Prof. Eliot Jacobson's Avatar

Prof. Eliot Jacobson

@climatecasino.net

Retired professor of mathematics and computer science, casino consultant, author of 4 books: 3 on casino games & 1 poetry book. Now I volunteer, walk a lot & feed local critters. Climate blog: climatecasino.net Casino blog: advancedadvantageplay.com

24,528
Followers
949
Following
3,771
Posts
27.07.2023
Joined
Posts Following

Latest posts by Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net

Melting sea-ice does not cause sea level rise. What are you saying?

07.03.2026 17:05 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Climate of Hope: New Strategies for... book by Christopher Flavin Buy a cheap copy of Climate of Hope: New Strategies for... book by Christopher Flavin. Free Shipping on all orders over $15.

Your 'doom quote' for today:

"Scientists believe that the coming period of rapid climate change is likely to be erratic, disruptive, and unpredictable. Local weather patterns may shift suddenly and dangerously." (June, 1996)

www.thriftbooks.com/w/climate-of...

07.03.2026 14:40 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Impending doom: Climate change is no longer a distant forecast Climate change is an irreversible reality, and sitting idle will only worsen the inevitable disruptions to daily life.

Your 'moment of doom' for Mar. 7, 2026 ~ We have cookies.

"At this point, it is hard to see another ending other than the Earth being eternally doomed. With the rate of the world heating and no change in reaction, it seems that fate is inevitable."

www.gonzagabulletin.com/opinion/impe...

07.03.2026 14:35 πŸ‘ 46 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

In other news, the latest NOAA data is showing that new methane continues to trend downward.

At the current rate of decline, the Glasgow Compact goal of reducing anthropogenic methane 30% by 2030 will be attained somewhere around 2037 to 2040.

07.03.2026 14:25 πŸ‘ 39 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Passing this along for Roger...

07.03.2026 03:45 πŸ‘ 68 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2

I should add that this calculation does not take clouds into consideration.

With clouds (approx. 70% cloud cover on average over equatorial regions) we're looking at 120-140 km each direction N & S of the equator. This is about 150-175 miles across from N to S.

06.03.2026 20:46 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Um...

06.03.2026 20:44 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

One last graphic showing Arctic sea-ice volume, running second behind 2017, this one using the "monthly average" volume posted by PIOMAS.

The accelerating Arctic sea-ice catastrophe is bad enough, no need to catastrophize.

Data: psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp...

06.03.2026 19:27 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

I just did a more rigorous computation for increasing Earth's albedo (reflectivity) using 92% efficient mirrors.

To get back to year 2000 albedo levels, we only need a band about 84 km wide (42 km North & South of the equator) of mirrors circling the earth.

The more you know!

06.03.2026 19:08 πŸ‘ 78 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 2
Evisceration Plague by Cannibal Corpse,cover #deathmetal #cannibalcorpse #metalhead #theendofourtime
Evisceration Plague by Cannibal Corpse,cover #deathmetal #cannibalcorpse #metalhead #theendofourtime YouTube video by Brugmansia

Calling out my Death Metal fan followers.

If you could take a moment to view/like/share my doomer friend's latest YouTube video where she and a guitarist cover Evisceration Plague by Cannibal Corpse. Let's get her 1000 views!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bkg...

06.03.2026 18:55 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1
Runaway Climate: The Point of No Return

Your bonus 'doom quote' for today:

"The 'runaway' climate threat now is the danger that today’s accelerated global warming will push Earth past a 'point of no return,' with irreversible consequences for today’s young people and their descendants."

mailchi.mp/caa/runaway-...

06.03.2026 18:49 πŸ‘ 53 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Breaking News!
Code Meh!

Antarctic sea-ice extent has now passed its yearly minimum and is growing again. The 2026 minimum was 2,720,000 kmΒ² on February 23rd, which was the 23rd lowest minimum on record, dating back to 1979.

No Antarctic BOE this year!

06.03.2026 17:38 πŸ‘ 37 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Saving Us: A Climate Scientist's Case... book by Katharine Hayhoe Buy a cheap copy of Saving Us: A Climate Scientist's Case... book by Katharine Hayhoe. United Nations Champion of the Earth, climate scientist, and evangelical Christian Katharine Hayhoe changes the d...

Your 'hope porn' quote for today:

"We just need to be people who want this planet to continue to be a safe, hospitable home for us all. And to share this message effectively, we need to bring our hearts to the table, not just our heads."

www.thriftbooks.com/w/saving-us-...

06.03.2026 15:14 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

A Blue Ocean Event later this year? Make your fake bets here!

x.com/EliotJacobso...

06.03.2026 15:08 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Here's daily Arctic sea-ice volume, currently 2nd lowest (2017 was lower).

Among doomers, there are the NTHE doomers, and they are yet again predicting a blue ocean event later this year. The Climate Casino will offer 15-to-1 against in a wager coming soon on Twitter.

Stay tuned!

06.03.2026 14:59 πŸ‘ 35 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Since 3-year averages tend to be somewhere between climate and weather, here it is, the 3-year running mean for Arctic sea-ice volume.

Although volume is not currently at an all time low, the record was reached on Oct. 30, 2019, it is trending in that direction.

Stay tuned!

06.03.2026 14:51 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Breaking News!
Code Yikes!

