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Beau

@runningsignal.com

Backyard economist. Macro/micro coverage of the economy, trade, and technology. Opinions here don't get etched in stone.

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Latest posts by Beau @runningsignal.com

The administration is closer to Chinese leadership than they are separate.

07.03.2026 11:51 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

At least we’ll have all the documentation for war crimes that we need. Surely he’ll be dead before facing accountability but everyone who followed the buffoon will be given the full weight of justice.

07.03.2026 11:36 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Spot rates are going to blow out next week. This is insane.

07.03.2026 04:42 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Damn

06.03.2026 14:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.

www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

06.03.2026 14:52 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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So this is what we’re working with right now. In 2022 the Russian invasion sent fuel surcharges ballistic. They made both linehaul - base rate plus fuel go up or the all-in. But then weak conditions pushed the LH down fast. Once fuel dropped, double whammy.

Now the floor is sturdier so more ⬆️

06.03.2026 13:48 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The corrective action is not to furiously reprice new freight but to do so on incumbent business. This is your first profitability lever. You’re unable to do so, however, until everyone else starts doing it.

06.03.2026 13:32 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I see it like contract pricing in freight. We all knew rates would go up. The degree is all different but when you were bidding in 2025 it was with others still trying to be competitive so you couldn’t really cover for any scenario you have planned for until it’s underway.

06.03.2026 13:28 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Commodities know something serious is going on. Equities have not yet realized it. Not that they don’t see it, they just can’t move on it until others do so. Commodities force your hand.

06.03.2026 13:26 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

There we go

06.03.2026 13:25 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I get a lot of questions these days about data from BLS and other agencies. Some of this is about fears of political interference. Some of it is about the reliability of the data, especially in light of recent big revisions. In a story today, I tried to tackle both.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/b...

06.03.2026 13:17 πŸ‘ 125 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 5

Anthropic’s retail sales team.

06.03.2026 02:12 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

We’re going to allow Russian oil into the market to dampen the impact on oil prices from the war we started with their supplier of drone technology and oil to our suppliers of manufacturing and retail goods that come here.

06.03.2026 01:55 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Lol, lmao

06.03.2026 01:12 πŸ‘ 153 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 1
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HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN TIBET
Hundreds of heat records are being smashed allover Asia from India,Pakistan,Afghanistan,South East Asia,Nepal,Bhutan and Tibet.

Today 19.1C at Nyalam smashed its March heat record Next days hundreds of records will be pulverized.

05.03.2026 19:18 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3

He’s really doing the bit

06.03.2026 00:44 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I’ve worked my tail off this last year to build out pricing infrastructure for my company and now I get to lead Pricing and Market Intelligence.

More motivated by our results. We’ve been able to steer our geographic portfolio, contract mix, and margins through tools & comm channels.

06.03.2026 00:42 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Tucker Carlson's ALP Starts National Manhunt After Grand Theft of Millions of Dollars of Nicotine Pouches A shipment of ALP Supply Co.'s highly anticipated limited-edition nicotine pouch line, ALP Drifters, was stolen in transit less than 24 hours after the product was publicly announced.

Oh no what are the buzzy boys to do

finance.yahoo.com/news/tucker-...

05.03.2026 21:33 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Northern California’s first condor egg in 100 years reported in redwood tree

Northern California’s first condor egg in 100 years reported in redwood tree

Who COULDN’T use some good news? β€˜ Scientists with the Yurok Tribe say that two of dozens of condors released to the wild in Humboldt County since 2022, to reestablish the endangered birds, have paired up, built a nest in a redwood tree and appear to be tending to an egg.”

#californiacondor

02.03.2026 23:05 πŸ‘ 1070 πŸ” 492 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 22

She is 100% going after Miller from here.

05.03.2026 18:09 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

google gemini users / claude users

05.03.2026 13:48 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Claims:

1/ Jobless claims low, again. 213K in the week ended 2/28 - below 2025 & 2023 levels; near 2024 levels.

No sign of rising layoffs here, indeed they seem to have declined. (Though I do worry this is a *little* too optimistic... let's see what January JOLTS looks like.)

05.03.2026 13:45 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Manufacturing was just getting started too :(

05.03.2026 13:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I feel like over the next few months headline CPI will be spiky because of energy, you've got the increase in memory prices flowing through consumer electronics, real consumption growth might be negative because of the hit from gas prices, and then housing remains stuck.

05.03.2026 13:40 πŸ‘ 69 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 4
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That’s right.

05.03.2026 04:04 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
β€œThe secretary of Miami-Dade County’s Republican Party started a group chat primarily for conservative students last fall β€” and within three weeks it was filled with racist slurs, someone wrote dozens of ways of violently killing Black people and the chat was renamed after what one member described as β€œNazi heaven.” In WhatsApp conversations leaked to the Miami Herald, participants used variations of the n-word more than 400 times, regularly described women as β€œwhores,” used slurs to talk about Jewish and gay people and mused about Hitler’s politics.”

β€œThe secretary of Miami-Dade County’s Republican Party started a group chat primarily for conservative students last fall β€” and within three weeks it was filled with racist slurs, someone wrote dozens of ways of violently killing Black people and the chat was renamed after what one member described as β€œNazi heaven.” In WhatsApp conversations leaked to the Miami Herald, participants used variations of the n-word more than 400 times, regularly described women as β€œwhores,” used slurs to talk about Jewish and gay people and mused about Hitler’s politics.”

β€œIn WhatsApp conversations leaked to the Miami Herald, participants used variations of the n-word more than 400 times, regularly described women as β€œwhores,” used slurs to talk about Jewish and gay people and mused about Hitler’s politics.”

05.03.2026 03:01 πŸ‘ 340 πŸ” 126 πŸ’¬ 11 πŸ“Œ 29

I won’t pretend to speak for them so I’ll make an ai sock puppet that does instead

05.03.2026 03:55 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

So Atmus was part of Cummins and is a supplier. Handles filtration. Mostly intermediate goods that go into heavy duty trucks and the like.

Which then pushes up the cost floor for trucks and helped cause this rate snap. Which you’ve also seen in prices paid and LMI stats.

Incredible gambit.

05.03.2026 03:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Aside from being funny it was just a tax refund, this seals shut the idea that it was revenue from overseas.

05.03.2026 03:27 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I find the 'how many weeks will the war go?' questions odd.

The war is going to continue until Iran no longer has the capacity to block shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz or chooses to stop doing so.

Given the economic impact of strait closure, it really cannot end before that.

05.03.2026 01:03 πŸ‘ 534 πŸ” 81 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 7