George Hay

As the world enters 2026, Breakingviews columnists map out how powerful forces of macroeconomic stimulus, exuberance over artificial intelligence and corporate dealmaking could interact with tensions between great powers, financial gravity and political dysfunction in the coming 12 months.

The biggest M&A deal ever. A crypto bailout. Just some of the things Breakingviews columnists predict for 2026 in a new e-book, ‘Far Side of the Boom’.

Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu
Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz

I understand why they didn't say pre-budget: "The main reason we need to raise tax is to build headroom against the fiscal rules - we want to put the markets to bed and move on."

As that sounds like an arbitrary use of people's taxes - plugging a conceptual gap.

This OBR/Treasury row on who said what, when... is very muddy and complicated.

A few points:
• idea that the OBR said on Oct 31 Reeves was already meeting her target by £4b isn't really the full picture - fcast excluded the welfare u-turns since March (some media have pointed that out, others not)

For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...

The Big View News Podcast · Updated weekly · Reuters Breakingviews columnists tap their best contacts to explore the biggest issues driving business and markets today. Every Tuesday, Global Editor Peter Thal Larse...

So @dsquareddigest.bsky.social is a former banks analyst who has written books on fraud and on systemic failures. That makes him the ideal person to come on The Big View and talk about stablecoins. Listen here:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

EU’s best US riposte is a focused digital strike As China hits back with tariffs to Washington’s levies, Europe is mulling its response. One target is the $77 bln US services surplus. Hiking Big Tech fines would hit the EU’s credibility, but a bloc-...

Von der Leyen shrewdly taking Breakingviews’ advice:
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen [FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation

VDL ruled out revisiting the EU’s “untouchable” regulations on digital content and market power, which Trump officials see as taxes on Big Tech firms, and Europe's VAT rules

“These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions”

Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic

In an interview w @roulak.bsky.social, @andybounds.bsky.social & I, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said the EU wants a “completely balanced” deal.

“[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”

EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen [FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation

💥 EU could levy new taxes on Big Tech companies' digital advertising revenues if negotiations with Trump over trade tariffs fail, Ursula von der Leyen tells @financialtimes.com

“It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back"

on.ft.com/429u02T

Breakingviews - US auto tariffs zoom past economic speed limit Donald Trump is threatening to drive the U.S. auto industry so hard that the wheels fall off. In a Wednesday press conference, the president announced25% tariffs on cars and parts, endangering a border-hopping global supply chain. The touted tolls could be enough to total carmakers’ collective profit. Autos are strategically valuable, but this goes too far, too fast.

The Trump administration "is effectively demanding an overnight overhaul of an immensely expensive and complicated supply chain, threatening pure destruction."
www.reuters.com/breakingview...

D-day group chat

Via @gusbaratta.bsky.social

Me whenever people talk about "too low" UK interest rates and QE in the 2010s

Breakingviews - How the World Bank can defend itself from Trump Up until two years ago, Ajay Banga had spent most of his career in the private sector – as a banker at Citigroup and latterly as the CEO of Mastercard . Now the World Bank president finds himself having to defend one of the linchpins of the liberal international order against President Donald Trump, who last month ordered a government review that could see the United States quit as the 81-year-old institution’s top shareholder. Yet Banga has arguments and hard facts on his side, which could help him appeal to U.S. self-interest.

Deep dive with @breakingviews.reuters.com colleague Afiq Fitri Alias, looking at whether Trump’s review should find in favour of consciously uncoupling the US from the World Bank. Short answer: no. Long answer ⬇️

Great to hear @bbcradio4.bsky.social Today programme follow up on our @theguardian.com investigation into the TV crisis this morning.

Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it!

Michael.savage@theguardian.com

Reuters snaps of Lutnick comments on Fox Business

There’s a real possibility that Trump doesn’t impose any permanent tariffs but trade still collapses because all the importers assume that he has.

…stay for Breakingviews’ video takedown of the previous (somewhat more rubbish) one, back in 2021
www.reuters.com/video/watch/...

Abrdn finds its missing vowels but not value New CEO Jason Windsor is renaming the $4.2 bln fund group Aberdeen and pledging to boost profit. Both steps are welcome but come amidst tricky markets and growing competition from index funds. Small w...

Come for the crunchy financial analysis of Aberdeen’s latest rebrand/strategy, by Neil Unmack…
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

The X bit here is presumably not woke, though

www.reuters.com/breakingview...

Breakingviews - Thames fix is acid test for UK, and privatisation Thames Water is in purgatory. Britain’s biggest water utility recently averted collapse via an expensive 3 billion pound loan from existing creditors, but it still needs to raise equity to cut debt, restore access to credit markets and fund a 20 billion pound investment programme. If interested parties like U.S. buyout group KKR can rescue it and make a decent return, it would boost the UK’s flagging appeal as a destination for foreign direct investment and reinvigorate the global case for privatising public assets. That’s a big if, though.

www.reuters.com/breakingview...

Altice’s Patrick Drahi limps on from debt disaster The tycoon struck a deal to slash his French telco’s 21 bln euro debt pile. While impairing bondholders, the agreement leaves Drahi in control and with some value, reversing the capital structure. The...

www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

A triptych of stellar pieces by the redoubtable EMEA team at @breakingviews.reuters.com this week. First @liamproud.bsky.social on Patrick Drahi's unusual debt restructuring, then Neil Unmack on the return Thames Water investors can expect, and finally @jen-johnson.bsky.social on a WPP buyout.

UK could lure US talent with a ‘non-Don’ regime Britain has upset expats by ditching ‘non-dom’ rules that allowed them to swerve tax on offshore wealth. It could replace them by luring healthcare experts and scientists alienated by President Donald...

A modest proposal from @georgehay.bsky.social: that the UK relax visa requirements for medical, scientific and technology researchers whose work has been disrupted by the Trump administration. Call it the “non-Don” regime.
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pored over a once-classified map of vast deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals during an interview with Reuters on Friday, part of a push to appeal to Donald Trump's penchant for a deal.

Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security - www.reuters.com/world/zelens...

AI giants’ less-is-more logic bears three caveats Breakthroughs in building cheaper silicon smarts threaten tech firms enjoying a spending boom. Microsoft’s CEO offered comfort in a 160-year-old observation that efficiency gains stoked coal demand. F...

From me - on the limits of Jevons Paradox: www.breakingviews.com/features/ai-...

In no particular order, some thoughts on the fiscal stuff:

1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.

This is pure gold, Greek edition.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread.

You can easily see the most stressed areas in the map. And note that values of real estate exposed to climate risk has started to fall.

Insurance risks will be a proxy carbon tax Governments have failed to introduce a global levy to bring down fossil fuel emissions. But climate change is increasingly forcing up the cost of living. With insurance becoming more expensive and sca...

The regressive carbon tax 😬

Probably the biggest disconnect in markets:
-houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans
-the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage
-you can't get a mortgage without insurance
- insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.