Andrew Facini

it's fascinating how FDD guys have gotten everything they wanted but it tastes like ash in the mouth

📌 Save the Date:
The Iran War: Implications for Food, Water, and Energy Security

Join CCS experts for a timely discussion and audience Q&A on the food, water, & energy implications of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Speaker details to come.

📅 Tue. Mar 10
➡️ RSVP: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

This has nothing to do with the specific content here, but Polymarket adopting the language of news, here with BREAKING, and with Texas election results earlier this week, is BAD. Polymarket is not and will never be a news org or break news. It's a betting app. It's Draft Kings for sociopaths.

From Schelling's retrospective on Arms and Influence: "I had to coin a term. ‘‘Deterrence’’ was well understood. To ‘‘deter’’ was, as one dictionary said, to ‘‘prevent or discourage from acting by means of fear, doubt, or the like,’’ and in the words of another, ‘‘to turn aside or discourage through fear; hence, to prevent from action by fear of consequences,’’ from the Latin to ‘‘frighten from.’’ Deterrence was in popular usage not just in military strategy but also in criminal law. It was, complementary to ‘‘containment,’’ the basis of our American policy toward the Soviet bloc. But deterrence is passive; it posits a response to something unacceptable but is quiescent in the absence of provocation. It is something like ‘‘defense’’ in contrast to ‘‘offense.’’ We have a Department of Defense, no longer a War Department, ‘‘defense’’ being the peaceable side of military action."

Schelling in 2008 :(

Markwayne Mullin, set to run Homeland Security >>

Set up Okta Verify on an additional device. 100745 Views (Last 3 Months) • Updated December 16, 2025 • Published These instructions are for HarvardKey users who are enrolled in Okta Verify for identity verification on one device and want to set up another device. When setting up Okta Verify on a second device, you will need access to the device on which you already have Okta Verify set up. If you have not yet set up Okta Verify on any device, please follow the instructions here: ...

you know your shiny new 2fa rollout has been a smashing success for the community when the "I'm locked out" help page hits 100 thousand views

This needs to be a main story everywhere for this entire election cycle. It’s such a raw display of Republican contempt for democracy, for any semblance of accountability

A printout of Javad Zarif's tweet from April 2, 2015: "The solutions are good for all, as they stand. There is no need to spin using 'fact sheets' so early on."

Google photos reminding me of when Javad Zarif subtweeted my JCPOA fact sheet.

Simpler times

thank you to Sharon for brining to my attention that since at least 2012, Marco Rubio has confused Chiang Kai-shek for something he imagined:

www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/m...

You weren’t supposed to take all the money we gave you in a rush to rebuild shipbuilding and munitions stockpiles and then turn around and nuke the navy’s MRO and spend down all the stockpiles

Hegseth: We are the Department of WAR, and WE are WARFIGHTERS who do WAR?

Journalist: So are we at war with Iran?

Hegseth:

Wonder if we'll get reentry photos from Kwajalein

Dude's like a cartoon character

A screenshot of the Polymarket website showing a prediction market titled "Nuclear weapon detonation by...?" under the Geopolitics and Ukraine categories. The market displays three betting options with their current probabilities and "Buy Yes" or "Buy No" prices: "March 31" at 5%, "June 30" at 12%, and "Before 2027" at 22%. The total trading volume shown is over $843,000.

Polymarket has created a betting market on the use of nuclear weapons. Everyone involved in this should be put in prison for life.

Which is to say, 2018 NPR isn't all that different from what Biden's 2022 NPR rolled over for in the end, so sticking with 2018 NPR would mean not much change from the status quo.

That said, it's worth remembering the people behind the admin have been asking to go way way further.

None of this is all that surprising except for what the hell has Bridge even been doing these last 12 months if it wasn't being locked in a room working on the NPR

reading "Bombing to Win" on the subway and shaking my head to show everyone I'm against bombing to win

Anyway the updated inventory would then be something like

🏗️ MMIII (W78 / W87-1) -> Sentinel (W87-1)
🏗️ ALCM (W80-1) -> LRSO (W80-4)
🏗️ SLCM-N (W80-5)
✅ D5 (W76-1 / 2, W88 alt370 -> W93)
✅ B61-12
✅ B61-13
🤔 B83-1?

Also I really thought I was done thinking about B83 but to my knowledge decommissioning hasn't completed yet so maybe we'll see those monsters in the stockpile again.

A reminder that the NPR is a (still useful, imo) declaratory policy doc and not connected to law or procurement, as we saw when Congress overrode the Biden decision to push through SLCM-N. Similarly B61-13 wasn't mentioned in the 2022 NPR but got spun up quickly.

From 2022 when Biden's NPR was released - comparing selected hardware changes between Obama-Trump 1-Biden.

one-way attack drones are RUDIMENTARY CRUISE MISSILES

shout it from the hilltops

They really did get a lot of mileage out of their own manufactured crisis

How Trump Decided to Go to War

Damning NYT story on the decision-making leading up to this war: "The president said he understood the risks of an attack, but he conveyed to Mr. Carlson that he had no choice but to join a strike that Israel would launch." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/u...

NEW: Satellite imagery from @vantortech.bsky.social shows tunnel entrances at the Natanz nuclear site were bombed between 01 March and 02 March.

(Analysis via isis-online.org)

Fire reported at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh following a blast, two sources tell Reuters.

Great question and I don't know! I'd sooner believe that the missiles are packed already for tube-economy and that there is more flexibility in deploying ASMP, but with the pledge to reduce transparency, I'm not sure that later we'll know any more than we already do

Locals in Iraq recovered a near-intact US LUCAS drone, an American copy of the Iranian Shahed-136, confirmed used by Task Force Scorpion Strike during US attacks on Iran under Operation Epic Fury. #Iran