The British press, especially Daily Mail etc are best to be avoided. I had something like that (on a smaller scale) a couple of years ago. And they didn't even contact me...
06.03.2026 17:01
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The British press, especially Daily Mail etc are best to be avoided. I had something like that (on a smaller scale) a couple of years ago. And they didn't even contact me...
Sorry, no. I haven't seen anything
Quote from a book (in Russian) that describes ethanol quotas in the Soviet military industry
It's only partially a joke that the entire Soviet military industrial complex was a ploy to get access to a legal source of ethanol... (From elib.biblioatom.ru/text/tremaso...)
In January @russianforces.org pointed out odd behaviour from the Russian ELS/TUNDRA satellite early warning system. The co-ordinated westward drift in apogee longitude appears to have ended in a co-ordinated manner. 🧵⬇️
bsky.app/profile/coas...
Apply now to the Scoville Fellowship! ⤵️
bsky.app/profile/scov...
The French nuclear test on May 1, 1962. It is known as the Béryl incident - apparently, there was serious release of radioactivity. But the film does not mention it at all. Maybe that was why it was made www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHMr... The explosion is at 11:45.
Of course. But it would be okay to say "at Lop Nur site" then. I wouldn't make much of it, but I thought it's interesting to note.
Note that Yeaw said "right near to Lop Nur site" www.youtube.com/live/LHEdJ5e... cc: @stevenjgibbons.bsky.social
There is a reason "only" is in parentheses.
Surprise, surprise--the military say that they are the (only) people to deal with the threat that they have identified.
There are some interesting details, like people in Morocco(?) watching B-52s. Or the idea of rescue missions in the enemy territory. Or "We failed in our mission. 60 million casualties."
Wouldn't it be correct to say that the war in Ukraine has shown that Russian "escalate to de-escalate" is not a thing?
A fascinating film from 1958, originally classified (h/t @wellerstein.bsky.social). The insanity of the scenario is staggering. Not to mention that the Soviet Union had, like, one and a half bomber. (In a way, it's anti-House of Dynamite, everybody is very calm.) youtu.be/jbSI6Tyc6AQ?...
They did, but I don't think they managed to get the weapons
No.
The post on the website russianforces.org/blog/2026/02... and on Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf.... Direct link to pdf russianforces.org/podvig/Podvi... 2/2
Fire on the Yekaterinburg submarine in December 2011
I have a working paper that looks into the history of (some) Soviet and Russian false alarms and nuclear weapons incidents. A short summary (and a link to the full paper) is in the post. Links below. (Image: Fire on the Yekaterinburg submarine in 2011) 1/2
A data point on decoupling. The Soviet Union did an experiment back in 1976. 36-meter cavity (from another explosion), 10 kt, 15-fold signal reduction. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, p. 477)
Yes, it works. Thanks!
Taught about the "decision to use the atomic bomb" a bit today, and the thing the students were audibly the most surprised by was Nagasaki being written in, by hand, on the penultimate draft of the strike order, after Kyoto had been definitely removed from the list for the final time.
Do you have the text of this editorial? It's paywalled. (Someone posted English translation on Reddit, but it would be good to have the original.) Btw, there is no shortage of (crazy) ideas about the launch authority, e.g. warontherocks.com/2026/01/is-i...
The difference between zero enrichment in Iran and a couple of thousand centrifuges in Iran is quite modest, since Iran has shown the ability to install almost that many in a month. Some compromise there would be better than going back to military strikes, with all their risks and uncertainties.
Launch of Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk
Nine ministry of defense satellites launched from Plesetsk on Feb 5. The missions are not yet clear. One, Cosmos-2600, is on sun-synchronous orbit with altitude about 325 km. Others are at about 500 km orbits. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/02... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Those of you who are lucky to be in Paris, don't miss the chance to see Martin Parr's photos at Jeu de Paume. He is really good.
Russia takes back the commitment to stay within New START limits for one year, but leaves some room for doing it de facto (or together with the US). However, Putin's September initiative seemed only conditioned on the US response after a year, so maybe we'll see it again. mid.ru/ru/press_ser...
The Soviet Union, of course, had no weapons or delivery systems to do anything like this in 1954
"You cannot have a treaty that is better than the general status of your relationship. So the fact that there is no treaty is a reflection of what’s happening” more broadly between the US and Russia, said Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project.
@russianforces.org is pretty spot-on here. New START's probable expiry reflects the broader state of relations between Russia, the US, and China.
Those poor relations are the fundamental source of nuclear risk, rather than the existence or not of a specific treaty.
www.ft.com/content/fd1d...
The post on the website russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... and on Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf... Subscribe if you prefer to receive my post by mail. It's free. 2/2
Personnel at Minot AFB demonstrate the capability to return a Minuteman III missile to a three-warhead configuration during a snap exercise in July 2020.
What to expect when New START expires on 5 February 2026? Russia is likely to stick to its offer to stay within the limits. The US is likely to go for upload, but there are options about when and how. Links to the post below. 1/2
NUKEMAP is apparently making guest appearances on the London metro, to the surprise of many (including me — but I explicitly make it clear people can use its imagery for whatever without asking me!)