between Friday and Monday

This after the Taoiseach admitted in the Dáil that “some price gouging” has been seen, even though Irish oil supplies come largely from the UK and Norway where there is no supply disruption, and higher market costs cannot have fed through so quickly

🚨 The Competition watchdog has been ordered to review the retail energy market, after some home heating and motor fuel suppliers seemed to rise prices long before any oil or gas shortage would kick in. Peter Burke’s instruction to CCPC is to identify whether all levers are being used to manage costs

Taoiseach taking a kicking in Dáil for not directly saying the killing of Iran’s supreme leader broke international law. Has merely said the actions of U.S. and Israel were not in compliance with any UN mandate - while also bemoaning that it’s “impossible” to get a UN mandate for anything right now

@gardai lads c’mon

Good to start with a clean slate, y’know

The Cabinet will today approve legislation to dissolve NAMA, the State’s crash-era ‘bad bank’, and to conclude the special liquidation of IBRC (Anglo and Irish Nationwide). Both will have remnant operations transferred to the NTMA, closing a major chapter for Ireland. @virginmedianews.bsky.social

Important note from DFA today: citizens in the Gulf and Middle East, who registered with the Department and provided contact details, will not be proactively contacted with new travel advice - they’ll only be actively contacted if the Dept has plans specific to them. Travel advice will be on website

Yep, that’s why they were hosting the meeting

A minister of EU affairs ministers from the member states - due to take place in Cyprus tomorrow - has been cancelled. Iranian drones have struck an RAF base on the island after the UK confirmed it was allowing its bases to be used by the U.S. as part of its campaign. @virginmedianews.bsky.social

Excellent analysis by @gavreilly.com on whether voter registrations could put Gerry Hutch into the Dáil: gavreilly.substack.com/p/could-a-vo...

I plotted Hutch’s vote share in Dublin Central against every other GE2024 candidate using these tally data. ⤵️

You could try and split the boxes pro rata according to registered numbers from each ED but it creates a false level of precision that doesn’t seem especially useful

Can a voter registration drive help Gerry Hutch become a TD?

Numbers crunched: gavreilly.substack.com/p/could-a-vo...

Support for Social Democrats hits record high, but minimal damage for coalition parties after SNA debacle Support for the Social Democrats has reached a record high, the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll shows, with the popularity of party leader Holly Cairns also rising.

POLL: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks
(Feb 27, MoE 2.8%)

Sinn Féin 22 (+2 in four weeks)
Fianna Fáil 18
Fine Gael 17 (-1)
Social Democrats 11 (+1)
Aontú 6
Ind Ireland 5 (-1)
Labour 4
Greens 4 (+1)
PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1)
Inds/others 11