🚨 BREAKING — Rep. Kevin Kiley of California announces he will not run for re-election as a Republican and will instead file as an independent.
CA-06 was Harris +9 in 2024.
🚨 BREAKING — Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) officially withdraws his re-election bid, missing the 5pm PT filing deadline. He is the 32nd House Republican not to seek another term.
The open seat improves Democrats’ chances of flipping CA-48. The newly drawn district voted Harris +3.
NEW — Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-CA) campaign website has swapped its “for Congress” logo for his PAC’s. Another Republican also filed for CA-48, fueling retirement rumors.
Issa would be the 32nd House Republican not to seek re-election. His newly drawn district was Harris +3.
Democrats appear poised to flip 9 seats from 🔴 to 🔵 via new gerrymanders in California and Virginia.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has called an April redistricting special session and could flip 3 seats from 🔵 to 🔴 with the safest option (23-5).
Website link: il9.org/odds
With 10 days until the Illinois primary, check out VoteHub student fellow @bayespr.bsky.social’s in-depth forecast and breakdown of the IL-09 Democratic primary.
His model currently has Daniel Biss favored, though Kat Abughazaleh still has a credible path to victory.
See more IL-09 fundraising data here:
il9.org/fundraising
In the Illinois U.S. House 9 Democratic primary, progressive Kat Abughazaleh has built a massive grassroots fundraising network.
💰 7× more donors than any other candidate
🧑🤝🧑 71% of funding from small-dollar donors
NEWS — Newton County, TX tells me they are aware of a tabulation error showing Talarico with zero votes, Crockett with 43, and Hassan with 269. A recount is required to correct the results but cannot occur this week without a district judge’s order. They expect an update Monday.
🚨 BREAKING — Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) will not seek re-election after admitting to an affair with an aide who later died by suicide.
OK-05 shifted 8 points to the left in the past two presidential cycles, although Republicans would still be favorites to retain the seat: Trump won it by 18.3 points in 2024.
Republican Rep. Stephanie Bice may also run for the Senate seat per Punchbowl News.
Her congressional district, which includes Oklahoma City and its suburbs, has a Cook PVI of R+9.
NEWS — Rep. Kevin Hern is likely to run for the Senate seat vacated by Markwayne Mullin per Punchbowl News
Hern's congressional district (OK-01, which includes Tulsa and its suburbs) has a Cook PVI of R+11, though Trump won by 21.5 points there in 2024.
🚨 BREAKING UPDATE — Trump fires Kristi Noem and announces he is nominating Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma as the new DHS Secretary.
🚨 NEW — Trump is preparing to fire DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, per The Wall Street Journal.
UPDATE: Paxton reverses course and says he would consider dropping out of the race if Senate leadership scraps the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act.
UPDATE: Paxton reverses course and says he would consider dropping out of the race if Senate leadership scraps the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act.
Kalshi currently views an Independent victory as far more likely, giving Seth Bodnar a 27% chance to win the race, compared with just 2% for a Democrat.
If Neill remains in the race and splits the anti-Republican vote, neither candidate would have a path to victory.
NEWS — Montana Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Reilly Neill says she will remain in the race following Sen. Steve Daines’ withdrawal and the entry of Independent candidate and University of Montana President Seth Bodnar.
Montana voted for Trump by 20 points in 2024.
NEWS — Trump and Paxton appear headed for a collision course: Paxton says he won’t drop out under any circumstances, while Trump says “that’s bad for him to say” and warns it may lead him to endorse Cornyn.
Source: POLITICO
Donald Trump’s approval rating has ticked up over the past two weeks, improving from a net -15.3 to -11.8.
About 43% now approve of his job performance.
Daines withdrew from the race just minutes before Montana’s 5 p.m. filing deadline.
U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme filed for the Republican primary shortly beforehand, potentially in a coordinated move with Daines to avoid a competitive GOP primary.
NEW — Sen. Steve Daines will not seek re-election in 2026, the Montana Secretary of State’s Office confirms.
Daines becomes the 6th Republican U.S. senator to retire this cycle.
Although the election was officially nonpartisan on the ballot, all three candidates had clear partisan affiliations.
Lost amid the excitement in Texas last night:
2026 Arkansas State Supreme Court Election
🔴 Nicholas Bronni - 217,178 (54.8%)
🔵 John Adams - 179,449 (45.2%)
Arkansas was Trump +31 in 2024, so this is a 22 point overperformance for Democrats.
NEWS — The Virginia Supreme Court has stayed the Tazewell injunction, allowing the redistricting referendum to move forward per Brandon Jarvis of Virginia Scope.
If the referendum passes on April 21, Democrats would be likely to flip four seats from 🔴 to 🔵 in 2026.
BREAKING — Donald Trump is expected to endorse Sen. John Cornyn, according to The Atlantic. The move reportedly comes at the urging of Senate GOP Leader John Thune, per POLITICO.
VoteHub projects James Talarico to win the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
VoteHub projects Ken Paxton and John Cornyn to advance to a runoff in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