Average Arctic sea-ice thickness is at a *record low* for the date, if we are looking at either the 1-year or 3-year running average.

I'll post the volume graphics tomorrow, which are *not* at record lows.

The Climate 8-Ball says: No BOE for you!

05.03.2026 23:24 πŸ‘ 72 πŸ” 22 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

A day of bounty! Monthly Arctic sea-ice data was just posted by PIOMAS.

Here is average Arctic ice thickness, through Feb. 28. Thickness is currently second lowest for the date, with only 2017 seeing lower average thickness than 2026.

Data:
psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp...

05.03.2026 23:12 πŸ‘ 39 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Breaking News!
Code UFB!!!

February CO2 data from Mauna Loa was just posted by NOAA, and the 3-year running average for the mean rate of atmospheric CO2 growth hit yet another new record high, now up to 8.15 ppm per 3 years.

And that dip in the early 1990's was Mt. Pinatubo.

05.03.2026 18:02 πŸ‘ 89 πŸ” 38 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
Climate change pushes tropical insects to their heat limit Up to half of the insects in the Amazon region could be exposed to life-threatening heat levels due to progressive, anthropogenic global warming. This is shown by a recent study by the universities of...

Your 'moment of doom' for Mar. 5, 2026 ~ RIP tropical insects.

"Since insects fulfill central functions in ecosystems as pollinators, decomposers, and predators, there is a threat of far-reaching consequences for entire ecosystems."

phys.org/news/2026-03...

05.03.2026 14:57 πŸ‘ 86 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural... book by Elizabeth Kolbert Buy a cheap copy of The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural... book by Elizabeth Kolbert. WINNER OF THE PULITZER PRIZEONE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW'S 10 BEST BOOKS OF THE YEARA NEW YORK TIMES BESTS...

Your 'doom quote' for today:

"If warming were to reach what was at that point considered a likely maximumβ€”a figure that now looks too lowβ€”by the middle of this century, between 38 and 52 percent of the species would be fated to disappear."

www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-sixth-...

05.03.2026 14:46 πŸ‘ 46 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3
Preview
We've Drastically Underestimated Sea Levels, Putting Millions at Risk, Study Warns An analysis of coastal impact assessments revealed that the majority are not based on direct sea-level and land-elevation measurementsβ€”that's troubling.

Your 'moment of doom' for Mar. 4, 2026 ~ Expecting worse than expected.

"the authors determined that 3.28 feet (1 meter) of global sea level rise could inundate 37% more land area than previously thought, impacting 77 million to 132 million people ..."

gizmodo.com/more-than-90...

04.03.2026 17:19 πŸ‘ 102 πŸ” 42 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 3
The Doors - The End
The Doors - The End YouTube video by 215Days

Your 'doom quote' for today:

Kill, kill, kill, kill, kill, kill
This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScS...

04.03.2026 14:33 πŸ‘ 73 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
World Adaptation Forum 2026 - Facing Polycrisis Conference on Our Future Clearly and Without Illusions - 23-24. April 2026 / Budapest

This looks great. The 'World Adaptation Forum.'

I'll be going "virtually" -- anyone else going?

worldadaptationforum.org

04.03.2026 14:01 πŸ‘ 56 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Normalcy bias in action. Overall, folks think we are slightly less f&%ked today than we were a year ago...

03.03.2026 16:49 πŸ‘ 77 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 12 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

For those on tenterhooks, yes, Arctic sea-ice extent is still below the record low maximum extent, set just last year.

Latest JAXA data
Mar. 2, 2026: 13,496,796 kmΒ²

Record low maximum
Mar. 21, 2025: 13,783,274 kmΒ²

03.03.2026 15:03 πŸ‘ 82 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Climate Change Could Cut Grasslands in Half by 2100 Climate change is shrinking grasslands, threatening livestock, food security, and millions of livelihoods worldwide.

Your 'moment of doom' for Mar. 3, 2026 ~ Meating the moment.

"Grasslands represent the world’s largest agricultural production system, making their decrease a critical concern for meat and dairy supplies..."

impakter.com/climate-chan...

03.03.2026 14:53 πŸ‘ 48 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
Bad Moon Rising - Creedence Clearwater Revival (HQ - 5.1 Studio )
Bad Moon Rising - Creedence Clearwater Revival (HQ - 5.1 Studio ) YouTube video by DRIVERATOMIC

Your 'doom quote' for today:

"I see the bad moon a-risin'
I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin'
I see bad times today"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6iR...

03.03.2026 14:47 πŸ‘ 59 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Why we are f&%ked, reason #49.

A huge part of the Western U.S. saw not just a warm winter, but the hottest winter in 131 years of record keeping.

But it was the much smaller region of non-record cold in the East that made all the headlines.

Summer is coming.

02.03.2026 23:02 πŸ‘ 127 πŸ” 44 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 5
Preview
El Nino may return in 2026 and make planet even hotter The warming El NiΓ±o weather phenomenon could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights.

Your 'moment of doom' for Mar. 2, 2026 ~ a greater sorrow.

"there is a risk of 2026 being the warmest year on record even without El NiΓ±o, due to the global warming trend"

phys.org/news/2026-03...

02.03.2026 14:46 πŸ‘ 113 πŸ” 41 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3