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Robert Pauls

@robertpauls

Political economy of China's socioeconomic transformation, monetary policy, industrial policy. Suzhou, China. www.robertpauls.net

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01.09.2023
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Latest posts by Robert Pauls @robertpauls

Thank you!

06.03.2026 01:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thanks!

04.03.2026 01:14 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

3rd, cyclical deviations of profit rates by sector (i.e., EPS) are the normal result of competition if A Smith is to be believed. So nothing going on here that can't be explained by market forces. Absent data that shows evidence of the causal mechanism they suggest, the argument isn't convincing.

02.03.2026 14:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Secondly, I don't understand why they trail the EPS data by 12 months. Yes, crude needs to be processed, but changes in crude spot market prices show up at the pump right away. The prices pass through the pipeline quicker than the crude.

02.03.2026 14:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I agree with you that not all competition is about prices or fought out through prices, but the N&B's data does not plausibly show that something other than market forces are at work here. For one thing, energy conflicts in fig 3 do not appear to regularly predict ROE deviations in favor of oil.

02.03.2026 14:04 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Also looks like half of the "energy conflicts" predict differential profits to fall according to their own chart ๐Ÿคญ

02.03.2026 01:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

So Exxon starts wars because Nvidia's profit share is higher than theirs? To me all that paper shows is that conflicts in oil-producing regions cause oil prices to rise, which in turn causes the total mass of profit to be distributed more favorably towards oil companies. Econ101.

02.03.2026 01:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Merzโ€˜ Lob fรผr China geht in der Volksrepublik viral โ€žWir sind einfach nicht mehr leistungsfรคhig genugโ€œ, sagt der Kanzler nach seiner Rรผckkehr aus China der CDU in Hessen. Das greifen die Staatsmedien in einem Land gern auf, das selbst Dutzende Millione...

It's Chinese citizens who know best that "we need to work more and harder" is exactly the wrong conclusion for Merz to draw from his visit.
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...

01.03.2026 12:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It was more meant as a joke than a serious comment. Xiaomi probably suffers from similar pressures as most consumer electronics development. As all hardware is becoming a platform for software, competition pushes you to push product first, fix issues later.

01.03.2026 05:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

ๅทฎไธๅคš-ing

01.03.2026 04:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Reformist LibCom

27.02.2026 14:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thought it was brilliant.

26.02.2026 02:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

"Wรผrgegriff" und "Abhรคngigkeit" schieben das eigene Versagen China in die Schuhe. Das Verhรคltnis Deutschlands zu China ist frei gewรคhlt, und kann auch von deutscher Seite wieder umgestaltet werden. Es erfordert allerdings eine Wirtschaftspolitik, die bei vielen Unternehmen auf Widerstand trรคfe.

23.02.2026 01:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Some would call that procrastination. Iโ€™d call that process.

16.02.2026 01:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Bรผrokratieabbau in Bayern: Das โ€žEinfach-mal-machen-Gesetzโ€œ der CSU In bayerischen Regionen soll probeweise das Landesrecht ausgesetzt werden. โ€žEinfach-mal-machen-Gesetzโ€œ, nennt das die CSU.

Learning from China's Special Zones? Bavaria is introducing "model regions" where state law may be temporarily suspended to trial bureaucratic reforms with the aim to facilitate broader adaptation. ็”ฑ็‚นๅˆฐ้ขใ€‚

13.02.2026 14:24 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Die gegenwรคrtigen Debatten zur Industrie- und Verteidigungspolitik in Europa kรถnnten noch einiges vom Ostasiatischen Developmental State lernen. Der Staat muss sich das Kapital gefรผgig machen, wenn das alles klappen soll.

12.02.2026 01:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thanks, didnโ€™t know these, Iโ€™ll check them out!

09.02.2026 11:48 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thanks!

09.02.2026 02:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Itโ€™s been fantastic! Have you come across anything like it that youโ€™d recommend? Canโ€™t bring myself to sit through other shows.

09.02.2026 02:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image

Peak exploitation

09.02.2026 00:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Diese Abwehrgefechte sind eine Sache, aber wirtschaftspolitisch ist die SPD schwach aufgestellt. Es klafft eine Riesenlรผcke zwischen Unternehmensstrategien und volkswirtschaftlichem Gesamtinteresse. Klassisches sozialdemokratisches Thema, aber da wird nicht rangegangen.

08.02.2026 01:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
ChatGPT is bullshit - Ethics and Information Technology Recently, there has been considerable interest in large language models: machine learning systems which produce human-like text and dialogue. Applications of these systems have been plagued by persist...

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

05.02.2026 01:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

stop using AI to do your research. it hallucinates too often. if you want an answer to something, post something arrogant on the appropriate subreddit. something like: "this item performs 10% better than everything else. only idiots deny this." this will bait nerds into doing your research for you.

26.01.2026 07:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 17821 ๐Ÿ” 3599 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 146 ๐Ÿ“Œ 170
this is what 2 years of chatgpt does to your brain
this is what 2 years of chatgpt does to your brain YouTube video by Angela Collier

Angela tells it like it is
@acollierastro.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pqF...

25.01.2026 03:01 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Just departed there yesterday. Enjoy!

25.01.2026 01:32 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I'm just here to remind you to cancel your WSJ subscription.

08.01.2026 13:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I do wonder to what extent predation really is baked into the growth model, e.g. US oil companies donโ€™t really seem to be interested in Venezuelan oil. There doesnโ€™t seem to be an economic rationale nor systemic distributional consequences arising from such adventurism.

07.01.2026 09:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I had them. Can recommend.

07.01.2026 02:41 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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newleftreview.org/issues/ii156...

05.01.2026 11:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 13 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
A Chinese official exposed his boss. Now in Texas, heโ€™s hunted by Beijing - with help from US tech Retired Chinese official Li Chuanliang fled to the U.S. seeking asylum, fearing persecution from the Chinese government.

1/Beijing is using an increasingly powerful tool to control and monitor its own officials: Surveillance technology, much of it originating in the U.S., an @apnews.com investigation has found.
Buckle up for a twisting ride through China's corruption crackdown...
apnews.com/article/whis...

15.12.2025 04:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 52 ๐Ÿ” 25 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3